Archives of “June 12, 2019” day

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Crude oil hangs nearer low levels for the day

  
Analysis, Crude

Build in inventory may not have been as much as the private data, but rally higher is limited

The price of crude oill remains closer to the lows after the inventory data showed a build of 2206K (last week 6771K build and est of -1000K). The build was less than the private data at the end of trading yesterday (+4852K) but the rally off the low has been limited.
Build in inventory may not have been as much as the private data, but rally higher is limited
The current price is at $51.92. That is down -$1.35 of -2.59%. The low for the day reached $51.46. The high extended to $53.05, but that was at the start of the trading day.  At the start of the day, the price was breaking below the 100 hour MA (blue line) currently at $53.20.  For nearly 3 days, the contract traded between the 100 and 200 hour MAs.  Falling below was more bearish.
On more weakness, the swing lows from June 6th and 5th will be targeted at $51.17 and $50.60 respectively.

A down day for major European stock indices today

  
Analysis, Global Indices

Yields are mixed.

The major European stock indices renting the day down.
The closing levels are showing:
  • German DAX, -0.36%
  • France’s CAC, -0.62%
  • UK’s FTSE, -0.40%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -0.45%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -0.69%
In the benchmark 10 year note sector your changes are mixed. German France and Spain yields are down marginally, while UK Italy and Portugal yields are higher.
Yields are mixed.

Ed Seykota: Greatest Quotes

  
Analysis, Education
  • “If I am bullish, I neither buy on a reaction, nor wait for strength; I am already in. I turn bullish at the instant my buy stop is hit, and stay bullish until my sell stop is hit. Being bullish and not being long is illogical.”
  • “Fundamentalists figure things out and anticipate change. Trend followers join the trend of the moment. Fundamentalists try to solve their feelings. Trend followers join their feelings and observe them evolve and dis-solve.”
  • “The feelings we accept and enjoy rarely interfere with trading.”
  • “Systems don’t need to be changed. The trick is for a trader to develop a system with which he is compatible”
  • “It can be very expensive to try to convince the markets you are right.”
  • “There are old traders and there are bold traders, but there are very few old, bold traders.”
  • “I would add that I consider myself and how I do things as a kind of system which, by definition, I always follow.”
  • “Systems trading is ultimately discretionary. The manager still has to decide how much risk to accept, which markets to play, and how aggressively to increase and decrease the trading base as a function of equity change.”
  • “Trying to trade during a losing streak is emotionally devastating. Trying to play “catch up” is lethal.”
  • “The elements of good trading are: 1, cutting losses. 2, cutting losses. And 3, cutting losses. If you can follow these three rules, you may have a chance.”
  • “Losing a position is aggravating, whereas losing your nerve is devastating.”
  • “The markets are the same now as they were five to ten years ago because they keep changing – just like they did then.”
  • “Luck plays an enormous role in trading success. Some people were lucky enough to be born smart, while others were even smarter and got born lucky.”
  • “Having a quote machine is like having a slot machine at your desk – you end up feeding it all day long. I get my price data after the close each day.”
  • “A losing trader can do little to transform himself into a winning trader. A losing trader is not going to want to transform himself. That’s the kind of thing winning traders do.”
  • “If you can’t take a small loss, sooner or later you will take the mother of all losses.”
  • “It is a happy circumstance that when nature gives us true burning desires, she also gives us the means to satisfy them. Those who want to win and lack skill can get someone with skill to help them.”
  • “Risk no more that you can afford to lose, and also risk enough so that a win is meaningful.”
  • “Dramatic and emotional trading experiences tend to be negative. Pride is a great banana peel, as are hope, fear, and greed. My biggest slip-ups occurred shortly after I got emotionally involved with positions.”
  • “Be sensitive to subtle differences between ‘intuition’ and ‘into wishing’.”
  • “The trading rules I live by are: 1. Cut losses. 2. Ride winners. 3. Keep bets small. 4. Follow the rules without question. 5. Know when to break the rules.”
  • “I usually ignore advice from other traders, especially the ones who believe they are on to a “sure thing”. The old timers, who talk about “maybe there is a chance of so and so,” are often right and early.”
  • “I set protective stops at the same time I enter a trade. I normally move these stops in to lock in a profit as the trend continues. Sometimes, I take profits when a market gets wild. This usually doesn’t get me out any better than waiting for my stops to close in, but it does cut down on the volatility of the portfolio, which helps calm my nerves. Losing a position is aggravating, whereas losing your nerve is devastating.”
  • “I intend to risk below 5 percent on a trade, allowing for poor executions.”
  • “I don’t judge success, I celebrate it. I think success has to do with finding and following one’s calling regardless of financial gain.” (On losing streaks and over-trading) “Acting out this drama could be exciting. However, it also seems terribly expensive. One alternative is to keep bets small and then to systematically keep reducing risk during equity drawdowns. That way you have a gentle financial and emotional touchdown.”
  • “In order of importance to me are: 1) the long term trend, 2) the current chart pattern, and 3) picking a good spot to buy or sell.”
  • “Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
  • “Fundamentals that you read about are typically useless as the market has already discounted the price, and I call them “funny-mentals”. However, if you catch on early, before others believe, you might have valuable “surprise-a-mentals”.”
  • “If you can’t measure it, you probably can’t manage it… Things you measure tend to improve.”
  • “The key to long-term survival and prosperity has a lot to do with the money management techniques incorporated into the technical system.”
  • “If you want to know everything about the market, go to the beach. Push and pull your hands with the waves. Some are bigger waves, some are smaller. But if you try to push the wave out when it’s coming in, it’ll never happen. The market is always right”
  • “To avoid whipsaw losses, stop trading”
  • “Pyramiding instructions appear on dollar bills. Add smaller and smaller amounts on the way up. Keep your eye open at the top.”
  • “Markets are fundamentally volatile. No way around it. Your problem is not in the math. There is no math to get you out of having to experience uncertainty.”
  • “Our work is not so much to treat or to cure feelings, as to accept and celebrate them. This is a critical difference.”
  • “Before I enter a trade, I set stops at a point at which the chart sours.”
  • “Trading requires skill at reading the markets and at managing your own anxieties.”
  • “The positive intention of fear is risk control.”
  • “Speculate with less than 10% of your liquid net worth. Risk less than 1% of your speculative account on a trade. This tends to keep the fluctuations in the trading account small, relative to net worth. This is essential as large fluctuations can engage {emotions} and lead to feeling-justifying drama.”

Wilbur Ross: Trump and Xi may decide to reopen talks

  
  Analysis

US commerce secretary, Wilbur Ross, comments

  • G20 isn’t the forum for Trump and Xi to sign a final trade deal
  • Trump wants structural reforms in trade deal with China
  • Fed should reconsider last rate hike, which was at best premature
All I’m getting from the headline here is that talks are non-existent now and that even a Trump and Xi meetup later this month may not necessarily resolve that. If this headlineovernight is anything to go by, there isn’t much reason to be hopeful or optimistic for now.

Eurostoxx futures -0.6% in early European trading

  
Analysis, Global Indices

Slightly softer tones in early trades

  • German DAX futures -0.6%
  • French CAC 40 futures -0.4%
  • UK FTSE futures -0.4%
Part of the story for the declines here is catch up play to the performance of US equities overnight. European equities ended the session higher yesterday before US stocks surrendered their gains to end around flat levels for the day.
The other part of the softer start here is slight weakness in US equity futures and risk sentiment as we begin the session. E-minis are down by about 0.2% as Treasury yields are also weighed lower so that is helping to keep the yen and franc bid in the early European morning.

Nikkei 225 closes lower by 0.35% at 21,129.72

  
Analysis, Global Indices

Tokyo’s main index fails to breach the 100-day moving average

Nikkei 12-06

Japanese stocks are closing at their lows amid fresh protests in Hong Kong regarding the China extradition bill, which is weighing on sentiment in the region today. The Hang Seng index is languishing at its lows, down by 1.8% currently.

That and global trade tensions is starting to put a bit of weight on risk assets in the past hour with Treasury yields inching lower alongside US equity futures, which are down by nearly 0.2% as we begin the session.
This is helping to keep the yen a little bid with USD/JPY slipping to 108.35 now. As mentioned earlier, with little on the economic calendar, expect changes in the risk mood to be the notable market driver in the European morning.

China inflation data for May: CPI 2.7% y/y (expected 2.7% ) and PPI 0.6% y/y (expected 0.6%

  
Analysis, Economy

Chinese May month 2019 inflation

CPI 2.7% y/y , in line with the central esitiamte and its highest since Feb of 2018.
  • expected 2.7% y/y, prior 2.5%
  • 0.0% change m/m
PPI 0.6% y/y, in line
  • expected 0.6% y/y, prior 0.9%
  • +0.2% m/m
  Food CPI +7.7% y/y – I mentioned earlier 9a reminder ewlly) how higher pork prices are impacting on this component.
Non food is +1.6% y/y, much more subdued at the core measure.
more to come
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