Archives of “July 26, 2019” day

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GBPUSD falls to new 2019 lows. Trades at lowest level in 27 months.

  
Analysis, Forex
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Trades below the July low a 1.23815..

The GBPUSD has falled to a new 2019 low on the break of the July 17th low at 1.23815.   The price has traded to 1.23755 so far.
Trades below the July low a 1.23815..
In trading to new 2019 lows, the pair is trading at the lowest level in 27 months (April 2017). The next target from the weekly chart above is at the April 2017 low at 1.2364. The March 2017 low was at 1.23599.  Moves below those levels open up the downside even more.
The price action this week has seen the price move below the 1.2441-748 area (see yellow area on the chart above). That area is defined by 2018 lows and weekly lows from June and early July. Last week, the price fell below that level only to rebound back above. This week, the pair will close below that swing area….(see red circled numbers).
Drilling to the 5 minute chart, the pair has accelerated and trended lower in the NY session. The session in the London and NY session has been able to stay below the 200/100 hour MA (there was a brief move above the 100 bar MA in the London session but stayed below the 200 bar MA).  It cracked below a lower trend line in the last couple hours that accelerated the fall.
The 38.2-50% of the last trend leg lower comes in at 1.2396-1.2400 now. The trend line cuts across in that area.  For the trend traders looking for more, that area is a risk/trend defining area. Stay below, keeps the trend intact.
GBPUSD on the 5 minute chart is trending lower

European share end the week mostly higher

  
Analysis, Global Indices

Spain Ibex and Italys FTSE MIB is lower

The major European stock indices are ending the Friday session mostly higher:
  • German Dax, +0.5%
  • France’s CAC, +0.7%
  • UKs FTSE, +0.9%
  • Spain’s Ibex -0.7%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, also fell by -0.3%
For the week, the major indices are higher:
  • German Dax, _1.3%
  • France’s CAC, +1.1%
  • UK FTSE, +0.55%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +0.5%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.8%

In the benchmark 10 year notes today, yields are also ending mixed with investors shunning the “riskier” southern countries (Spain, Italy and Portugal) and buying the more northern countries (German, France and UK)

Spain Ibex and Italys FTSE MIB is lower

USD moves higher after better US GDP

  
Analysis, Forex

USDJPY moves higher on the first move

The US GDP came in better than expected at 2.1% vs 1.8%. The price index was higher at 2.4% vs 2.0%. The Core PCE was lower than expected at 1.8% vs 2.0% estimate.
The dollare has moved higher in the initial reaction.
The USDJPY moved to the highest level since July 10, and to new week highs (taking out the high from yesterday at 108.75. The high reached 108.823 so far. The price moved up from 108.66.
The EURUSD moved from 1.11385 to a new low for the day at 1.11274. We trade at 1.11316. The pair remains in a narrow 23 pip range for the day
The GBPUSD took out the lows for the week at 1.24174.  The low price moved to 1.24127.  We currently trade at 1.2414 near the lows.

US Q2 advance GDP +2.1% vs +1.8% expected

  
Analysis, Economy

Highlights of the second quarter GDP report

  • Q1 GDP was 3.1% q/q annualized
  • Q4 was 2.2% (revised to 1.1%)
  • GDP y/y +2.3% vs +2.7% prior
  • 2018 GDP unrevised at +2.9%
Details:
  • Personal consumption 4.3% vs 4.0% exp (fastest since Q2 2017)
  • Prior personal consumption +0.9% (revised to +1.1%)
  • Consumer spending on durables +12.9% vs +0.3% prior
  • Business investment -0.6% vs +4.4% prior (first contraction since 2016)
  • Home investment -1.5% (6th consecutive contraction)
  • Exports -5.2%
  • Imports +0.1%

Erdogan: Interest rate cut is not enough, will continue until year-end

  
Analysis, Economy
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Turkish president Erdogan says they need to continue cutting rates gradually

  • Says that inflation will come down when interest rate is lower
  • Says that he has been defending that 24% interest rate is very high for Turkey
Who needs a central bank when you can get first-hand direction of where (and by how much) rates are going from the president himself? So much for central bank independence, they might as well just officially make him the new governor at this point.
Trump is probably green with envy though, wishing he could do the same with the Fed. 😉

Germany fires warning to Boris Johnson on Brexit talk

  
  Analysis

Norbert Röttgen, the head of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the German parliament, tweets out a message to Boris Johnson

“Dear @BorisJohnson: Neither boastful speeches nor bullying will succeed in making us give up #EU principles and unity. Will stay cool instead. Sadly, both in words and deeds – has appointed a cabinet of #Brexiteers – #Johnson fails to reach out to country and continent. #Brexit”

The first part of his tweet is something similarly reiterated by Juncker overnight and by French officials today i.e. they won’t renegotiate the withdrawal agreement and the need for a backstop. The second part doesn’t seem too pleasant and makes you wonder what sort of relationship will be formed with Boris Johnson in the coming weeks.

Coca Cola have a call on the US dollar – near the end of its strengthening cycle

  
  Analysis

Coca-Cola’s CFO on the USD – his outlook given via the company’s earning call.

  • “We think the dollar is at the – towards the end of a strong cycle, and hence, we think that we’re in for a benign environment over the next year, 1.5 years,”
Coke’s global sales means its exposed to around 70 currencies. Its Q2 earnings were impacted by the higher USD and heightened volatility across many EM currencies. .
Coca-Cola's CFO on the USD - his outlook given via the company's earning call. 
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