Global bond bubble continues to inflate. Value of global bonds gained $300 bn last week to near all-time high $56.5tn
Archives of “November 25, 2019” day
rss“55% of the world’s central banks are ‘relaxing’ again.”
Although the S&P 500 has risen significantly this year, the statistics indicate more gains for the next.
Trading places
Steroids across the globe to aid ailing global growth !
China foreign ministry: US economic bullying flouts principle of market economy
The Global Times citing some comments by the Chinese foreign ministry
The comments are via a series of tweets:
“The #US is used to suppressing specific countries and enterprises without any solid evidence, said Chinese FM, slamming the #FCC for barring China’s #Huawei and #ZTE from supplying US carriers in rural areas.
This economic bullying by the #US side blatantly flouts US’ principle of market economy. If this principle does not need to be adhered to, other countries can also do the same to US companies: Chinese FM”
This is not anything new really. We have heard these comments before as they have constantly voiced out their displeasure over the Huawei issue. But the warning on other countries potentially being preferred as business/trade partners is one to just be wary of.
Germany November Ifo business climate index 95.0 vs 95.0 expected
Latest data released by Ifo – 25 November 2019
- Prior 94.6; revised to 94.7
- Expectations 92.1 vs 92.5 expected
- Prior 91.5; revised to 91.6
- Current assessment 97.9 vs 97.9 expected
- Prior 97.8
Slight delay in the release by the source. A measure of business conditions, sentiment and expectations towards the German economy.
The readings are within expectations and reaffirms some stability in sentiment and outlook towards the German economy so far in Q4. That said, the overall confidence levels remain low with risks to the economy still ever present.
EUR/USD keeps steady at 1.1021, near unchanged levels on the day currently.
Gold eases to one-week low to start the day
Trade optimism sees gold keep lower on the day
Gold buyers tried for a move higher to seize near-term control on Friday but the break was hit by a stronger dollar following more solid US data. That helped to give sellers a reason to claim near-term control and price is now at one-week lows under $1,460.
Price is currently more or less testing minor support around $1,456.45 with a break there likely to see price action move towards a test of the $1,450 level next.
The poor start to today isn’t helped by more positive US-China trade headlines and the worry for gold will be if this sort of narrative keeps up over the next few weeks.
On the daily chart, price is already under the 100-day moving average @ ~$1,483 and we could see a sharper correction if the fundamentals continue to go against gold – especially once price firmly locks in a move below $1,450.
With the Fed also seen on the sidelines now and there being some green shoots about a global economic recovery, I reckon the potential secondary push higher in gold may have to rest for a little bit before gaining real traction again.
That said, one thing to watch as we look towards late December and January is the seasonal factor. Gold tends to see solid gains ahead of the Lunar New Year with January easily being the best month of gains (six years in a row now) with some spillovers to late December observed over the last two years too:
% change in gold for each month during the last 10 years