“Jesse Livermore described Wall Street as a ‘giant whorehouse,’ where brokers were ‘pimps’ and stocks ‘whores,’ and where customers queued to throw their money away.” Another psychological aspect that drives me to use timing techniques on my portfolio is understanding myself well enough to know that I could never sit in a buy and hold strategy for two years during 1973 and 1974, watch my portfolio go down 48 percent and do nothing, hoping it would come back someday. With the title alone causing hysterics, placing this on your coffee table will elicit your guests to share their best dot-com horror story. How they invested their $100,000 second mortgage in Cisco Systems at $80 after reading about it, waiting for it to become $500 (as predicted in this very book) only to see it dive to $17. Just the thought of this book gives me the chuckles. You will run out of money before a guru runs out of indicators. There is little point in exploring the Elliott Wave Theory because it is not a theory at all, but rather the banal observation that a price chart comprises a series of peaks and troughs. Depending on the time scale you use, there can be as many peaks and troughs as you care to imagine. If you want a guarantee, buy a toaster. You have to say, “What if?” What if the stocks rally? What if they don’t? Like a catcher, you have to wear a helmet. There is no greater source of conflict among researchers and practitioners in capital market theory than the validity of technical analysis. The vast majority of academic research condemns technical analysis as theoretically bankrupt and of no practical value…It is certainly understandable why many researchers would oppose technical analysis: the validity of technical analysis calls into question decades of careful theoretical modeling [Capital Asset Pricing Model, Arbitrage Pricing Theory] claiming the markets are efficient and investors are collectively, if not individually, rational. The biggest cause of trouble in the world today is that the stupid people are so sure about things and the intelligent folks are so full of doubts. We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit. Forecasts are financial candy. Forecasts give people who hate the feeling of uncertainty something emotionally soothing. Never let the fear of striking out get in your way. The Henry theory— statistically corroborated, of course—is that assets, once in motion, tend to stay in motion without changing direction, and that turns the old saw— buy low, sell high—on its ear. Enron stock was rated as “Can’t Miss” until it became clear that the company was in desperate trouble, at which point analysts lowered the rating to “Sure Thing.” Only when Enron went completely under did a few bold analysts demote its stock to the lowest possible Wall Street analyst rating, “Hot Buy.” “If you don’t risk anything, you risk even more.” “No matter what kind of math you use, you wind up measuring volatility with your gut.” |
Archives of “validity” tag
rssDutch Bank Algo Blamed For GBP Flash Crash
Another rogue algo takes matters into its own binary hands. Time to institute circuit breakers for the tiny FX market, which alone celebrated Obama’s latest set of oratory delight by flash crashing all on its lonesome…
From Goldman’s Mitesh Parikh:
GBP – what just happened
To save being asked anymore times – the short answer is I honestly don’t know.. 1.5290 – 1.5168 between 7.56am and 7.57am.. unlikely it was for a fix (that would make sense if closer to 8am), and price action doesn’t suggest a mis-hit since it was ‘walked’ down over the course of the minute albeit exceptionally aggressively (not everyone executes as subtly as we do… no comments please!) We saw Dutch interbank names selling aggressively towards 1.5200 with some suggestion that their algo blew up from a few market sources, although we can’t comment on the validity of this. Needless to say the market has corrected, cable is back above 1.5300, cross now sub 0.8430 , exactly where we started.
6 Ways to Separate Lies From Statistics
1. Focus on how robust a finding is, meaning that different ways of looking at the evidence point to the same conclusion. Do the same patterns repeat in many data sets, in different countries, industries or eras?
2. Results that are Statistically Significant means it’s unlikely findings simply reflect chance. Don’t confuse this with something actually mattering.
3. Be wary of scholars using high-powered statistical techniques as a bludgeon to silence critics who are not specialists.
4. Don’t fall into the trap of thinking about an empirical finding as “right” or “wrong.”
5. Don’t mistake correlation for causation.
6. Always ask “so what?” The “so what” question is about moving beyond the internal validity of a finding to asking about its external usefulness.