Archives of “September 27, 2019” day

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US considering limits on US portfolio flows into China

  
  Analysis
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That would be big

Trump and Xi
That’s not a good sign for trade talks.
Bloomberg reports that the White House is discussing ways to limit US investors portfolio flows into China in a move that would be akin to capital restrictions.
It would be a major escalation in the trade war.
They’re also considering de-listing Chiense companies from US exchanges, examining limits on the Chinese companies included in stock indexes managed by US firms.
The report says Trump has given a greenlight to the discussions but that any plan would be subject to his approval.
This sounds a bit like a leak to put pressure on China but the trade is to de-risk and ask questions later. Chinese stocks are getting hit particularly hard.
I find it hard to believe that we’re headed towards a true, lasting trade deal when this kind of thing is on the table.

Trump says Iran asked him to lift sanctions in order to meet, he said no

  
Analysis, Politics
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The Iran side wasn’t bluffing

That’s what they said all along.
All the talk about a meeting was truly much ado about nothing.
What’s surprised me in Trump’s presidency is what world leaders will give up just for a meeting. In the infamous call with Ukraine’s leader, all the back channels were about securing a move on the prosecutor before a call. Then on the call, Trump wanted more in order to meet. What’s so great about meeting the President?

GBP heads up for traders: What you need to know 101

  
Analysis, Forex
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GBP

GBP
Ok, let’s summarise where we are with the GBP
We are negative GBP going into today on the basis that PM Johnson is going for his ‘do or doe’ Brexit approach. Will he prorogue parliament again? Will he ignore the Benn Bill? He’ll try, probably so GBP neagtive
Saunders dumps the GBP: The BoE may jump in and cut rates even before Brexit negotiations are done. GBP negative this am and we saw a 40+ spike lower on GBPUSD. Next target is 1.2250.
The problem 
So, what’s the problem for shorts? Only this – positive Brexit news.Outlier, but possible.
What to do?
Keep a short bias until there is a reason not to. Then, most probably the obvious option will be to go with a long bias
Just remember that Brexit GBP trading is short quick swings, so don’t hold shorts into the weekend and take profits when you have them. Don’t wait for 2.5 million pips (unless we get a surprise deal announcement, of course;-)).

IEA Chief: May lower oil demand growth expectations for 2019

  
Analysis, Crude

IEA, via Reuters

IEA, via Reuters
  • IEA Chief may lower oil demand growth for 2020 if Global economy weakens further
  • Diversfying oil and natural gas imports is a natural way for Asian buyers to reduce energy security risks
  • Very lucrative time for Asian buyers to diversify gas imports as buyers have stronger hand

US Oil unfazed.

IEA, via Reuters

IEA, via Reuters
  • IEA Chief may lower oil demand growth for 2020 if Global economy weakens further
  • Diversfying oil and natural gas imports is a natural way for Asian buyers to reduce energy security risks
  • Very lucrative time for Asian buyers to diversify gas imports as buyers have stronger hand

US Oil unfazed.

China Industrial profits for August -2.0% y/y (vs. prior +2.6%)

  
  Analysis
  Tags

These have been on a downward trend. YTD they are down 1.7%

While there was no survey conducted to gather the ‘expected’ expectations I had seen were for a drop after the previous months tick up. The data result is a negative input for AUD, less profits mean less investment, less employment and so forth. Not a surpsiing development though if you’ve been following along on China.
NBS remarks on the data, say the result is due to output slowdown and fall in prices.
Yeah, those’ll do it.

US stocks suffer and close lower on the day

  
Analysis, US Market

Nasdaq does not reach into positive territory today

The USD major indices are closing lower on the day, led by the Nasdaq index.   For the day, the Nasdaq did not reach the ‘black” (i.e., positive). Although also closing lower, the S&P and Dow each saw a positive value at some point of the day.
The final numbers are showing:
  • the S&P fell -7.25 points or -0.24% at 2977.62
  • The NASDAQ fell -46.724 points or -0.58% at 8030.66
  • The Dow fell -79.59 points or -0.30% at 26891.13.
The percentage change range and close % are outlined in the chart below. European shares will close higher on the day.
Nasdaq does not reach into positive territory todayRanking the winners and losers globaly, the UK FTSE was the biggest winner, while the Russell 2000 in the US was the weakest.
The ranking of the global stock market percentage changes for the day
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