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The FOMC September 2019 full statement

FOMC statement from the September 2019 rate decision

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Although household spending has been rising at a strong pace, business fixed investment and exports have weakened. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. In light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-3/4 to 2 percent. This action supports the Committee’s view that sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective are the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook remain. As the Committee contemplates the future path of the target range for the federal funds rate, it will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair, John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Charles L. Evans; and Randal K. Quarles. Voting against the action were James Bullard, who preferred at this meeting to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent; and Esther L. George and Eric S. Rosengren, who preferred to maintain the target range at 2 percent to 2-1/4 percent.

Fed lowers interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected

Highlights of the FOMC statement on September 18, 2019:

  • Fed funds target rate lowered to 1.75%-2.00%
  • Prior Fed funds rate was 2.00%-2.25%
  • IOER lowered to 1.80% vs 1.85% expected
  • IOER spread widened to 20 bps
  • Statement repeats that economic activity is rising at a moderate rate
  • Repeats the labor market remains strong
  • Repeats will act as appropriate to sustain expansion
  • Repeats inflation running below 2%
  • Bullard voted to lower rates more aggressively, George and Rosengren voted for no cuts
  • George and Rosengren dissented previously for no cuts
  • Says household spending been rising at a strong pace vs ‘has picked up from earlier in the year’ prior
  • Adds that exports have weakened
  • Business fixed investment ‘has weakened’ vs ‘has been soft’

There isn’t much of any kind of change in the statement. The market is focusing on the dot plot, which doesn’t show another cut this year and only an 9-8  preference for no cut at all next year.

US Indices recover and closing near session highs

Dow industrial average is down -211 points at lows and closes at up 36 points

The US stocks recovered after the FOMC signaled a 25 basis point cut, but dot plot showed no additional eases for 2019. However, Powell did say enough in his press conference to suggest that the view can change given global risks and potential weakness. As a result, the major indices started to  recover and are ending the session near/at session highs.
Dow industrial average is down -211 points at lows and closes at up 36 points_
The levels at the close are showing:
  • S&P index +1.01 points or 0.03% at 3006.71.  The S&P was down -27.13 point at its lows.
  • NASDAQ index down -8.625 points or -0.11% at 8177.39. The NASDAQ was down -100 points at its lows
  • Dow industrial average up 36.35 points or 0.13% at 27147.29. The Dow was down -211 points at its lows
Great recovery for the major indices after being down for most of the trading day.
After the close, Microsoft announced a 11% increase in dividends and a $40 billion buyback. That has helped to push that stock up to $140.15 currently after closing the session at  $138.52.
Some of the big winners for the day included
  • PNC financial, +1.41%
  • Chipotle, +1.12%
  • DuPont, +1.05%
  • J.P. Morgan, +1.01%
  • Apple, +0.93%
  • Southwest there, +0.90%
  • Stryker, +0.89%
  • Citigroup, +0.86%
  • Deere & Company, +0.84%
  • Microsoft, +0.82%
  • Lockheed Martin, +0.74%
  • Merck, +0.63%
  • Boeing, +0.55%
  • Goldman Sachs, +0.54%
  • Walt Disney, +0.34%
Big losers on the day included:
  • FedEx, -12.93%
  • Chewy, -6.12%
  • Beyond Meat, -3.94%
  • Lyft, -3.0%
  • Rite Aid, -2.54%
  • Box, -2.36%
  • Netflix, -2.36%
  • Slack, -1.95%
  • AMD, -1.84%
  • Adobe, -1.75%
  • AT&T, -1.08%
  • General Mills, -0.93%
  • Caterpillar, -0.87%
  • Mcron, -0.71%
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