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Some members of US Congress want Fed Chair Powell sacked

  
  Analysis
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This from three members of the US Congress, who seem confused about the remit of a central bank:

Via a Politico report:
  • Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Rashida Tlaib and Ayanna Pressley  … called for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to be replaced
  • “As news of the possible reappointment of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell circulates, we urge President Biden to re-imagine a Federal Reserve focused on eliminating climate risk and advancing racial and economic justice”
Sounds great! I wonder should the Chair print more or less to hit these three added objectives though?
If Yellen was still Chair she’d know how to deal with these clowns.
This from three members of the US Congress, who seem confused about the remit of a central bank:

Recap of the FOMC, “as expected” … but US Congress fiscal policy remains an unknown

  
  Analysis
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Via CIBC Research on Wednesday’s FOMC policy statement.

“Today’s FOMC announcement unfolded largely as expected, with policymakers commenting that economic activity and employment remain well below where they stood prior to the pandemic, despite picking up somewhat in recent months. Indeed, the outlook has become increasingly uncertain since the last meeting on account of the surge in virus cases and the re-tightening of social distancing in many states, with the Fed noting that the path forward for the economy depends significantly on the virus which is expected to weigh heavily on activity in the near term. While the Fed stands ready to do more to support the recovery, as shown by the extension in several credit facilities beyond their initial deadlines, the fiscal support package being discussed by Congress remains an unknown” 

“As a result, they appear to have opted to wait for the September meeting, when the next set of forecasts are due, to provide more concrete forward guidance on future rate hikes by perhaps tying them to the outcome of a macro variable. Tomorrow’s Q2 GDP report will provide a starting point for assessing the scale of the output gap” 

Trump: Admin and Democrats are far apart on virus relief bill

  
  Analysis
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You never know what the real state of play is

There have been so many positive and (mostly) negative reports from top officials about the state of play on negotiations. Ultimately, everyone believes in some kind of compromise and it could happen quickly. The congressional recess is Aug 6, so expect something right before that.
As for the near-term, expect Powell to offer several reminders to Congress to get moving.

Trading Nuggets

  
  Education
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Price — The Truth, The Light, The Way

  • Work to understand price
  • Price does not move in a straight line
  • Big moves take time
  • Volatility is your friend and helps to compress time
  • Although volatility is your pal, it can cut both ways
  • If a stock moves 30% a day, then you can’t trade with a 5% stop
  • Don’t expect a volatile stock to stop behaving as it has been and only move in your favor just because you’re now in it. Unless you’re Bill Clinton, what is, IS.

Random Thoughts:

  • Observe but be slow to shift gears — we are trend followers, not predictors
  • It’s the market’s “job” to shake you out
    • The market will do what it has to do to create the most pain (for the most people)
    • The market will often do the obvious in the most un-obvious manner
  • Err on the side of the longer-term trend
    • DO wait for entries
    • DO use protective stops
    • DO trail and scale as offered
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