Archives of “March 16, 2019” day

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3 Highlights in the Week Ahead

  
  Analysis
Three events next week will shape the investment climate.  The Federal Reserve meets and will update its forecasts and guidance.  The British House of Commons may vote for a third time on the Withdrawal Bill before Prime Minister May heads of the EU Summit to ask for an extension of the UK leaving the EU.   The eurozone sees the flash March PMI, with great hope that the green shoots of spring will be evident.
FOMC

 

There is little chance of a change in policy at the FOMC meeting.  The meeting is important because the Fed’s verbal communication has changed dramatically since the December projections.  The Fed’s thinking about its balance sheet has also evolved. Often officials make small incremental changes to their forecast, but it could be a step function this time.

 

That said, the Fed’s view of the economy has probably not changed materially. The economy hit a soft patch at the end of last year and early this year as various crosscurrents hit, but the underlying fundamentals remain frim.  Financial conditions tightened dramatically, but have eased nearly as quickly. The S&P 500 is up over 12% since the start of the year.  The Federal Reserves’ real broad trade-weighted dollar index fell in both January and February, to snap an 11-month rally.  US interest rates remain below Q4 18 levels.  The 10-year note yield was near 3.25% in early November and finished last week below 2.60% for the first time since early January.  The two-year yield closed the week a little above 2.40%.  It peaked shy of 3.0% four months ago.
In December, the median forecast for growth this year was shaved to 2.3% from 2.5%. The median dot for 2020 and 2021 was unrevised at 2.0% and 1.8% respectively.  Like many private sector economists, officials will likely recognize that the economic weakness in Q1 may be more pronounced than anticipated and could trim their forecasts again.

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Reid Hoffman: 16 Lessons Learned

  
Analysis, Education

16 Lessons Learned (Among Many!)

-People are complicated and flawed. Root for their better angels.

-The best way to get a busy person’s attention: Help them.

-Keep it simple and move fast when conceiving strategies and making decisions.

-Every weakness has a corresponding strength.

-The values that actually shape a culture have both upside and downside.

-Understand someone’s “alpha” tendencies and how that drives them.

-Self-deception watch: even those who say they don’t need or want flattery, sometimes still need it.

-Be clear on your specific level of engagement on a project.

-Sketch three possible outcomes for a project: the likely upside, likely ‘regular’, and likely downside scenarios.

-A key to making good partnerships great: Identify and emphasize any misaligned incentives.

-Reason is the steering wheel. Emotion is the gas pedal.

-Trade up on trust even if it means you trade down on competency.

-Tell the truth. Don’t reflexively kiss ass to powerful people.

-Respect the shadow power.

-Make people genuine partners and they’ll work harder.

-Final: The people around you change you in myriad unconscious ways

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Analysis, seminars

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Week ahead :What’s on the US economic calendar

  
  Analysis

A look at what’s coming up

Monday:
  • NAHB housing market index
Tuesday:
  • Factory orders
Wednesday:
  • FOMC decision
Thursday:
  • Philly Fed
  • Initial jobless claims
Friday:
  • Markit manufacturing PMI
  • Wholesale inventories
  • Existing home sales

It’s a quiet week with the Fed on blackout ahead of the decision. However the UK should be busy enough for everyone as Theresa May holds another meaningful vote on Wednesday.

The strongest and weakest currencies this week are…..???

  
Analysis, Forex

The GBP runs away with the strongest. The JPY and USD are the weakest

As the week comes to a close, it’s time to rank the strongest and weakest currencies.
The run away strongest was the GBP. That currency benefitted from the squeeze into all the votes, the blocking of the no-deal and I guess the hoped for extension of Article 50. What is still up in the air is if PM May can get the votes for her deal or if she can present another deal that the EU27 will agree to.  There may be the question of whether the EU27 will agree to an extension. Government officials met with the DUP leaders today and made “progress” with them (for votes).  Talks will continue over the weekend and early next week).
The weakest currency was the JPY and the USD. The JPY was hurt of flights out the safety of the JPY as global stocks moved nicely higher. The US saw most of the declines vs the GBP and EUR (a Brexit deal would help both presumingly).

European stocks end the week with solid gains

  
Analysis, Global Indices

All major indices are higher

I must be out of synch because of the time change this week, but not to be forgotten, the European shares have ended the week with solid gains.
  • German Dax, +0.85%
  • France’s CAC rose 1.04%
  • UK FTSE, +0.6%
  • Spain’s Ibex +1.44%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.8%
  • Portugals PSI20 bucked the trend by falling -0.60%
For the week:
  • German Dax, +1.99%
  • France’s CAC +3.33%
  • UK FTSE +1.74%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +2.33%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB +2.74%
  • Portugal’s PSI 20 rose 1.14%

US stocks, dollar post biggest weekly moves since late 2018

  
Analysis, US Market

US stocks cemented their biggest weekly gain in more than three months and Treasuries rallied following a patch of soft economic data, all against a backdrop of hopes of progress in US-China trade negotiations.

Wall Street’s S&P 500 resumed its rally, up 0.5 per cent, after a slip on Thursday interrupted a three-day winning streak. The benchmark was up 2.9 per cent this week, its biggest weekly advance since late November.

The S&P has registered a weekly decline just twice this year, as trade optimism and the Federal Reserve’s pledge to be patient on rate rises have lifted sentiment on Wall Street.

“Next week’s FOMC meeting and a potentially pending resolution to trade frictions between the U.S. and China are likely the macro drivers to watch going forward,” Anthony Saglimbene, global market strategist at Ameriprise, wrote to clients.

US Treasuries also rallied on Friday, dragging yields lower, following a batch of soft economic data, including industrial production that missed expectations and a gauge of manufacturing activity in New York falling to a 22-month low. Yields on the 2- and 10-year Treasury hit their lowest since early January.

Partly hobbled by a resurgent British pound, the US dollar shed about ¾ of 1 per cent this week for its biggest weekly drop since the first week of December.

Chinese state media on Friday reported “substantive progress” on trade talks and Beijing passed a new foreign investment law designed to smooth the way to a new trade deal with the US.

The CSI 300 index tracking Shanghai and Shenzhen stocks closed up 1.3 per cent.

There were solid moves in Europe. Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax 30 gained 0.9 per cent, gathering pace as the session developed and reaching its highest level since October. London’s FTSE 100 was up 0.6 per cent.

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