1) The majority of traders think directionally, and they think linearly. That has them trading momentum and that has them trading trends. Even the traders who look for reversals look for momentum and trend, just in a different direction.
2) Market behavior can be described as a combination of cyclical and linear (trend) components over any particular time frame. As markets become more crowded, cyclical components dominate over time, reducing the Sharpe ratio of those markets.
3) Traders fail because they are thinking in straight lines when they should be thinking in cycles. They think of cycles as sources of choppiness and noise, not as sources of signals that are different from linear, trending ones.
4) Any market cycle consists of mean-reverting behavior at cycle peaks and troughs and trending behavior between peaks and troughs. This ensures that any single approach to trading markets (looking for trend/momentum; looking for reversal/mean reversion) will draw down substantially over many cycles.
Archives of “trading markets” tag
rssEleven Rules
Rule #1
Be data centric in your approach. Take the time and make the effort to understand what works and what doesn’t. Trading decisions should be objective and based upon the data.
Rule #2
Be disciplined. The data should guide you in your decisions. This is the only way to navigate a potentially hostile and fearful environment.
Rule #3
Be flexible. At first glance this would seem to contradict Rule #2; however, I recognize that markets change and that trading strategies cannot account for every conceivable factor. Giving yourself some wiggle room or discretion is ok, but I would not stray too far from the data or your strategies.
Rule #4
Always question the prevailing dogma. The markets love dogma. “Prices are above the 50 day moving average”, “prices are breaking out”, and “don’t fight the Fed” are some of the most often heard sayings. But what do they really mean for prices? Make your own observations and define your own rules. See Rule #1.
Rule #5
Understand your market edge. My edge is my ability to use my computer to define the price action. I level the playing field by trading markets and not companies.
Rule #6
Money management. Money management. Money management. It is so important that it is worth saying three times. There are so few factors you can control in the markets, but this is one of them. Learn to exploit it.
Rule #7
Time frame. Know the time frame you are operating on. Don’t let a trade turn into an investment and don’t trade yourself out of an investment.
Rule #8
Confidence and conviction. Believe in your strategies and bet wisely but with conviction. There is nothing more frustrating than having a good strategy work as you expect, yet at the end of the day, you have very little winnings to show for your efforts.
Rule #9
Persistence. It takes persistence to operate in the markets. Success doesn’t come easy, and if it does, then I would be careful. Even the best strategies come with losses, and they always seem to come when you get the nerve to make the big bet. Stay with your plan. If you have done your home work, the winning trades will follow.
Rule #10
Passion. In the end, trading has to be about your bottom line, but you have to love what you do and no amount of money is worth it if you aren’t passionate about the process. No matter how much success you enjoy, in the markets you can never stop learning.
Rule #11
Take care of yourself. No amount of money is worth it if your health is failing or you have managed to alienate yourself from family and friends in the process.
11 Rules For Better Trading
Trading in the markets is a process, and there is always room for self improvement. So as we start the new year, here are my 11 rules that help me navigate the markets. By no means is this list exhaustive or exclusive.
Rule #1
Be data centric in your approach. Take the time and make the effort to understand what works and what doesn’t. Trading decisions should be objective and based upon the data.
Rule #2
Be disciplined. The data should guide you in your decisions. This is the only way to navigate a potentially hostile and fearful environment.
Rule #3
Be flexible. At first glance this would seem to contradict Rule #2; however, I recognize that markets change and that trading strategies cannot account for every conceivable factor. Giving yourself some wiggle room or discretion is ok, but I would not stray too far from the data or your strategies.
Rule #4
Always question the prevailing dogma. The markets love dogma. “Prices are above the 50 day moving average”, “prices are breaking out”, and “don’t fight the Fed” are some of the most often heard sayings. But what do they really mean for prices? Make your own observations and define your own rules. See Rule #1.
Rule #5
Understand your market edge. My edge is my ability to use my computer to define the price action. I level the playing field by trading markets and not companies.
Rule #6
Money management. Money management. Money management. It is so important that it is worth saying three times. There are so few factors you can control in the markets, but this is one of them. Learn to exploit it.
Rule #7
Time frame. Know the time frame you are operating on. Don’t let a trade turn into an investment and don’t trade yourself out of an investment. (more…)
11 Rules for Better Trading
Trading in the markets is a process, and there is always room for self improvement. So as we start the new year, here are my 11 rules that help me navigate the markets. By no means is this list exhaustive or exclusive.
Rule #1 Be data centric in your approach : Take the time and make the effort to understand what works and what doesn’t. Trading decisions should be objective and based upon the data.
Rule #2 Be disciplined : The data should guide you in your decisions. This is the only way to navigate a potentially hostile and fearful environment. (more…)
Eleven Rules for Traders
Trading in the markets is a process, and there is always room for self improvement. So as we start the new year, here are my 11 rules that help me navigate the markets. By no means is this list exhaustive or exclusive.
Rule #1
Be data centric in your approach. Take the time and make the effort to understand what works and what doesn’t. Trading decisions should be objective and based upon the data.
Rule #2
Be disciplined. The data should guide you in your decisions. This is the only way to navigate a potentially hostile and fearful environment.
Rule #3
Be flexible. At first glance this would seem to contradict Rule #2; however, I recognize that markets change and that trading strategies cannot account for every conceivable factor. Giving yourself some wiggle room or discretion is ok, but I would not stray too far from the data or your strategies.
Rule #4
Always question the prevailing dogma. The markets love dogma. “Prices are above the 50 day moving average”, “prices are breaking out”, and “don’t fight the Fed” are some of the most often heard sayings. But what do they really mean for prices? Make your own observations and define your own rules. See Rule #1.
Rule #5
Understand your market edge. My edge is my ability to use my computer to define the price action. I level the playing field by trading markets and not companies. (more…)
11 Trading Rules
Rule #1
Be data centric in your approach. Take the time and make the effort to understand what works and what doesn’t. Trading decisions should be objective and based upon the data.
Rule #2
Be disciplined. The data should guide you in your decisions. This is the only way to navigate a potentially hostile and fearful environment.
Rule #3
Be flexible. At first glance this would seem to contradict Rule #2; however, I recognize that markets change and that trading strategies cannot account for every conceivable factor. Giving yourself some wiggle room or discretion is ok, but I would not stray too far from the data or your strategies.
Rule #4
Always question the prevailing dogma. The markets love dogma. “Prices are above the 50 day moving average”, “prices are breaking out”, and “don’t fight the Fed” are some of the most often heard sayings. But what do they really mean for prices? Make your own observations and define your own rules. See Rule #1.
Rule #5
Understand your market edge. My edge is my ability to use my computer to define the price action. I level the playing field by trading markets and not companies.
Rule #6
Money management. Money management. Money management. It is so important that it is worth saying three times. There are so few factors you can control in the markets, but this is one of them. Learn to exploit it.
Rule #7
Time frame. Know the time frame you are operating on. Don’t let a trade turn into an investment and don’t trade yourself out of an investment.
Rule #8
Confidence and conviction. Believe in your strategies and bet wisely but with conviction. There is nothing more frustrating than having a good strategy work as you expect, yet at the end of the day, you have very little winnings to show for your efforts.
Rule #9
Persistence. It takes persistence to operate in the markets. Success doesn’t come easy, and if it does, then I would be careful. Even the best strategies come with losses, and they always seem to come when you get the nerve to make the big bet. Stay with your plan. If you have done your home work, the winning trades will follow.
Rule #10
Passion. In the end, trading has to be about your bottom line, but you have to love what you do and no amount of money is worth it if you aren’t passionate about the process. No matter how much success you enjoy, in the markets you can never stop learning.
Rule #11
Take care of yourself. No amount of money is worth it if your health is failing or you have managed to alienate yourself from family and friends in the process.
My 11 Trading Rules
Trading in the markets is a process, and there is always room for self improvement. Here are my 11 rules that help me navigate the markets. By no means is this list exhaustive or exclusive.
Rule #1
Be data centric in your approach. Take the time and make the effort to understand what works and what doesn’t. Trading decisions should be objective and based upon the data.
Rule #2
Be disciplined. The data should guide you in your decisions. This is the only way to navigate a potentially hostile and fearful environment.
Rule #3
Be flexible. At first glance this would seem to contradict Rule #2; however, I recognize that markets change and that trading strategies cannot account for every conceivable factor. Giving yourself some wiggle
room or discretion is ok, but I would not stray too far from the data or your strategies.
Rule #4
Always question the prevailing dogma. The markets love dogma. “Prices are above the 50 day moving average”, “prices are breaking out”, and “don’t fight the Fed” are some of the most often heard sayings.
But what do they really mean for prices? Make your own observations and define your own rules. See Rule #1. (more…)