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China says cooperation is the only right option in trade talks

Comments by China’s commerce ministry

  • Urges US to immediately cancel sanctions on Chinese firms including Huawei
  • Hopes that US will drop its wrongdoings
  • Says that it is not feasible for firms to shift their supply chain out of China
  • Calls for favourable environment ahead of Trump-Xi meeting
Based on their remarks here, it’s not really suggestive that there’s a so-called trade truce already agreed between the two countries ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting. Regardless, the outcome of talks over the weekend will still be the key driver for markets currently.

Eurostoxx futures +0.3% in early European trading

The more positive vibes carry over to Europe in early trades

  • German DAX futures +0.4%
  • French CAC 40 futures +0.3%
  • UK FTSE futures +0.2%
This mainly mirrors sentiment seen in US equity futures, which are up by about 0.3% as we begin the session. Markets are feeling a bit more upbeat on US-China trade talks but the catch here is that we’ll have to wait until the weekend to find out how things go between Trump and Xi in Osaka.
As such, I reckon markets will still be exude some hints of caution as we look to wrap up the week over the next two days so don’t hold your breath if you’re counting on a risk-on rally before the weekend – barring any major headlines to come before then that is.

Nikkei 225 closes higher by 1.19% at 21,338.17

Tokyo’s main index closes at the high amid trade optimism ahead of G20

Nikkei 27-06

Markets are feeling a bit more upbeat on the Trump-Xi meeting and that’s feeding into gains among equities in Asia to start the day. I would expect similar sentiment among European stocks as well given that US futures are up by about 0.3% currently.
There was an earlier report in the day suggesting that the US and China have reached a tentative trade truce and that’s fueling the optimism ahead of talks this weekend.
As such, USD/JPY is holding higher around 108.05 currently – large expiries seen at 108.00 though – with the franc also weaker as USD/CHF holds above the 0.9800 level.

A Key Question to Ask Yourself NOW

After a big move like yesterday, emotions naturally are stronger. On days like today – the day after, the propensity  to trade in response to our P&L is much greater than usual.

On one level, the psychological backdrop of days like this is that it is all too easy to slip into trading our P&L, and not trade the market. I say one level, because there are deeper levels, but that’s beyond the scope of my blog…those deeper levels are more individual to each trader.

But a good question to ask yourself: no matter what your deeper psychological issues:

How much of what I’m doing or contemplating of doing right now is a response to my P&L?

I know in my own trading, and I see this in my clients as well, the more honest we are with that self-directed question, usually the better we trade. We should trade the market, not our P&L.

If you catch yourself trading your P&L more than the market, consider my Advanced Course, designed to address problems like this that all traders face. It is ‘heavy duty’ trading psychology with a lot of actionable steps to improve your performance. It’s for  traders who are serious about improving. And if you haven’t already, sign up for my free email newsletter that gives you professional trading psychology tips.

Chasing a Trade and The Power of Regret

Everyone knows that chasing price is usually not beneficial, we either end up catching the move too late, or we get poor trade location, which makes it more difficult to manage the trade.

However, there are other forms of chasing that are just as common, maybe more common, and just as counter-productive.   As a trading psychologist I see these all the time.

Traders who are not profitable are often too quick to chase after new set-ups and indicators, or a different chat room, if that’s your thing.  Obviously, we need to have a trading edge, whether it is from the statistical perspective of a positive expectancy, or simply the confidence in a particular discretionary strategy such as tape reading, following order flow, market profile, etc.

Chasing a trade is the fear of missing out. The fear of missing out is associated with various emotions, including regret. In my work with traders and in my own trading, I’ve seen the incredible power of regret. There’s a lot of talk about fear and greed in trading, but the power of regret is often overlooked. Some of my own worst trades, and those of my clients, often have a ‘regret from missing a prior opportunity’ component. When I finally finish my book on the psychology of financial risk taking, I will include much about this overlooked but very powerful emotion.

Somewhat related to chasing a trade, is impulse trading.  They both have in common the underlying feeling of the fear of missing out.  It’s tempting for me to talk about impulse trading here, but it really deserves its own piece.

HK press report the US and China have reached a tentative truce in the trade war

South China Morning Post  says even before the G20 has started and Before Trump and Xi have met a truce has been pencilled in

  • Fresh tariffs expected to be delayed
  • with two sides preparing separate statements
Source says Donald Trump’s decision to delay additional tariffs was Xi Jinping’s price for holding this week’s meeting with him
  • Details of the agreement are being laid out
South China Morning Post  says even before the G20 has started and Before Trump and Xi have met a truce has been pencilled in
AUD is ticking a little higher n this development, or it has I should say. Up about 10 points give or take on the session.

BoA / ML expect a truce but no deal at the Xi – Trump G20 meeting

G20 summit begins in Japan on June 28, and continues June 29.

Presidents Xi and Trump are expected to hold their their meeting on the 29th.
Bank of America / Merrill Lynch says the best we can hope for is truce, not a deal.
  • a likely ceasefire, delays in tariffs agreed to on both sides
  • given the scope of disagreement between the two side a major deal is unlikely
BoA says at a truce is at least a positive but will soon evolve into worry unless sides move towards a deal.
G20 summit begins in Japan on June 28, and continues June 29. 
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