This book almost convinced me that the markets are a random walk. I can’t really go into the details of why – you have to read it all before this impression begins to sink in. Compound this with the fact that all in all the economists of the world have said “we have no idea why the markets do what they do.” – Thats their conclusion.

So if they have no idea, what chance have I got? You may find within yourself some buried little impulse to “figure this thing out, once and for all.” – I know what thats like. You look at a chart, and you feel as though its on the tip of your tongue, just out of the minds reach if you will. You know that feeling? As if a thin veil could be lifted and you’d see the inner mechanics of it all. You won’t. Many have gone before you who tried, and still you don’t know where price will go next.

I think what happens is that if we make a certain call in one direction, and price happens to go in our direction, we say “I WAS RIGHT”… But we pay less emphasis when we were wrong. Its the old thing of when you want to buy a yellow VW you see them everywhere all of a sudden.

The impression left by the reading of this book doesn’t so much make me want to throw my hands in the air and give up, but rather it emphasizes the importance of things like risk/reward and high probability. Its not about being right or wrong. I also want to do some research into game theory, which is something that was touched on in the book. Its good how this subject constantly throws up new branches of learning.