Archives of “October 7, 2019” day

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China ready to do deal on parts of deal both sides agree on. But tougher issues to be discussed next year

  
  Analysis
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That’s not as good as it sounds

Fox Business reports that China’s commerce ministry told the US it’s prepared to do a deal on the parts of negotiations both sides agree upon. The ministry told Fox they’re prepared to set out a timetable for the harder issues to be worked out next year.
This report has boosted risk trades but it’s not all it seems. US officials — including Trump — have said many times that they want a big deal or no deal.
He said it on TV about 30 minutes ago but it’s moving the market now as it does the rounds. A reader who caught the clip on TV also tells us it wasn’t as positive as the spin that’s coming out.
Of course that can change and the US might be bluffing but I don’t see this being received as unambiguously good news. If anything, the initial market reaction might have it wrong as USD/JPY rises and gold falls.
USD/JPY:
USDJPY
Isn’t this just another way of saying ‘If you like what we’re offering, take it; as for the parts you don’t like, we can talk about those some other time, because we’re not going to discuss those now.’.

Trump warns he will obliterate Turkey if they go offside

  
  Analysis
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Trump talks about his “great and unmatched wisdom”

Another tweet on Turkey:
As I have stated strongly before, and just to reiterate, if Turkey does anything that I, in my great and unmatched wisdom, consider to be off limits, I will totally destroy and obliterate the Economy of Turkey (I’ve done before!). They must, with Europe and others, watch over…the captured ISIS fighters and families. The U.S. has done far more than anyone could have ever expected, including the capture of 100% of the ISIS Caliphate. It is time now for others in the region, some of great wealth, to protect their own territory. THE USA IS GREAT!
The Turkish lira is under pressure today on speculation they will launch offensives into Turkey.

White House memo outlines topics for US-China trade talks

  
  Analysis
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Talks to resume Thursday

The White House press secretary confirmed that US-China talks will resume on Thursday with Vice Premier Liu He to meet with Lighthizer and Mnuchin. The statement doesn’t outline when talks are expected to end but they are believed to be scheduled for at least two days.
The statement also notes six topics of discussion:
  • Forced technology transfer
  • Intellectual property rights
  • Services
  • Non-tariff barriers
  • Agriculture
  • Enforcement

US lawmakers blindsided by Trump’s decision to leave Syria

  
  Analysis

Republican senator Lindsey Graham calls it a disaster in the making

Senate Judiciary Committee leader Lindsay Graham golfed with Trump last week but he was blindsided by the President’s announcement that he was pulling troops out of Syria and will allow Turkey to launch operations against Kurds in Northern Syria.
He tweeted:
I don’t know all the details regarding President Trump’s decision in northern Syria. In process of setting up phone call with Secretary Pompeo. If press reports are accurate this is a disaster in the making.
  • Ensures ISIS comeback.
  • Forces Kurds to align with Assad and Iran.
  • Destroys Turkey’s relationship with U.S. Congress.
  • Will be a stain on America’s honor for abandoning the Kurds.
Also, if this plan goes forward will introduce Senate resolution opposing and asking for reversal of this decision. Expect it will receive strong bipartisan support.
Sen Macro Rubio also said leaving the country would be a ‘grave mistake’.
Republican senator Lindsey Graham calls it a disaster in the making

6 Stages Of A Trader

  
Analysis, Education
  Tags

If we are to become a great trader we will go through some variation of all 6 of these stages. Being aware of these stages can help you identify where you are now and where you need to eventually be. Stage

One: The Mystification Stage

Stage Two: The Hot Pot Stage

Stage Three: The Cynical Skepticism Stage

Stage Four: The Squiggle Trader Stage

Stage Five: The Inwardly-Bound Stage

Stage Six: Mastery

China’s gold reserves data shows the country bought more again in September – up for the 10th month in a row

  
Analysis, Gold / Silver
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Data from the People’s Bank of China for the month of September 2019

  • China’s gold holdings 62.64 mln ounces compared with 62.45 at the end of August
This is the 10th month in succession gold holdings have increased in China.

More on China said to be offering less to US in this week’s forthcoming trade talks

  
  Analysis

The headline is here from earlier: Trade talks – reports China will not consider negotiating some key US complaints

As you would expect, AUD/JPY is lower on this. Just above 72.00 as I update, from circa 72.35 late Friday US time.
For more, Bloomberg have the piece up on the web, here.
  • Vice Premier Liu He, who will lead the Chinese contingent in high-level talks that begin Thursday, told visiting dignitaries he would bring an offer to Washington that won’t include commitments on reforming Chinese industrial policy or the government subsidies that have been the target of longstanding U.S. complaints, one of the people said.
As I asked in the earlier post, is anyone surprised by this?
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