There’s a narrative emerging around OPEC+ and shale: The mainstream thinking is that Russia and Saudi Arabia want to drive crude prices lower to kill US frackers.

I don’t think it’s correct, or at least not wholly correct.

The reality is that shale didn’t make any money in 2019 at $55 oil. Even at that price, it was on its way to mass insolvencies, albeit at a slower pace. I’ve been writing about the bust in shale for more than a year.

All this talk that OPEC+ wont’ cut without the US is a bluff. Why? Because shale is still going bust at $30-$40 oil.