Archives of “September 2019” month

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China Daily say’s HK’s Lam withdrawal of extradition bill leaves no excuse for further violence

  
  Analysis
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State-run China Daily says Lam has offered “a sincere and earnest response to the voice of the community … (that) could be interpreted as an olive branch extended to those who have opposed the bill over the past few months”.

  • “protesters now have no excuse to continue violence”
Comes via Reuters 
State-run China Daily says Lam has offered "a sincere and earnest response to the voice of the community ... (that) could be interpreted as an olive branch extended to those who have opposed the bill over the past few months".

A couple of Brexit scenarios to ponder (and what they mean for EUR/GBP)

  
Analysis, Forex
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An overnight bank note (Rabo) on Brexit and euro / sterling

(in brief, and note this prior to Wednesday’s UK voting)
If legislation to rule out a no deal Brexit is rushed through parliament, the pound can be expected to rise. If it were decided that the Brexit deadline were to be extended but that the legal default position of the UK remains that a no deal Brexit could still take place at a future date, GBP may also rise, but by a lesser amount – since kicking the can down the road is not a solution.
  • In this scenario we would expect EUR/GBP to be trading in the 0.90 area on a 1 to 3 month horizon.
If a no deal Brexit is ruled out will would expect EUR/GBP to clamber back towards the 0.86 area in 3 months. 
If fresh legislation is not passed and the UK remains on course for a no deal Brexit in October we would expect EUR/GBP to rise firstly back towards the recent high in the 0.9325 area. 
How high EUR/GBP can go may then depend on whether the EU summit in mid-October brings any compromises.” “On a no deal Brexit on October 31, we expect EUR/GBP to rise towards parity.

US stocks close near session highs for the day

  
Analysis, US Market
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Nasdaq up 1.30%.  S&P up 1.08%

The US stocks are closing not far off the highs for the day, with the Nasdaq leading the way higher. Ever sector in the S&P was higher.  Dow closes higher for the 4th time in 5 sesssions.
The final numbers are showing:
  • The S&P index closed up 31.51 points or 1.08% at 2937.78
  • The Nasdaq index closed up 102.72 points or 1.30% at 7976.87
  • The Dow index closed up 237.45 points or 0.91% at 26355.42
The % changes and ranges are outlined below. Yesterday, the indexes in US and Europe traded below the 0% line for all of the day. Today, the major indices all traded above the 0.0% line alll day.   All indices opened higher and traded higher.

Solid up day for the European stock indices today

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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Major indices are all in the black

The major European stock indices are ending the day with solid gains, helped by decreased attention in Hong Kong, increasing hope for US/China relations, less no-deal risk for the UK, and more dovish Fed officials (the ECB is set to act in September too).
The provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX, +0.94%
  • France’s CAC, +1.21%
  • UK’s FTSE, +0.60%
  • Spains Ibex, +0.61%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +1.58%
In the benchmark 10 year note sector in Europe, yields are higher as well (with the exception of Italy).
Major indices are all in the blackIn other markets as London/European traders look to exit:
  • spot gold is near unchanged at $1547. The high price reached $1550.23. The low extended to $1533.93
  • WTI crude oil futures are up $2.25 or 4.17% at $56.17. That is near the high price for the day at $56.22. The US impose tighter sanctions on Iran today.
In the US stock market major indices are enjoying solid gains as well.  A snapshot of the market currently shows:
  • S&P index 27 points or 0.93% at 2933.22
  • NASDAQ composite index is up 84 points or 1.07% at 7958.13
  • Dow Jones industrial average is up 212 points or 0.81% at 26329.70
US yields have come off high levels and trade mixed with the longer and up marginally and the shorter end unchanged or down marginally:
US yields are trading mixedA snapshot of the forex market shows that the GBP is still the strongest of the majors (but off earlier higher levels). The JPY and USD remain the weakest.  The CAD  has gotten stronger on stronger oil and a was dovish Bank of Canada statement.

Oil jumps 4% on better sentiment and tighter Iran sanctions

  
Analysis, Crude

Sanctions in play and WTI up $2.21 to $56.15

Sanctions in play and WTI up $2.21 to $56.15
Reports from Iran suggest leaders will scale back its commitments to the 2015 nuclear deal within hours.
That comes a short time after the US announced a fresh round of sanctions  and promises to do more. The aim is to bring Iran oil exports to zero.
Technically, even with the big jump today we’re still within the range of the two prior trading sessions. Beyond that, the trend towards consolidation has been ongoing for more than a month with oil locked in a $53-57 range.
That’s similar of the ‘box’ in the S&P 500 and suggests both could break out at the same time and could confirm one another.
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