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Trump meets Kim Jong Un at Korea’s DMZ

  
Analysis, Politics
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Donald Trump became the first sitting U.S. president to enter North Korea when he stepped over the border to greet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in the Demilitarized Zone between the two Koreas.

The two leaders met for the third time at the peace village of Panmunjom, the site of the demarcation line drawn as the Korean War ended in 1953. The two leaders first met in Singapore in June last year.

“I never expected to meet you at this place,” Kim told Trump, moments after the U.S. president stepped over the border. The pair then went over to the South side, where they briefly chatted and spoke to the media before greeting South Korean President Moon Jae-in.

“Stepping over that line was a great honor,” Trump said. “A lot of really positive things are happening,” stressing that he liked Kim from the first time they met.

“I’m sure our special relations will lead to good results,” Kim said. “I’m sure our good relations have a mysterious power that can overcome difficulties.”

Trump and Kim then entered closed door talks without Moon in the House of Freedom on the South side of the DMZ. (more…)

Crucial Update :US Dollar Index ,Euro ,Yen ,GBP ,INR ,CAD ,AUD ,PESO -Anirudh Sethi

  
Analysis, Forex, Global Indices
The US dollar was little changed in the first half of June but fell out of favor in the second half as the market became convinced the Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates in late July and follow it up with two more cuts in H2.  Given then the world’s largest economy continues to expand above trend, with unemployment at a historic low, and financial conditions supportive, it is difficult to envision the market discounting a more aggressive Fed than it has.  According to a recent Wall Street Journal survey, most economists expect two rather than the three rates that are discounted in the fed funds futures and OIS market.
If peak dovishness has passed, with the dollar regain better footing?  What is the dollar’s technical condition as the second half begins?  We seek to shed light on these issues below.
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Trump, China & the Fed

  
  Analysis
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I think it’s entirely possible we leave Osaka with a mild escalation -something like expanded 10% tariffs – enough to scare both China & the Fed into more stimulus & a 50bps cut. Then walk it back in 2020 with a juiced economy. Same playbook as Iran/SA
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