Archives of “August 19, 2019” day

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Japan – Reuters Tankan report – manufacturing index hits lowest since 2013

  
  Analysis
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Reuters Tankan shows Japan manufacturers index -4 in August vs +3 in Jul.y

  • lowest reading since April 2013
  • and this is the first negative reading for the index in over 6 years

Non-manufacturers index +13 in August vs +25 in July

Manufacturers November index seen at +3, non-manufacturers seen unchanged

Commentary via Reuters …nails it:
  • Concerns about weakening global demand intensified
  • growing risk of a U.S. recession
  • Germany’s economy in contraction
  • China’s economy was worsening
  • further soured the outlook for export-reliant economies such as Japan’s
More:
  • “The U.S.-China trade war, Japan’s export curbs to South Korea and the recent yen rises have formed a bottleneck for sales” 
  • “The selling price remains in a downtrend due to expansion of e-commerce markets, while a scheduled sales tax hike keep shoppers on guard against price increases”
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The Reuters monthly poll, tracks the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) tankan quarterly survey
  • conducted July 31-Aug 14
  • total of 258 firms responded

Trump adds: “Tiananmen Square” crackdown in Hong Kong would harm trade deal

  
  Analysis

US President Trump has been on the twitter and also speaking with media.

He has finished, for now, concluding with a warning to China on response to HK protests – says a trade deal with China is more difficult if there is a violent crack down on protestors from the mainland.
Comments also on Mexico and Canada – hopes the new NAFTA agreement will be out up for a vote soon (in Congress)

UK Times reports government secret no‑deal Brexit preparations leaked

  
Analysis, Economy
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Via the Sunday Times (gated), the paper say they have the full copy of an unprecedented leak of government documents

“This is not Project Fear-this is the most realistic assessment of what the public face with no deal. These are likely, basic, reasonable scenarios-not the worst case,” a senior government source told the Sunday Times.
Britain faces shortages of fuel, food and medicine,
  • a three-month meltdown at its ports,
  • a hard border with Ireland
  • rising costs in social care in the event of a no-deal Brexit
Says the Times:
  • The documents … have emerged as the UK looks increasingly likely to crash out of the EU without a deal.
  • Compiled this month by the Cabinet Office
Apart from that, how was the weekend?
Via the Sunday Times (gated), the paper say they have the full copy of an unprecedented leak of government documents 

German Finance Minister says could deploy up to 50bn EUR of extra spending if needed

  
Analysis, Economy
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German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz spoke on Sunday,

  • Said Germany has fiscal strength
  • is thus able to counter future economic crisis “with full force”
  • could spend up to 50bn EUR extra
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Germany’s economy is showing signs of slowing, Scholz floating the idea here of dially back government promises to target balanced budgets and instead borrow to fund investment.
  • if we have a debt level in Germany in relation to economic output that is below 60 percent, then this is the strength we have to counter a crisis with full force
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