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France’s Macron demands Nov 15 Brexit deadline – report

Telegraph report

Macron is drawing a line in the sand. However Macron tends to draw lines in very fine sand, or particularly windy days. A report from BBC says Johnson asked Macron to veto the extension.
Here is the Telegraph report.
The French President’s hardline stance, designed to exert maximum pressure on MPs in London to back the deal,  has horrified diplomats in Brussels, who fear the short delay raises the risk of an accidental no deal Brexit.
Separately, a report from Reuters confirms there will be no EU decision on an extension today and that they will meet again on Friday. The report says a 3-month extension is most likely.
This is from Sky News:

European equity close: Solid gains in the UK and Germany

Closing changes in the main European bourses:

Closing changes in the main European bourses:
  • UK FTSE 100 +0.65%
  • French CAC flat
  • German DAX +0.4%
  • Italy MIB -0.6%
  • Spain IBEX flat
Those are some significant divergences but what’s notable to me is the strong close in the FTSE 100 and rise above the October 14 high. The combination of FX and equity gains could make UK stocks the place to be in the months ahead.

Bitcoin falls to the lowest level since early June

5 month low for the digital current

the price of bitcoin has fallen sharply in trading today.  On Coinbase, the digital currency is trading down $585 at $7535.  The low for the day reached $7448.53. That took the price to the lowest level since June 5.

5 month low for the digital current 

On the run lower the pair fell below the September and October lows (see the daily chart above). The lowest of those swing levels came in at $7701. That is now close risk for sellers.
The next target on the downside will be the June 5 low at $7427.  A break of that level look toward the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the December 2018 low to the June 2019 high. That retracement level comes in at $7231.40.  Fallen below that level opens up the door toward the may 17 low at $6600.
The price of bitcoin move below its 200 day moving average (green line in the chart above) on September 26.  Since then, there have been 4 days when the price traded back above that moving average line (the last time was on October 11), but there have been no closes above that key moving average.  The price has also remain below its 50% retracement at $8498.67 also since October 11.
The bears remain in control for the digital currency.
Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg will be grilled on Capitol Hill today on their Libra initiative.  The expectations are that the Congressional leaders will not be 2 supportive of their proposal.

Trump will make a statement on Syria conflict at 1500 GMT (11 am ET)

Trump comments to come later

Trump has been tweeting for the past hour with the usual stuff on impeachment and whatever else Fox Business is talking about.
Big success on the Turkey/Syria Border. Safe Zone created! Ceasefire has held and combat missions have ended. Kurds are safe and have worked very nicely with us. Captured ISIS prisoners secured. I will be making a statement at 11:00 A.M. from the White House. Thank you!
Expect the statement to be along those lines but there is always a high risk of Trump going off-script.

Boris Johnson spokesman: If EU offers Jan extension, there will need to be an election

Johnson spokesman:

  • Johnson spoke to Tusk and told him he still opposes an extension
  • No meeting of minds with Corbyn after meeting
  • Johnson wants to get his deal done by Oct 31 but yesterday’s vote makes no-deal more likely
  • If an extension is vetoed, we have a plan to get it done
  • Asked if he could hold an election before Christmas, spokesman says ‘yes’
The Irish PM said if there is no consensus on extension, EU leaders would need to meeting possibly on Monday, maybe even Friday.
A Labour spokesman said there is a strong likelihood the EU will grant an extension along the lines of what was requested.

Russia’s Novak: No official proposals from OPEC+ members to change deal

Comments by Russian energy minister, Alexander Novak

Oil
  • Says all OPEC+ members need to comply with the current deal in full
Yesterday, we saw headlines of potential deeper output cuts by OPEC and that helped to give oil prices a lift in overnight trading.
As much as I want to be optimistic about that, I’d reserve judgment as it is still early days before we get to the next OPEC+ meeting in December.
Then, there is the issue of compliance as Novak noted above as well. Deeper cuts are pointless if they cannot get every contributing nation on board with 100% compliance.

Brexit: JP Morgan says if offered short extension, expects Johnson to attempt to pass WAB

They also say that he will probably succeed in doing so in such a scenario

Pretty much stating the obvious but okay.

There’s also whispers that the government is mulling over calling a no-confidence motion in itself, to ensure that they do get to an election in case Labour is “playing games”.
But with the numbers to get a deal through, it remains to be seen if we will get there. Either way, even if all of this goes well for Johnson and the government, this is just the first hurdle. 2020 will bring another new season to the Brexit drama.

Hong Kong formally withdraws extradition bill

The Hong Kong government formally withdrew a controversial extradition bill on Wednesday, following months of social unrest and political turmoil that have upended the city’s normally peaceful image.

The secretary for security, John Lee Ka-chiu, made the announcement before lawmakers in the chamber of the Legislative Council. The move meets one of the five demands by anti-government demonstrators, who are also calling for the resignation of Chief Executive Carrie Lam.

Lee’s announcement was met with shouts from pro-democracy lawmakers. Civic Party member Kwok Ka-ki was expelled after calling for Lee’s resignation while Lee was still addressing the chamber. Other pro-democracy lawmakers held up slogans reading, “Lee Ka-chiu step down.”

Meanwhile, the Hong Kong man whose alleged killing of his girlfriend in Taiwan prompted the crisis over the bill on Wednesday was released from prison on a lesser offense of money laundering. The suspect, Chan Tong-kai, has said that he would turn himself in to Taiwanese authorities.

The move to introduce the bill earlier this year was prompted by a legal dilemma over the murder suspect because the governments of Hong Kong and Taiwan do not have an extradition treaty. Chan was originally sentenced to 29 months in prison in Hong Kong but was released after serving 18 months.

The Hong Kong government had said the legal loophole needed to be closed to uphold justice and align the city’s laws with international standards. But the proposed law would also have paved the way for criminal suspects to be sent to mainland China, which many say lacks an independent judiciary system.

Chan Tong-kai, a Hong Kong citizen who was accused of murdering his girlfriend in Taiwan last year, leaves from Pik Uk Prison in Hong Kong on Oct. 23.   © Reuters

Widespread peaceful demonstrations against the bill drew millions of people to the streets in early June. Opponents of the legislation said at the time that the proposed law could have been used by mainland authorities to extradite anyone in Hong Kong to China, including Beijing’s political adversaries.

Over the past few months, protests have devolved into widespread anti-government and anti-China demonstrations, with many calling for a more democratic society and greater accountability to its citizens.

Police have used tear gas, rubber bullets, water cannons and sponge grenades to disperse crowds, as some hard-line protesters have set fires at rail stations, smashed store fronts and vandalized other places of business with connections to mainland China or those perceived to be against the protests.

On Oct. 1 — the day Beijing held ceremonies to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China — a policeman shot an 18-year-old man while he was attacking officers. That marked the first time a demonstrator was hit by live ammunition since the protests began.

As violent clashes between protesters and police continued into autumn, Lam invoked emergency powers on Oct. 4 to ban the wearing of face masks during demonstrations. But tens of thousands of protesters have defied the ban to hide their identity and protect themselves against tear gas.

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