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Dickson G. Watts ‘Speculation As A Fine Art’ – A Speculator’s Essential Qualities

  
  Education
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His list of ‘Essential Qualities of the Speculator’ and ‘Laws Absolute” show the timeless value of his insight:

1. Self-Reliance. A man must think for himself,must follow his own convictions. George MacDonald says: “A man cannot have another man’s ideas any more than he can another man’s soul or another man’s body.” Self-trust is the foundation of successful effort.

2. Judgment. That equipoise, that nice adjustment of the faculties one to the other,which is called good judgment, is an essential to the speculator.

3. Courage. That is, confidence to act on the  decisions of the mind. In speculation there is value in Mirabeau’s dictum: “Be bold, still be bold; always be bold.”

4. Prudence. The power of measuring the danger, together with a certain alertness and watchfulness, is very important. There should be a balance of these two, Prudence and Courage;Prudence in  contemplation, Courage in execution.
Lord Bacon says: “In meditation all dangers should be seen; in execution one, unless very formidable.”
Connected with these qualities,properly an outgrowth of them, is a third, viz:
promptness. The mind convinced, the act should follow. In the words of Macbeth; “Henceforth the
very firstlings of my heart shall be the firstlings of my hand.” Think, act, promptly.

5. Pliability. The ability to change an opinion,the power of revision. “He who observes,”says Emerson, “and observes again, is always formidable.”

The qualifications named are necessary to the makeup of a speculator, but they must be in well-balanced
combination. A deficiency or an overplus of one quality will destroy the effectiveness of all. The possession of such faculties, in a proper adjustment is, of course, uncommon. In speculation, as in life, few succeed,many fail.

These are his ‘Laws Absolute’:

1. Never Overtrade. To take an interest larger than the capital justifies is to invite disaster. With such an
interest a fluctuation in the market unnerves the operator, and his judgment becomes worthless.

2. Never “Double Up”; that is, never completely and at once reverse a position. Being “long,” for instance,do not “sell out” and go as much “short.” This may occasionally succeed, but is very hazardous, for should the market begin again to advance, the mind reverts to its original opinion and the speculator “covers up”and “goes long” again. Should this last change be wrong, complete demoralization ensues. The change in the original position should have been made moderately,cautiously, thus keeping the judgment clear and preserving the balance of the mind.

3. “Run Quickly,” or not at all; that is to say, act promptly at the first approach of danger, but failing
to do this until others see the danger, hold on or close out part of the “interest.”

4. Another rule is, when doubtful, reduce the amount of the interest; for either the mind is not satisfied with the position taken, or the interest is too large for safety. One man told another that he could not sleep on account of his position in the market; his friend judiciously and laconically replied: “Sell down to a sleeping point.”

Price, The Conscious Investor

  
  Education
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John Price, author of The Conscious Investor: Profiting from the Timeless Value Approach (Wiley, 2011), began his career as a research mathematician and for thirty-five years taught math, physics, and finance at universities around the world. He then morphed into an entrepreneur, developing stock screening software that emulates Warren Buffett’s investing strategies. And, as is evident from this book, he didn’t neglect his writing skills. He proceeds with the analytical precision of a mathematician but with the facility and clarity of a careful wordsmith.

Price describes over twenty methods of valuation. He explains the circumstances in which each method is most appropriate. He also evaluates each method’s strengths and weaknesses.

Here I am going to confine myself to describing the screen that underlies Price’s own investing system. He focuses on earnings forecasts, offering objective methods in place of the strategies of analysts, which are tainted with behavioral biases. Critically, he screens to find companies that are actually amenable to growth forecasts. They share three characteristics. “The first two, stable growth in earnings and stable return on equity, are based on histories of financial data taken from the financial statements. The third one, strong economic moat, is based on the ability of the company to protect itself from competitors.” (p. 292) Since many readers will be familiar with Warren Buffett’s notion of moats, I will discuss only the first two characteristics and how to measure them.

Price developed a proprietary function called STAEGR which “measures the stability or consistency of the growth of historical earnings per share from year to year, expressed as a percentage in the range of 0 to 100 percent. … STAEGR of 100 percent signifies complete stability, meaning that the data is changing by exactly the same percentage each year. The function has the feature of adjusting for data that could overly distort the result, such as one-off extreme data points, negative data, and data near zero. It also puts more emphasis on recent data.” This function is “independent of the actual growth. This means that whether a company has high or low stability of earnings is independent of whether the earnings are growing or contracting. In this way the two measures, stability and growth, complement each other in describing qualities of historical earnings.” (p. 294) (more…)

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