Archives of “July 8, 2019” day

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European major stock indices are ending the session mixed

  
Analysis, Global Indices

Small changes in the major European indices

The provisional closes for the major European stock indices are showing mixed results:
  • German DAX, -0.2%
  • France’s CAC, -0.1%
  • UK’s FTSE, +0.01%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -0.6%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -0.04%
  • Portugal PSI 20, -0.35%
IN the benchmark 10 year note sector, Spanish yields have surged 11.2 basis points today as investors liquidate long positions.
Small changes in the major European indices

Iran has enriched uranium beyond security limit set by nuclear deal

  
Analysis, Politics
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UN nuclear watchdog reports

The UN nuclear watchdog is out say that he ran has enriched uranium beyond purity limit set by nuclear deal.
Earlier, VP Pence in a speech did a little sabre rattling saying :
  • Iran should not confuse American restraint with the lack of American resolve
  • US does not seek a war with Iran and is willing to talk but America will not back down
  • US hopes for the best but US military is prepared to protect US interests, personnel in region

Tensions are getting a little higher as Iran presses US.

Nikkei 225 closes lower by 0.98% at 21,534.35

  
Analysis, Global Indices

Asian stocks pull back as Fed rate cut expectations recede

Nikkei 08-07

Equities in the region are posting heavy declines on the day and that owes largely to a fall in expectations that the Fed will aggressively cut rates in its upcoming July meeting. This of course comes after the more steady US jobs report seen on Friday.

Odds of a 50 bps rate cut has been slashed from ~27% before the report to now just be ~3% and that’s helping to keep equities on the back foot to start the day. The Hang Seng is down by 1.9% while the Shanghai Composite is down by 2.7% currently.
US equity futures are also lower by 0.4% amid weaker Treasury yields so the softer risk sentiment is what’s playing out as we begin the European morning. USD/JPY holds near session lows at 108.30 as a result.

Japan Core Machinery orders for May -7.8% m/m (expected -3.7%)

  
Analysis, Economy

Cabinet Office machinery orders data for May. The previous, April month data. showed an increase for three months running in the orders.

Despite wariness on the US-China trade war inducing capex caution. This data is seen as a leading indicator of capital expenditure six to nine months out.
May Core Machine Orders -7.8% m/m …  ugly number … biggest m/m drop since Set 2019
  • expected -3.7 %, prior 5.2% (biggest rise since Oct. 2018)
Machine Orders -3.7% y/y,
  • expected -3.6%, prior 2.5%
Bank lending data for June out at the same time

Japan BoP Current Account Balance for May: ¥ 1594.8B (vs. expected ¥ 1380.9B)

  
Analysis, Economy
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Data release from Japan’s Finance Ministry, preliminary balance of payments statistics for May

BoP Current Account Balance for May, preliminary ¥ 1594.8B for a nice beat
  • expected ¥ 1380.9B, prior ¥ 1707.4B
BoP Current Account Adjusted ¥ 1305.7B
  • expected ¥ 1231.0B, prior ¥ 1600.1B
Trade Balance BoP Basis ¥ -650.9B
  • expected ¥ -758.9B, prior ¥ -98.2B
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The background to this is shrinking exports due to economic growth slowing in China, trade wars impact. Japan has had a current account surplus for 58 straight months.

Weekend HK press: US-China trade war, Trump and Xi are no closer to a deal

  
  Analysis
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An opinion piece in the South China Morning Post – says despite the two being ‘friends’ there is no deal on the horizon.

In a nutshell:
  • Neither leader has agreed to anything more than they had previously
  • The lack of a deadline to negotiate the final ’10 per cent’ of sticking points betrays a lack of confidence that doing so is even possible
Is anyone surprised?
We’ve been fed so much baloney on the ‘deal’, and anyone who has been hopeful has been fooled time and time again. Carry on.
Link here if you want further elaboration
An opinion piece in the South China Morning Post - says despite the two being 'friends' there is no deal on the horizon. 

US President Trump says Iran had better be careful (re nuclear enrichment)

  
Analysis, Politics

Comments from the US President, speaking to media

  • Says Iran better be careful
(this in response to news Iran is increasing its levels of nuclear material enrichment)
  • Also says he has not seen the remarks from UK Ambassador to the US
  • That the ambassador has not served the UK well
(this in response to the  Sir Kim Darroch, UK ambassador to Washington, saying Trump’s  administration is “inept” and “incompetent”)
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Welcome to the new week …. nothing has changed 😀
Comments from the US President, speaking to media
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