Archives of “thought processes” tag

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Buffett's 2010 Letter To Shareholders

  
Analysis, Education, US Market
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For those who care what the man whose corporate existence is intimately tied to the government’s bailout of the financial system, has to say, below we present Buffett’s 2010 letter to shareholders. 

The only section that is relevant to us, and which continues to demonstrate why Berkshire is a walking moral hazard (contrary to his conedmnation of financial weapons of mass destruction), is the disclosure on derivatives.

 
 

Derivatives

Two years ago, in the 2008 Annual Report, I told you that Berkshire was a party to 251 derivatives contracts (other than those used for operations at our subsidiaries, such as MidAmerican, and the few left over at Gen Re). Today, the comparable number is 203, a figure reflecting both a few additions to our portfolio and the unwinding or expiration of some contracts.

Our continuing positions, all of which I am personally responsible for, fall largely into two categories. We view both categories as engaging us in insurance-like activities in which we receive premiums for assuming risks that others wish to shed. Indeed, the thought processes we employ in these derivatives transactions are identical to those we use in our insurance business. You should also understand that we get paid up-front when we enter into the contracts and therefore run no counterparty risk. That’s important.

Our first category of derivatives consists of a number of contracts, written in 2004-2008, that required payments by us if there were bond defaults by companies included in certain high-yield indices. With minor exceptions, we were exposed to these risks for five years, with each contract covering 100 companies. In aggregate, we received premiums of $3.4 billion for these contracts. When I originally told you in our 2007 Annual Report about them, I said that I expected the contracts would deliver us an “underwriting profit,” meaning that our losses would be less than the premiums we received. In addition, I said we would benefit from the use of float. (more…)

This explains almost everything…

  
  Education
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Are we addicted to being right? Is being thought of as being right more important to us than actually being right?

You tell me…

From the Harvard Business Review:

In situations of high stress, fear or distrust, the hormone and neurotransmitter cortisol floods the brain. Executive functions that help us with advanced thought processes like strategy, trust building, and compassion shut down. And the amygdala, our instinctive brain, takes over. The body makes a chemical choice about how best to protect itself — in this case from the shame and loss of power associated with being wrong — and as a result is unable to regulate its emotions or handle the gaps between expectations and reality. So we default to one of four responses: fight (keep arguing the point), flight (revert to, and hide behind, group consensus), freeze (disengage from the argument by shutting up) or appease (make nice with your adversary by simply agreeing with him).

All are harmful because they prevent the honest and productive sharing of information and opinion. But, as a consultant who has spent decades working with executives on their communication skills, I can tell you that the fight response is by far the most damaging to work relationships. It is also, unfortunately, the most common.

The golden rules of banking

  
Analysis, Education
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THE crisis has taught people a lot about the banking industry and the thought processes of its leaders. These lessons can be distilled into four golden rules.

1. The laws of supply and demand do not apply. When food producers compete to supply a supermarket, the retailer has the luxury of selecting the lowest bidder. But when it comes to investment banking, wages are very high even though the number of applicants is vastly greater than the number of posts. If the same was true of, say, hospital cleaning, wages would be slashed.

An investment bank, like a supermarket, demands a certain quality standard: it will not hire just anybody. But whereas it may be easy to identify a rotten banana, it is harder to be sure which trainee will be the next Nick Leeson and which the potential George Soros. That gives executives an excuse when things go wrong.

2. Success is down to my genius; failure is caused by someone else. When banks do well, and profits soar, the bosses are responsible for it all with their strategic cunning and inspiring leadership. Huge bonuses are therefore due. (more…)

Trading Wisdom

  
  Education
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“You are the sum total of ALL your experiences in life.

And if you discount ANY of them ~ you negate and discount your very ability to be a consistent and successful trader.

So ~ what IS your definition of CONFIDENT?

If we look up the definition of the word “confident” in Roget’s Thesaurus as you know I like to do, we can find the following:

“…believing, undoubting, unhesitating, without a doubt, convinced, satisfied, assured, unafraid, courageous, unscarred, undaunted, daring, venturesome…”

Is that you?  Is that your definition?  Or, is this your definition:

“…hopeful, expecting, try to reassure, hold out hope, make promise to…”

Or do you know?  Right now, if someone were to ask you what your definition of confidence is ~ what would you say?  Right off the top of your head? (more…)

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