Archives of “January 2020” month

rss

US government has denied an entry visa to Iran’s foreign minister Zarif

  
Analysis, Politics

Zarif was to address the United Nations Security Council but has been denied entry into the United States.

Foreign Policy reports:
  • The Iranian government was awaiting word on the visa Monday when a Trump administration official phoned U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres to inform him that the United States would not allow Zarif into the country, according to the Washington-based diplomatic source.
Zarif was to address the United Nations Security Council but has been denied entry into the United States. 
This sort of diplomatic spat is better than a shooting war.

US major indices close at session highs

  
Analysis, US Market

Major indices all erase early declines

The Dow was down as was just -217 points and is closing up 69 points.
The NASDAQ index is down -77 points and is closing up 51 points
The S&P was down -20 points, and is closing up 11.4 points
It is a big turnaround day for major indices:
More details of the closes are showing:
  • S&P index, +11.45 points or 0.35% to 3246.29
  • NASDAQ index up 50.695 points or 0.56% to 9071.46
  • Dow index 68.67 points or 0.24% to 28703.55
Some winners include:
  • Slack, +4.74%
  • Netflix, +3.03%
  • Alphabet, +2.76%
  • Tesla, +1.97%
  • Facebook, +1.93%
  • Amazon, +1.54%
  • GE, +1.42%
  • Stryker, +1.32%
  • General Mills, +1.23%
  • McDonald’s, +1.11%
  • General Dynamics, +1.10%
Some losers include:
  • Under Armor, -6.41%
  • Alcoa, -2.28%
  • Lam research, -1.82%
  • Micron, -1.80%
  • General Motors, -1.27%
  • Beyond Meat, -1.13%
  • Target, -10.91%
  • Nucor, -0.83%
  • Starbucks, -0.80%
  • Chipotle, -0.77%

CFTC commitments of traders report. GBP longs are the largest long position since May 2018.

  
Analysis, Forex

Forex futures positioning data for the week ending Tuesday, December 31, 2019

  • EUR short 74K vs 72K short last week. Shorts increased by 2K
  • GBP long 12K vs 8K short last week. Longs increased by 4K
  • JPY short 25K vs 33K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 8k
  • CHF short 6K vs 10K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 4K
  • AUD short 38k vs 46K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 8K
  • NZD short 5K vs 8K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 3K
  • CAD long 12k vs 9K long last week. Longs increased by 3K

Highlights:

  • The GBP’s longs increased by 4K.  Last week, the position swung around from being short to long.  The long position is the largest since May 2018.
Forex futures positioning data for the week ending Tuesday, December 31, 2019_
  • EUR shorts remained fairly hefty although little changed from last week. The position is the biggest with the AUD the second-largest speculative position
  • The AUD shorts – although the 2nd largest speculative position – was trimmed by 8K
  • GBP, CHF, NZD and CAD positions are all within 12K of being square

Some geopolitical comments from China and France are hitting the news wires

  
Analysis, Politics
#  #  #  #

Speaking on the Middle East risks

France’s foreign minister is saying:
  • if tensions are not diffused today than there is a real risk of war in Middle East
  • there is still room for diplomacy on Iran crisis
  • Iran must refrain from reacting, start broader talks
  • says Soleimani was a key player in destabilizing the region
  • latest decision by Iranians enables them to enrich uranium without constraints
  • we can question the validity of nuclear deal in long-term
  • decision on triggering Iran nuclear deal dispute mechanism process will be made in coming days
meanwhile China is saying:
  • US unilateral use of force has violated international law and destabilizes the region
  • Urges US not to use a further force in Middle East, calls on all parties to exercise maximum restraint

Finally, the Trump administration has said that they would provide closed-door briefing on Iran to the full US Senate on Wednesday.  Secretary of State Pompeo, defense secretary Esper and CIA director Haspel, and Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman Milley will address the Senate.

I guess the earlier tweet by Pres. Trump will be stepped up with some more formal communication.
Speaking on the Middle East risksFrench Foreign Minister says

Bitcoin off to a weak start in 2020

  
Analysis, BITCOIN
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Bitcoin on Coinbase is down $-265 and back down below $7000

The price of bitcoin is off to a weak start in 2020. The price on Coinbase is trading down $265 at $6951.83.  The hi reached $7217. The low reached $6903.
Bitcoin on Coinbase is down $-265 and back down below $7000
In addition to breaking back below the natural level of $7000, the price is moving further away from its 100 and 200 hour moving averages. Those moving averages currently come in at $7219.51 and $7231.48 respectively.
Over the last 7 or so trading days the price has been fluctuating below and then above those moving averages. The high last week extended up to $7531 after breaking above the moving averages at $7239 on December 28.
The price move back below the moving averages on December 30. They were retested on December 31 and again on January 1 before rotating back to the downside yesterday. Bearish
In addition to the fall below the moving averages, the price today also fell below the 50% retracement of the move up from the December 18 low at $7059.50. Bearish.
That break targeted the 61.8% retracement at $6910.93 next. Buyers have leaned near that retracement level. We are currently seeing a modest bounce. It will likely take a move back above the 50% retracement level at $7059.50 to solicit more buying.
Should the price break below the 61.8% retracement, however, I would expect further downside momentum. The low price in December reached down to $6430. That would be a target on increased selling pressure.

Day 1 of 2020 and record closes for the major indices, and at session highs too.

  
Analysis, US Market
#  #  #  #  #  #  #

NASDAQ index leads the way with a gain over 1.33%

It is day one of 2020 and the major indices are all closing at record levels. The NASDAQ index is leading the way with a gain over 1%.
The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index rose 27.21 points or 0.84% to 3257.98. The high price was at 3258.14. The low extended to 3235.53
  • NASDAQ index rose 119.58 points or 1.33% to 9092.18. The high reached 9093.43. The low extended to 9010.89
  • Dow industrial average rose 331.51 points or 1.16% to 28869.95. The high reached 28872.80. The low extended to 28627.77
It is only one day, but the markets are starting off with a flourish in 2020.  Apple reached $300.00 and is closing above the $300 level for the first time ever (closing at $300.35).   For the day Apple rose $6.70 or 2.28%.
Other big gainers among the big names include:
  • AMD, +7.06%
  • Tencent, +3.77%
  • Alibaba, +3.61%
  • Northrop Grumman rose 3.39%
  • micron, +3.03%
  • Tesla, +2.87%
  • Amazon rose 2.72%
  • Salesforce rose 2.69%
  • Disney rose to 2.43%
  • PayPal rose 2.39%
  • Apple rose 2.28%
  • Facebook rose 2.21%
  • Alphabet rose 2.19%

Laggards include:

  • General Mills, -2.67%
  • Target, -1.68%
  • Bristol-Myers Squibb, -1.23%
  • Procter & Gamble, -1.15%
  • Costco, -0.83%
  • Papa John’s, -0.46%
  • Coca-Cola, -0.63%
  • Wells Fargo, -0.04%
Go to top