IAEA report
- Iran prepping further steps to expand uranium stockpile
- Further raises unclear capacity in contravention to deal
That’s not going to diffuse tensions.
Archives of “September 26, 2019” day
rssUS House Intel publishes whistleblower complaint on Trump’s Ukraine call
Full text is out
It’s just out now. The text is here.
It’s not just about the call, but about the follow-up and potential actions afterwards, including a trip Trump’s lawyer Giuliani made to meet with one of Zelenskyy’s top advisors shortly afterwards. It doesn’t have any information on what may have been discussed.
Overall, I don’t see any kind of fresh smoking gun here but there did appear to be an effort to bury the transcript of the call.
PM Johnson convinced UK will leave EU on October 31
PM Johnson, via Reuters
Speaking to the 1922 committee:
- Good chance we will get a deal despite the surrender act
- Can’t hide from an election forever
- If there is no Brexit deal we will simply come out of the EU
- After coming out, we will come to the electorate as a moderate one nation party
- Takes all threats to lawmakers very seriously and cabinet office is working hard to address that
Looking forward for these Brexit days to end. Such pointless division has been fostered by dragging it out.
GBP still supported on these earlier headlines.
US Q2 GDP third reading 2.0% vs 2.0% expected
The third look at Q2 2019 GDP:
- Initial reading was +2.1%
- Second reading was 2.0%
- Q1 was 3.2%
- Q4 was 1.1%
- GDP y/y 2.3% vs 2.3% in 2nd estimate
Details:
- Personal consumption 4.6% vs 4.7% in 2nd reading
- Initial personal consumption +4.3%
- Consumer spending on durables +13.0% vs +13.0% in 2nd reading
- Business investment -1.0% vs -0.6% in 2nd reading
- Home investment -3.0% vs -2.9% in 2nd reading
- Exports -5.7% vs -5.8% in 2nd reading
- Imports 0.0% vs +0.1% in 2nd reading
- Trade cut 0.68 pp from growth rather than 0.72 pp in 2nd reading
- Corporate profits +3.7% vs +5.1% in 2nd reading
Inflation:
- GDP price index 2.4% vs 2.4% in 2nd reading
- Prior GDP price index 1.1%
- Core PCE 1.9% vs 1.7% in 2nd reading
- Prior core PCE 1.1%
- GDP deflator 2.6% vs +2.5% in 2nd reading
The three notable changes are all highlighted. Business investment was even worse than believed and inflation was higher. The revision lower in business investment made it the worst quarter by that metric since Q4 2015.
A big drag on business investment was investment in structures, which fell at an 11.1% pace.
The importance of services in the world economy
Saudi Aramco lures sovereign funds to $2 trillion IPO valuation
Reuters, exclusive
This just out from Reuters
‘State-owned Saudi Aramco has approached Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA), Singapore’s GIC and other sovereign wealth funds to invest in the domestic leg of the oil giant’s listing at it seeks to achieve a $2 trillion (1.6 trillion pounds) valuation, sources said’
IPO process still carrying on, despite the drone attacks mid-month.
‘Speculative Strategy’:
The Fourth Axiom tells you not to build your speculative program on a basis of forecasts, because it won’t work. Disregard all prognostications. In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. Mark that word. Nobody.
Of course, we all wonder what will happen, and we all worry about it. But to seek escape from that worry by leaning on predictions is a formula for poverty. The successful speculator bases no moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what does happen.
Design your speculative program on the basis of quick reactions to events that you can actually see developing in the present. Naturally, in selecting an investment and committing money to it, you harbor the hope that its future will be bright. The hope is presumably based on careful study and hard thinking. Your act of committing dollars to the venture is itself a prediction of sorts. You are saying, “I have reason to hope this will succeed.” But don’t let that harden into an oracular pronouncement: “It is bound to succeed because interest rates will come down.” Never, never lose sight of the possibility that you have made a bad bet.
If the speculation does succeed and you find yourself climbing toward a planned ending position, fine, stay with it. If it turns sour despite what all the prophets have promised, remember the Third Axiom. Get out.
Financial Times on Fonterra – record annual loss
More info for NZD traders to ponder, this on New Zealand exporter Fonterra in the Financial Times
On the announcement earlier from the firm.
- Fonterra, the world’s biggest dairy exporter, posted a record annual loss
- will pay out less in dividend payments in future
- net loss… was at the lower end of the company’s previously forecasted range
- second full-year loss in a row
- record loss for its 2019 financial year
—
At the lower end of forecast range of loss is about the only positive in the saga.
UK car output rises for the first time in 15 months in August
A piece of good news for this sector of the UK economy!
Reuters (Link) with the report, in brief:
- car production increased by an annual 3.3% in August
- first rise in 15 months
And, now for the extra bits, maybe not quite so good:
- helped by several factories having moved their summertime shutdowns to April in preparation for the original Brexit date
- BMW, Peugeot, Honda and Jaguar Land Rover all closed factories ranging from a few days to four weeks in April over concerns that Britain’s scheduled departure from the European Union in March could lead to disruption, including delays to the arrival of parts
“Today’s figures mask the underlying downward trend and strengthening global headwinds facing the sector, including international trade tensions, massive technological upheaval and, in the UK, political and economic uncertainty,” said SMMT Chief Executive Mike Hawes.
“We now need parliament and government to redouble efforts to get a deal that maintains free and frictionless trade.”
Yeah, about that ….
Trump impeachment drama muddles China deal timeline
As U.S. President Donald Trump prepares for high-level trade negotiations with China next month, a sharp turn of events has blurred the timeline of a deal.
On Tuesday, Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi shocked the nation when she announced an impeachment inquiry into Trump. Pelosi had resisted calls to start formal proceedings against the president during and after the Mueller investigation, but the latest allegations about Trump pressing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to investigate former U.S. Vice President and Trump’s political rival Joe Biden’s family pushed her to act.
Trump on Wednesday sought to shift the focus away from the inquiry, praising the U.S. economy and an imminent trade deal with China.
“We have created the greatest economy in the history of our country, the greatest economy in the world…. Right now China is way behind us and they will never catch us if we have smart leadership,” Trump told reporters. “We have picked up trillions of dollars and they have lost trillions of dollars and they want to make a deal very badly. It could happen. It could happen sooner than you think.”
The comment came an hour after Trump released a transcription of his phone call with Zelensky from July 25. The president was under pressure from Democrats and some Republicans to make public the transcript after a whistleblower filed a complaint saying he pressured the Ukrainian president to investigate Biden’s son Hunter Biden as well as a Democratic National Committee computer server related to Russian interference in the 2016 election.
Trump said last week that China would like to see someone else win the 2020 presidential election, but they think he is going to win. He has warned Beijing that if the deal comes after the Nov. 3, 2020 election, trade talks will be on “far worse” terms.
U.S. President Donald Trump said a China trade deal could come “sooner than you think.” © AP