Why we build wealth and live below our means:
Archives of “June 1, 2019” day
rssNegative Bond Yields through…
20 yrs: Switzerland 10 yrs: Germany, Japan, Denmark, Netherlands 8 yrs: Austria, France, Finland 7 yrs: Sweden, Belgium 6 yrs: Ireland, Slovakia 5 yrs: Spain, Portugal, Slovenia 3 yrs: Malta, Bulgaria 6 mo: Italy
Smart Money Index
TECH INVESTMENT CYCLE
It’s an insiders game. From founders to accredited angel investors… Then to the VCs, the institutional money… …and finally after the first 1000x has already happened, the public get to invest.
BITCOIN INVESTMENT CYCLE
The founders were the cypherpunks. The angel money was from drugs and libertarians. Then came the general public. Institutional money comes last. The rules of investment (or lack thereof) favoured the public. Welcome to Bitcoin. 1000x for the public
Whether or not you agree with the outcome, it’s interesting to examine the heuristics that underlie such complicated decisions:
Week ahead: ECB, US jobs, Trump’s UK visit
Investors will continue to keep an eye on trade developments and their impact on markets, but Donald Trump’s visit to the UK, monetary policy from a number of central banks and Theresa May’s resignation are other notable events on the calendar.
Here’s what to watch:
Trump’s UK visit
President Trump will be hosted by Queen Elizabeth II on a state visit. He is also expected to meet outgoing prime minister Theresa May. The visit may also provide an opportunity for Mr Trump to threaten to limit intelligence-sharing with Britain if the UK government lets Chinese telecoms group Huawei build part of the 5G network.
Widespread protests are expected in the UK. The Stop Trump Coalition — formed ahead of Mr Trump’s last UK visit — is planning a “noise protest” involving pots and pans outside Buckingham Place during the banquet.
US employment
The labour market remains one of the bright spots for the US, which was seen a mixed batch of data in recent weeks. Economists expect the world’s biggest economy to have added 183,000 jobs in May and for the unemployment to remain steady at a historically low level of 3.6 per cent.
Other US economic data this week include: factory orders on Monday; private sector payrolls, services sector activity and the Federal Reserve’s so-called “Beige Book” on Tuesday and; trade balance on Thursday.
European Central Bank (more…)
The day arrived: 5yr BTP now yield 25 bps MORE than 5yr Greece.
CFTC commitments of traders: Minor wiggles in speculative positions this week
Weekly Forex futures net noncommercial positioning data for the week ending May 28, 2019
- EUR short 100K vs 101K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
- GBP short 32K vs 26K short last week. Shorts increased by 6K
- JPY short 55K vs 55K short last week. Unchanged
- CHF short 35k vs 37k short last week. Shorts trimmed by 2K
- AUD short 66k vs 66k short last week. Unchanged
- NZD short 16K vs 11K short last week. Shorts increased by 5K
- CAD short 39K vs 42K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 3K
- Prior report
Minor wiggles in positions this week although the GBP shorts increased by an additional 6K after increasing 23K last week. AUD shorts remain healthy on expectations of cut(s) in rates. The largest position remains the EUR as speculators don’t like the prospects for the common currency.
Gold hits 6-week high on increasing belief in central bank cuts
Gold up $17 today
In a world of uncertainty, gold shines ever-brighter.
That’s certainly the case today with Trump announcing new tariffs and risk assets getting beaten up. Gold is up $17 to $1306.
The rally breaks the May high of $1303 and means the precious metal will close the month at the highs.
Gold also rallied nicely in the Nov-Dec period on a similar round of fears about trade. The upside here is considerable but it will need to coincide with a deteriorating in economic data.
The Fed funds market is pricing in a 73% chance of two Fed rate cuts this year.