Archives of “June 13, 2019” day

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India rubber price surges 17 per cent in last 45 days ,RSS-4 sheet has touched Rs 150 per kilo for the first time in the past two years

  
  Analysis

The price of premium grade RSS-4 sheet has touched Rs 150 per kilo for the first time in the past two years, though the supply situation may not allow a matching market realisation.

It seems rubber growers have got their moment in the sun, as the Indian price of natural rubber (NR) jumped 17% in 45 days. The price of premium grade RSS-4 sheet has touched Rs 150 per kilo for the first time in the past two years, though the supply situation may not allow a matching market realisation.

“The last time we saw the `150 per kilo price for RSS-4 in Kottayam market was March 21, 2017. It was just `128 per kilo in last week of April. Price has been shooting up faster than our best expectations,” Siby Monipally, secretary, Indian Rubber Growers Association (IRGA), told FE.

European shares end the session with small(ish) changes

  
Analysis, Global Indices

Major indices little changed

The European shares are ending the session with small(ish) changes today
  • German DAX, +0.45%
  • France’s CAC, unchanged
  • UK’s FTSE, unchanged
  • Spain’s Ibex, unchanged
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.76%
The benchmark 10 year yields in Europe are mostly lower with the riskier countries outpacing.  Below are the high/low ranges and the current levels for the major countries 10 year yields.
Benchmark European yields are mostly lower

In other markets as London/European traders to exit:

  • spot gold is trading up $6.36 or 0.48% at $1340. That is near the highs for the day. The contract has been able to stay above it’s 100 and 200 hour moving averages (see post here).
  • WTI crude oil futures are up $1.50 or 2.97% at $52.63. The price got a boost from the attack on oil tankers in Gulf of Oman.
In the US stock market, major indices are trading higher:
  • S&P index is up 7.9 points or 0.27% at 2887.69
  • NASDAQ indexes up 34.87 points or 0.44% at 7827.70
  • Dow is up 51.2 0.20% at 26058
US yields have move lower today and are down -1.1 to -2.3 bps:
US yields a lower today

House speaker Pelosi: Thinks Pres. Trump is involved in an criminal cover-up

  
  Analysis

House speaker give weekly press conference

The House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is having her weekly press conference:
  • Believes president Trump involved in criminal cover-up
  • Trump once again gave proof doesn’t know right from wrong
  • Trump is cavalier on ethics by inviting foreign intel
  • may need clarity in law on duty to report on foreign intel
  • Debt ceiling lift can’t happen before budget passes
  • bipartisan humanitarian border deal possible this month

40% of economists in WSJ survey see Fed cut in July

  
  Analysis

The latest survey from the Wall Street Journal

A monthly survey from the WSJ shows a shift towards rate cut expectations among economists. That fits in nicely with the Fed funds futures market pricing in a 81% chance of a cut in July and two-and-a-half cuts this year.
Economists almost always lag the market because of stubbornness and a desire to want clearer signals but the direction of change remains important.
Currently 40% of economists in the survey see a July cut while another 30% see a cut in September.

Lagarde: Eurozone growth has slowed, inflation is low. This requires policy coordination

  
  Analysis

Comments from the IMF leader

  • Risks to eurozone include escalation of trade tensions
  • Next EU Commission should come up with incentives for countries to pursue structural reform
  • There is a risk the eurozone could slip into a period of low growth and low inflation (isn’t that what we’re in now?)
  • Eurozone fiscal rules should be simplified, anchored to debt
We’ve heard this before. At some point there is going to be genuine reform in the eurozone but I dn’t think it’s coming soon.

Eurozone April industrial production -0.5% vs -0.5% m/m expected

  
Analysis, Economy

Latest data released by Eurostat – 13 June 2019

  • Prior -0.3%; revised to -0.4%
  • Industrial production WDA -0.4% vs -0.6% y/y expected
  • Prior -0.6%; revised to -0.7%
Yet another drop on the month for industrial activity but that falls in-line with expectations despite a notable drop in German factory activity in April. A minor data point but this feeds into overall sentiment of softer conditions in the euro area economy seen in Q2 so far.

Iran on oil tanker attacks: Suspicious doesn’t begin to describe what likely transpired this morning

  
Analysis, Crude

Iran’s foreign minister, Javad Zarif, tweets

Reported attacks on Japan-related tankers occurred while PM @AbeShinzo was meeting with Ayatollah @khamenei_ir for extensive and friendly talks.

Suspicious doesn’t begin to describe what likely transpired this morning.

Iran’s proposed Regional Dialogue Forum is imperative.

Despite the statement above, I reckon the US will no doubt start pointing the finger back to Iran in no time again much like before. Oil prices are still elevated on the day following the attacks earlier with Brent up by 3.5% to $62.05 currently.

Oil tanker which caught fire in the Gulf of Oman reportedly said to be struck by a torpedo

  
Analysis, Crude

According to a report by TradeWinds, citing industry sources

It is also being reported that two tankers were caught in the crossfire, not just one, and the crew were forced to evacuate them because of the incident. The headline will only serve to prove that Middle East tensions are still very much present and will continue to act as a tailwind for oil prices as we have seen earlier in the year.

Oil is still holding to the majority of its gains so far with both Brent and WTI up by more than 2.5% on the day. The latter is currently trading at $52.50.

Eurostoxx futures -0.3% in early European trading

  
  Analysis

Slightly softer tones observed in early trades

  • German DAX futures -0.2%
  • French CAC 40 futures -0.2%
  • UK FTSE futures -0.1%
This mainly mirrors the mood seen in US equity futures, which are down by about 0.1% to 0.2% as we begin the session. The overall risk mood is a bit softer as market participants continue to tread with caution.
I reckon the state of flux we’re seeing here will keep up until tomorrow – barring any fresh trade headlines that is – where US retail sales data will offer more clues for traders on how to go about with market direction.
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