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10 KEYS TO SUCCESS

1.  How you think is everything – always be positive.  Think success, not failure.  Beware of a negative environment.

2.  Decide upon your true dreams and goals.  Write down your specific goals and develop a plan to reach them.

3.  Take action.  Goals are nothing without action.  Don’t be afraid to get started.  Just do it.

4. Never stop learning.  Go back to school or read books.  Get training and acquire skills.

5.  Be persistent and work hard.  Success is a marathon, not a sprint.  Never give up.

6. Learn to analyze details.  Get all the facts, all the input.  Learn from your mistakes.

7. Focus your time and money.  Don’t let other people or things distract you.

8.  Don’t be afraid to innovate.  Be different.  Following the herd is a sure way to mediocrity.

9.  Deal and communicate with people effectively.  No person is an islan.  Learn to understand and motivate others.

10.  Be honest and dependable.  Take responsibility.  Otherwise, nos. 1-9 won’t matter.

10 KEYS TO SUCCESS

1.  How you think is everything – always be positive.  Think success, not failure.  Beware of a negative environment.

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2.  Decide upon your true dreams and goals.  Write down your specific goals and develop a plan to reach them.

3.  Take action.  Goals are nothing without action.  Don’t be afraid to get started.  Just do it.

4. Never stop learning.  Go back to school or read books.  Get training and acquire skills.

5.  Be persistent and work hard.  Success is a marathon, not a sprint.  Never give up.

6. Learn to analyze details.  Get all the facts, all the input.  Learn from your mistakes.

7. Focus your time and money.  Don’t let other people or things distract you.

8.  Don’t be afraid to innovate.  Be different.  Following the herd is a sure way to mediocrity.

9.  Deal and communicate with people effectively.  No person is an islan.  Learn to understand and motivate others.

10.  Be honest and dependable.  Take responsibility.  Otherwise, nos. 1-9 won’t matter.

Risk & Chance

Here are some interesting quotes from ‘Risk & Chance’ (Dowie and Lefrere) that have a relevance to trading and speculation more generally:

Henslin (1967) notes …dice players behave as if they are controlling the outcome of the toss.  One of the ways they exert this is to toss the dice softly if they want a low number, or hard for a high number.  Another is to concentrate and exert effort when tossing.  These behaviours are quite rational if one believes that the game is a game of skill. 

As a trader I wish I could figure out what portion of my trading results can be attributed to luck, and what portion to skill. The problem is that trading seems to be a game of both skill and luck, so we spend half our time figuring out just how hard we should be throwing the dice. Splitting skill from luck is a problem for all speculators, but high frequency traders can find out much sooner than low frequency macro traders, who only take a few positions each year. In the latter case, it may be close to impossible to look back to a macro trader’s career and make this determination with any reasonable level of certainty.  

De Charms(1968) stated that “Man’s primary propensity is to  be effective in producing changes in his environment.  Man strives to be a causal agent, to be the primary locus of causation for, or the origin of, his behaviour; he strives for personal causation.

The polar opposite of mastery is helplessness.

In the markets, those with an ‘edge’ over the market can be thought of as masters, while those who don’t believe in outperformance of the averages can be thought of as helpless. Of course, in this case the helpless are not truly helpless; they may accept they have no influence on the outcome but provided they accept the proven long-term upward drift of the market, they can choose the path of the low-cost index fund, saving time and money against the perceived masters (on average, the indices outperform).  This doesn’t apply to the foreign exchange market.

Lefcourt (1973)… concluded that “the sense of control, the illusion that one can exercise personal choice, has a definite and positive role in sustaining life.” Thus, people show a preference for controllable over uncontrollable events.The distinction between skill and chance situations is further complicated by the fact that positive outcomes are most often attributed to the actions that precede them.

Think of many of the individuals who have made big gains in the housing market, founders of certain successful businesses, and some flavour-of-the-month fund managers. Positive results, especially those associated with a large monetary gain, often imbue individuals with a false sense of superiority and foresight, or even control, over events that are actually largely outside of their control.  

Market Wisdom from Bernard Baruch

You don’t read a lot about Bernard Baruchanymore, but his teachings about the market are useful today as they always have been. There are several good books about him including his own“Baruch: My Own Story” which I recommend highly especially for those of you looking for a book to take with you on your summer vacations.

Although I’ve provided several quotes from Bernard Baruch through the years, here are some notes that I’ve taken from reading about him and his market wisdom. Enjoy!

    • Baruch started out as most traders do – i.e. losing lots of money because he lacked the knowledge, experience, & discipline. “You have to lose money in order to better yourself.”
      • Real success in the market takes time and money. Unfortunately “most people view the market as the place where the miracle of great and quick riches can be performed with little effort.”
        • Overtrading and holding too many positions in his early years caused Baruch to go broke many times before he developed the discipline to succeed.
          • A successful speculation is “a man who observes the future and acts before it occurs.” Acting swiftly in the market is important.
            • After losing money from the recommendation of others, Baruch focused himself on the facts. “One must search through a maze of complex and contradictory details to get to the significant facts…..Then he must be able to operate coldly, clearly, and skillfully on the basis of those facts.” The challenge for the successful speculator is “how to disentangle the cold hard facts from the rather warm feelings of the people dealing with the facts.” Moreover, “if you get all the facts, your judgment can be right; if you don’t get all the facts, it can’t be right.” (more…)

            Risk & Chance

            Here are some interesting quotes from ‘Risk & Chance’ (Dowie and Lefrere) that have a relevance to trading and speculation more generally:

            Henslin (1967) notes …dice players behave as if they are controlling the outcome of the toss.  One of the ways they exert this is to toss the dice softly if they want a low number, or hard for a high number.  Another is to concentrate and exert effort when tossing.  These behaviours are quite rational if one believes that the game is a game of skill. 

            As a trader I wish I could figure out what portion of my trading results can be attributed to luck, and what portion to skill. The problem is that trading seems to be a game of both skill and luck, so we spend half our time figuring out just how hard we should be throwing the dice. Splitting skill from luck is a problem for all speculators, but high frequency traders can find out much sooner than low frequency macro traders, who only take a few positions each year. In the latter case, it may be close to impossible to look back to a macro trader’s career and make this determination with any reasonable level of certainty.   (more…)

            Keep a Cash Reserve & Be Patient

            There are times when playing the stock mar­ket that your money should be inactive – waiting on the sidelines in cash – waiting to come into play.

            In the stockmarket – time is not money – time is time ­and money is money.
            Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience.

            Patience is the key to success not speed.
            Time is a cunning speculator’s best friend if he uses it right.

            Remember the clever speculator is always patient and has a reserve of cash.

            Jesse Livermore

            Risk & Chance

            Here are some interesting quotes from ‘Risk & Chance’ (Dowie and Lefrere) that have a relevance to trading and speculation more generally:

            Henslin (1967) notes …dice players behave as if they are controlling the outcome of the toss.  One of the ways they exert this is to toss the dice softly if they want a low number, or hard for a high number.  Another is to concentrate and exert effort when tossing.  These behaviours are quite rational if one believes that the game is a game of skill. 

            As a trader I wish I could figure out what portion of my trading results can be attributed to luck, and what portion to skill. The problem is that trading seems to be a game of both skill and luck, so we spend half our time figuring out just how hard we should be throwing the dice. Splitting skill from luck is a problem for all speculators, but high frequency traders can find out much sooner than low frequency macro traders, who only take a few positions each year. In the latter case, it may be close to impossible to look back to a macro trader’s career and make this determination with any reasonable level of certainty.  

            De Charms(1968) stated that “Man’s primary propensity is to  be effective in producing changes in his environment.  Man strives to be a causal agent, to be the primary locus of causation for, or the origin of, his behaviour; he strives for personal causation.

            The polar opposite of mastery is helplessness. (more…)

            Risk & Chance

            Here are some interesting quotes from ‘Risk & Chance’ (Dowie and Lefrere) that have a relevance to trading and speculation more generally:

            Henslin (1967) notes …dice players behave as if they are controlling the outcome of the toss.  One of the ways they exert this is to toss the dice softly if they want a low number, or hard for a high number.  Another is to concentrate and exert effort when tossing.  These behaviours are quite rational if one believes that the game is a game of skill. 

            As a trader I wish I could figure out what portion of my trading results can be attributed to luck, and what portion to skill. The problem is that trading seems to be a game of both skill and luck, so we spend half our time figuring out just how hard we should be throwing the dice. Splitting skill from luck is a problem for all speculators, but high frequency traders can find out much sooner than low frequency macro traders, who only take a few positions each year. In the latter case, it may be close to impossible to look back to a macro trader’s career and make this determination with any reasonable level of certainty.  

            De Charms(1968) stated that “Man’s primary propensity is to  be effective in producing changes in his environment.  Man strives to be a causal agent, to be the primary locus of causation for, or the origin of, his behaviour; he strives for personal causation.

            The polar opposite of mastery is helplessness. (more…)

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