Biggest monthly drop in negative yielding debt on record: from $17TN to $14.5TN
Archives of “September 13, 2019” day
rssThe new IMF leader is a rags to riches story
Georgieva opened her first bank account at age 34
The FT has a great profile of Kristalina Georgieva. She is now arguably the world’s top banker and she didn’t even open a bank account herself until she was 34.
Ms Georgieva had a relatively privileged upbringing in Sofia as the daughter of a civil engineer who supervised state road-building projects. Her father was the grandson of the celebrated 19th-century revolutionary Ivan Karshovski, a lawyer and journalist who took part in building the new Bulgarian state following independence from the Ottoman Empire. But her adolescence became fraught after her father became severely ill, plunging the family into dire financial straits and teaching her some enduring lessons
She studied and became an academic in Bulgaria and eventually won a scholarship to study at the London School of Economics in 1987 where she found a bank and deposited her £361 grant and £21 she had brought with her from Bulgaria.
The profile also contains this interesting profile:
As she heads to the IMF, one top World Bank official questioned her suitability. “She doesn’t have the stature,” the official said. “She’s organised and keeps people happy – she’s a yes-person who will do what Macron, or whoever is powerful, wants.”
Argentina’s President better start sending Macron flowers.
European equity close: Solid close to wrap up a great week
Closing changes for the main European equities
- UK FTSE 100 +0.4%
- German DAX +0.6%
- French CAC +0.3%
- Italy MIB +0.4%
- Spain IBEX +0.9%
On the week:
- UK FTSE 100 +1.3%
- German DAX +2.3%
- French CAC +1.1%
- Italy MIB +1.1%
- Spain IBEX +1.7%
Given the gains in the euro and (especially) the pound on the week, the performance was particularly impressive.
The FTSE 100 is right at the 55-day moving average:
US August advance retail sales +0.4% vs +0.2% expected
Retail sales for August 2019:
- Prior was +0.7% (revised to +0.8%)
- Ex autos 0.0% vs +0.1% expected
- Prior ex autos 1.0%
- Ex autos and gas +0.1% vs +0.2%
- Prior ex autos and gas +0.9%
- Control group +0.3% vs +0.3% expected
- Prior control group +1.0% (revised to +0.9%)
The headline is on the strong side and the prior was revised higher as well. Digging into the control group, that was in-line with estimates and the prior was revised a tick lower. Building material sales rose 1.4%.
Overall, the consumer remains very strong and that is going to give the Fed some pause. A cut next week is a done deal but there’s a very good case for Powell to push back against an October cut.
A look at the control group with the 6-month moving average shows how surprising it is that the Fed is cutting.
Is there anything more to the rebound in the pound?
The pound has rallied by more than 4% against the dollar after falling below the 1.2000 level at the start of last week
The pound has been remarkably solid in the past two weeks of trading. While there is some reason to be mildly optimistic as parliament succeeded in turning the Brexit delay bill into law, is it really worth 4% (give or take, minus out dollar weakness today) of optimism when put together with other Brexit developments?
As much as I am skeptical about the pound’s strength, the overwhelming rally today has got me thinking a little. Is it just all about short covering and positioning flows during the quiet period before October strikes?
My previous take was that the range for cable will settle between 1.20 and 1.25 during this period but as we move closer to the upper extreme, this is something to look at in case we observe a potential breakout.
BREAKING :China to add soybeans, pork to tariffs exemption list – state media
Xinhua reports on the latest developments
- Says to support companies purchasing US soybeans, pork
I don’t think this comes as too much of a surprise as it has been touted heavily since yesterday already. This is just the official confirmation of the reports that have been out and about over the past 24 hours.
Nonetheless, it will still keep the “feel good factor” in US-China trade relations throughout this week but we’ll see how things go when both sides sit down face-to-face in October.
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The ECB adds to the growing list of central banks to have cut rates this year
Expect the list to grow longer towards the end of the year
We had three rate cuts yesterday and two new entrants (highlighted) to the list this year. Turkey continued with their Erdogan-style rate cuts but it was the ECB that stole the spotlight as it reduced its deposit facility rate by 10 bps.
Joining them is the Danish central bank as they cut their key rate by 10 bps as well – mirroring the ECB – and that takes the tally above to 38 rate cuts this year.
Expect the list to expand further as we’re nowhere near close to the bottom just yet.
Copper failing to re-enter the wedge, not getting help with the Dollar less than 1% off the highs
commodity futures positioning most crowded long = gold, most crowded short = sugar
