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Nikkei 225 closes lower by 1.74% at 20,720.29

Asian equities tumble amid sour risk sentiment in markets

Nikkei 05-08

It’s a rough start to the week for risk assets and equities are getting pummeled all over the place. The fallout in US-China trade talks is the main reason here with China seemingly abandoning all hope after allowing the yuan to weaken past 7.00 per dollar.
The Hang Seng is down by 2.8% while the Shanghai Composite is down by 1.2% on the day. European equities are expected to open with heavy declines as well as markets are in a risk-off mood to begin the session.
As such, the yen and franc are still the usual suspects in terms of outperformers today.

Weekend HK press – China questions whether to continue trade talks with the US

An opinion piece from an account associated with State media Economic Daily newspaper expressed pessimism about whether trade talks with the United States should continue

This in response to US President Trump’s new tariffs on China
  • It said Trump’s latest threats as “destructive”
  • “The US has again stepped back from their promises for two reasons: to pressure China into fulfilling [America’s] expectations in the deal, and to attain someone’s political aims by meddling in the Sino-US trade talks”
  • via South China Morning Post
Negatives build for  China proxy trades (such as AUD)
An opinion piece from an account associated with State media  Economic Daily newspaper expressed pessimism about whether trade talks with the United States should continue 

Almost all of Trump’s advisors tried to talk him out of fresh China tariffs – report

Trump overruled advisors after ‘heated’ exchange

The Wall Street Journal reports that Trump unilaterally decided that tariffs were needed after a failed round of trade talks last week.
Trump was frustrated after a briefing with Mnuchin and Lighthizer where he said neither could relay promises from Beijing to buy more agricultural goods.

“Tariffs,” Mr. Trump said to his team, one of the people said. Those present included his national-security adviser John Bolton, top economic adviser Lawrence Kudlow, China adviser Peter Navarro and acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney.

All of them, save Mr. Navarro, a China hawk, adamantly objected to the tariffs, the people said. That spurred a debate lasting nearly two hours, one of the people said.

Trump told them his patience had worn thin.
In terms of what it means for the market this is a bad-news/good-news situation. The good news is that there is no grand, coordinated strategy here and that nearly all of the people advising Trump were against it. The bad news is that Trump is in love with tariffs and willing to overrule the people around him in order to get them.
Finally, you can’t rule out that this is a fake leak that’s part of some kind of strategy. Maybe that Mnuchin and Lighthizer go to the next round of talks and say “we need to bring back something or Trump is going to raise the tariffs to 25%.” But that seems to be a pretty questionable strategy to me.
This tweet from December remains the most-telling tweet of Trump’s Presidency.
Trump tweet
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