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Dennis Gartman’s Trading Rules List

  
  Education
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Some food for thought for the weekend. Trading rules from great traders are always worth reading. If you spend some time to understand the concept behind each trading rule this will improve your trading skills and take you to the next level. Also check this video where Dennis Gartman talks about the concept of keeping it simple.

1. Never, under any circumstance add to a losing position…. ever! Nothing more need be said; to do otherwise will eventually and absolutely lead to ruin!

2. Trade like a mercenary guerrilla. We must fight on the winning side and be willing to change sides readily when one side has gained the upper hand.

3. Capital comes in two varieties: Mental and that which is in your pocket or account. Of the two types of capital, the mental is the more important and expensive of the two. Holding to losing positions costs measurable sums of actual capital, but it costs immeasurable sums of mental capital.

4. The objective is not to buy low and sell high, but to buy high and to sell higher. We can never know what price is “low.” Nor can we know what price is “high.” Always remember that sugar once fell from $1.25/lb to 2 cent/lb and seemed “cheap” many times along the way.

5. In bull markets we can only be long or neutral, and in bear markets we can only be short or neutral. That may seem self-evident; it is not, and it is a lesson learned too late by far too many.

6. “Markets can remain illogical longer than you or I can remain solvent,” according to our good friend, Dr. A. Gary Shilling. Illogic often reigns and markets are enormously inefficient despite what the academics believe.

7. Sell markets that show the greatest weakness, and buy those that show the greatest strength. Metaphorically, when bearish, throw your rocks into the wettest paper sack, for they break most readily. In bull markets, we need to ride upon the strongest winds… they shall carry us higher than shall lesser ones.

8. Try to trade the first day of a gap, for gaps usually indicate violent new action. We have come to respect “gaps” in our nearly thirty years of watching markets; when they happen (especially in stocks) they are usually very important.

9. Trading runs in cycles: some good; most bad. Trade large and aggressively when trading well; trade small and modestly when trading poorly. In “good times,” even errors are profitable; in “bad times” even the most well researched trades go awry. This is the nature of trading; accept it.

10. To trade successfully, think like a fundamentalist; trade like a technician. It is imperative that we understand the fundamentals driving a trade, but also that we understand the market’s technicals. When we do, then, and only then, can we or should we, trade.

11. Respect “outside reversals” after extended bull or bear runs. Reversal days on the charts signal the final exhaustion of the bullish or bearish forces that drove the market previously. Respect them, and respect even more “weekly” and “monthly,” reversals.

12. Keep your technical systems simple. Complicated systems breed confusion; simplicity breeds elegance. (more…)

Larry Fink’s $12 Trillion Shadow

  
Analysis, Economy, Education
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Though few Americans know his name, Larry Fink may be the most powerful man in the post-bailout economy. His giant BlackRock money-management firm controls or monitors more than $12 trillion worldwide—including the balance sheets of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the toxic A.I.G. and Bear Stearns assets taken over by the U.S. government last year. How did Fink rebound from a humiliating failure to become the financial fulcrum of Washington and Wall Street? Through a series of interviews, the author probes his role in the crisis, his unique risk-assessment system, and the growing concern he inspires.

Worth Reading ,Just click here

6 Stages Of A Trader

  
  Education
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Very interesting description of how traders evolve over time. The pieces of advice Bo Yoder andVadym Graifer give at the end of the article are spot on. Definitely worth reading as every trader worth his salt can relate to all the different stages. Enjoy.
Stages of a Trader
Stage One: The Mystification Stage (by Bo Yoder)
This is where the neophyte trader begins. He has little or no understanding of market structure. He has no concept of the interrelationship among markets, much less between markets and the economy. Price charts are a meaningless mish-mash of colored lines and squiggles that look more like a painting from the MOMA than anything that contains information. Anyone who can make even a guess about price direction based on this tangle must be using black magic, or voodoo.
However, as one begins to observe, read, study, the mess may begin to resolve itself into something that may make sense. Sort of.
Stage Two: The Hot Pot Stage
You scan the markets every day. After a while (sometimes a good long while), you notice a particular phenomenon which pops up regularly and seems to “work” pretty well. You focus on this pattern. You begin to find more and more instances of it and all of them work! Your confidence in the pattern grows and you decide to take it the very next time it appears. You take it, and almost immediately your stop is hit, and you’re underwater for the total amount of your stop-loss.
So you back off and study this pattern further. And the very next time it appears, it works. And again. And yet again. So you decide to try again. And you take the full hit on your stoploss.
Practically everyone goes through this, but few understand that this is all part of the win-lose cycle. They do not yet understand that loss is an inevitable part of any system/strategy/method/whathaveyou, that is, there is no such thing as a 100% win approach. When they gauge the success of a particular pattern or setup, they get caught up in the win cycle. They don’t wait for the “lose” cycle to see how long it lasts or what the win/lose pattern is. Instead, they keep touching the pot and getting burned, never understanding that it’s not the pot (pattern/setup) that’s the problem, but a failure on their part to understand that it’s the heat from the stove (the market) that they’re paying no attention to whatsoever. So instead of trying to understand the nature of thermal transfer (the market), they avoid the pot (the pattern), moving on to another pattern/setup without bothering to find out whether or not the stove is on. (more…)

Cohan, Money and Power

  
  Education
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Goldman Sachs is not exactly the number one brand in the world. Admittedly, it’s hard to beat Apple these days in popularity contests. But Goldman doesn’t even come close: on the contrary, it’s a firm that people love to hate. William D. Cohan’s Money and Power: How Goldman Sachs Came to Rule the World (Doubleday, 2011) provides fodder for the Goldman haters, exposing among other things a long history of conflicts of interest.

Cohan’s long book is not, however, the stuff that tabloids (or Rolling Stone—think of Matt Taibbi’s piece, later expanded into
Griftopia) are made of. It’s carefully researched, with well-crafted portraits of Goldman’s leading players, definitely worth reading.

Since Cohan’s book has been extensively reviewed, for this post I decided to extract some lessons for individual traders from Goldman’s successes and failures. And Goldman, lest we forget, had a lot of failures.

One lesson is to exploit the weaknesses (or laziness) of others. For instance, a Goldman trader recalled that his boss always called Friday “Goldman Sachs Day,” the rationale being that traders at other firms were goofing off on Friday. If the Goldman traders came in on Friday intent on actually doing something while others had their guard down and were less competitive, their focused energy could make a big difference. (more…)

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