Archives of “Thomson Reuters” tag

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Reuters Tankan (May) – Business sentiment hits decade lows

  
Analysis, Economy
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Reuters report on their monthly Tanakn survey for May 2020:

  • slump in Japan business mood deepens, hits decade lows again on coronavirus woes

Manufacturers index -44 in May vs -30 in April,  falls to lowest level since June 2009

  • non-manufacturers index -36 vs -23 …  lowest level since Dec 2009

Manufacturers august index seen at -51

  • non-manufacturers -48
The BOJ easy money policy is firmly entrenched, such a dire outlook in Japan. The extent you use central bank policy to assist your currency view, bearish yen.

China said to stagger reopening of schools in order to limit coronavirus transmission

  
  Analysis
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Reuters reports, citing a government official on the matter

No firm date is being given on the matter but earlier in the month, China has said that students will only return to school next month.

It makes sense to split the reopening into batches but if anything else, it just goes to show that it will take more time before China returns back to normality again.

Not a good day, week or month for European indices

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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Major indices also closed down sharply on the week

It was not a good day for the European stock markets with all the major indices closing over -1.1% on the day.

The provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX -1.22%
  • France’s CAC, -1.1%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, -1.4%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -1.1%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -2.29%
For the week, the major indices had sharp falls as well. The provisional changes for the week show:
  • German DAX, -4.3%
  • France’s CAC, -3.5%
  • UK’s FTSE 100 -4.0%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -1.9%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -3%
For the month of January, major indices were also negative.  The provisional changes for the month show:
  • German DAX, -2%
  • France’s CAC, -2.87%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, -3.4%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -1.76%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -1.15%
Not a good day, not a good week, and not a good start to the year for the European indices

A snapshot pic of the final UK election polls – Cons still ahead

  
  Analysis
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This is a screenshot via Reuters summary of the most recent polls.

This is a screenshot via Reuters summary of the most recent polls.
The question for GBP is will Boris Johnson’s Conservatives get a workable majority in parliament, which would give some certainty on Brexit. A hung parliament cannot be ruled out, but the suggested outcome of those polls above is aa win for BJ and some certainty on Brexit ahead.
Caveats (of course)
  1. The trend has been a narrowing in the gap between the two major parties (I’ve posted a couple of summary pieces on this yesterday and today)
  2. This is not over. Polls open in the UK Thursday moirning and by this time tomorrow we’ll be getting results trickling in.

EU official dismisses earlier report, says “no bold new offer is coming”

  
  Analysis
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Reuters reports, citing an EU official on the matter

Adds that EU diplomats have said that the report is “not true” and have dismissed it as “spin” amid ongoing Brexit negotiations. The Guardian’s Brussels correspondent, Jennifer Rankin, adds to the above claim with a tweet earlier:

“The EU is *not* about to make a big bold offer to allow Stormont to exit part of the Brexit withdrawal agreement, in order to break the Brexit deadlock I hear from EU sources.”

Not like it matters all too much now after we have heard from the DUP on the matter

Trading on Sentiment: Book Review

  
  Education
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We all know that sentiment is a critically important ingredient in the pricing of tradable assets. But it is extremely difficult to move from this general and somewhat amorphous principle to a trading/investing edge. Richard L. Peterson takes up this challenge inTrading on Sentiment: The Power of Minds Over Markets (Wiley, 2016).
Peterson is the CEO of MarketPsych, a firm that in 2011 joined forces with Thomson Reuters to produce the Thomson Reuters MarketPsych Indices (TRMI), sentiment data feed covering five asset classes and 7,500 individual companies that Thomson Reuters distributes to its clients. As the Thomson Reuters website explains, these indices use “real-time linguistic and psychological analysis of news and social media to quantify how the public regards various asset classes according to dozens of sentiments including optimism, fear, trust and uncertainty.”
Odds are that, unless you’re a bank or hedge fund employee, you won’t have access to TRMI. Peterson’s book is the next best thing, although you have to realize that if you want to incorporate sentiment (not some proxy for sentiment) into your trading decisions and can’t do big data analysis yourself, you’re working with one hand tied behind your back.
Trading on Sentiment is divided into five parts: foundations, short-term patterns, long-term patterns, complex patterns and unique assets, and managing the mind.

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