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Morgan Stanley says Fed could cut to near-zero in a year

Morgan Stanley on the Fed

  • US-China trade tensions may lead to Fed to lower US rates near zero by Spring 2020
  • US-China tensions may tip US economy into recession in 2020, ‘depending on policy support’
  • US-China trade relations may knock S&P 500 down towards 2400, 10-year yields to 1.75% this year
  • Dollar initially higher against risk-sensitive currencies on trade war, but lower later
These comments are all conditional but point to an ugly outcome if it all goes badly. The question I always ask is: what’s a trade war? Are we in one now, or do we need 25% tariffs on everything and retaliation? There’s also plenty of gray area in between.

Sotheby’s to be acquired in $3.7bn deal

Patrick Drahi, the billionaire founder of telecoms group Altice, has agreed to buy famed auction house Sotheby’s in a $3.7bn deal including debt that will return the company to private ownership after 31 years.

The transaction will see Mr Drahi’s BidFair holding company pay $57 per share to acquire all of Sotheby’s common stock, a 61 per cent premium to its most recent closing price.

The takeover by the Franco-Israeli entrepreneur will mean the world’s two largest auction houses are both in the private hands of French billionaires. Two decades ago Sotheby’s arch rival Christie’s was bought by Artemis, the holding company of France’s Pinault family, for $1.2bn.

Sotheby’s and Christie’s have had a spree of record-breaking art auctions over the past two years, as the art market recovered from a lull that coincided with a broad downturn in financial markets. The resurgence of the art market was cemented with the $450m sale of a contested Leonardo da Vinci painting in 2017. After that, records have been set with multimillion-dollar sales of works by David Hockney, Claude Monet and Jeff Koons.

While Christie’s was out of public glare, Sotheby’s was thrown into turmoil multiple times by activist interventions. The group attracted a blistering public attack from hedge fund managers Dan Loeb and Mick McGuire, with the latter accusing it of “wilful neglect” in 2015. (more…)

Saudi oil minister says that will maintain supply constraints to balance oil market

Comments by Saudi oil minister, Khalid Al-Falih

OPEC
  • Not seeing any slowdown of physical demand for oil
  • Oil demand is holding up despite trade disputes
The big question now is can they agree to do more in the upcoming OPEC+ meeting? As it stands, the current output cuts deal isn’t cutting it as the oversupply issue continues to linger. The worst part is that markets have basically priced in the status quo so if they announce no changes to the existing deal, don’t expect the build up of supply/inventories in the oil market to magically disappear in 2H 2019.
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