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Highly-reliable reversal signals

highly-reliable reversal signals

For now, ignore the red candles and focus only on the white and black candles that form the left sides of each drawing.

You may have noticed that a lot of “spikers” have gone up too far too fast. These are the stocks that become perfect short candidates for a 1-3 day hold. You may have noticed some of the patterns (above) before, but I’ll give you some examples and what to look out for.

Evening Stars are one of the most reliable reversal patterns available. The failure rate is extremely low and I can’t remember the last time I had a major problem with them. What’s happening is that as each day passes during the rally, the open-close range gets smaller meaning that the buying is starting to slow down. The “cross”, called the doji, at the top signals that the rally has entirely stalled and there is some confusing among both bulls and bears as to which direction the stock should go. This doji day is critical because what happens the next day will most likely continue in the direction of the winner.

Because the rally stalled, it means that the bears have taken some control away from the bulls and there is a very high chance that the stock could drop the very next day. If that does occur, that’s called the evening star and that consists of a long white candle, the doji in the middle, and a down day. Just because a stock dropped to confirm this pattern does not mean that it’s too late to short. Most of the times, this is only the beginning.

Shooting Stars are one of my favorite patterns. They remind me of a comet (or shooting star) falling down to Earth and that’s exactly how the Japanese rice futures traders named this pattern. It’s an ominous sign that a stock (or rice) will drop very, very soon. (more…)

Candlestick Pattern Dictionary

  • Abandoned Baby: Abandoned Baby Candlestick example image from StockCharts.comA rare reversal pattern characterized by a gap followed by a Doji, which is then followed by another gap in the opposite direction. The shadows on the Doji must completely gap below or above the shadows of the first and third day.
  • Dark Cloud Cover: Dark Cloud Cover Candlestick example image from StockCharts.comA bearish reversal pattern that continues the uptrend with a long white body. The next day opens at a new high then closes below the midpoint of the body of the first day.
  • Doji: Doji Candlestick example image from StockCharts.comDoji form when a security’s open and close are virtually equal. The length of the upper and lower shadows can vary, and the resulting candlestick looks like, either, a cross, inverted cross, or plus sign. Doji convey a sense of indecision or tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. Prices move above and below the opening level during the session, but close at or near the opening level.
  • Downside Tasuki Gap: Downside Tasuki Gap Candlestick example image from StockCharts.comA continuation pattern with a long, black body followed by another black body that has gapped below the first one. The third day is white and opens within the body of the second day, then closes in the gap between the first two days, but does not close the gap. (more…)

7 Major Candlestick Reversal Pattern Pairs

Candlestick reversal patterns can be a boon to any trader’s repertoire. Combining them with support/resistance lines and other indicators can increase a trader’s edge substantially. Each set below contains both the bearish and bullish counterparts. These are ideal setups that require directional movement (i.e. nothing range bound). The more volume at the given point, the more strength each of these patterns portend.

Realize that a candlestick pattern is simply a means of reading data on the chart. Whether you trade forex, stocks, options or futures it is a superior tool for technical analysis.
Once you become familliar with the basic candlestick patterns you will quickly assimilate their meaning and easily interpret them.
The patterns are basically intuitive and the learning curve is small.
There comes a point where you will recognize market sentiment without even identifying a specific candlestick pattern.
No matter what system style or technique you may implement the fact is you will be that much more effective by making candlestick charts your tool of choice.
The alternatives or archaic to say the least, and downright ugly once you get used to using Japanese candlesticks.
Candlestick charts are the most widely used for of charting for good reason. With a little practice and help, it is actually the most intuitive process for understanding current and future price action.
 harami7

 

 Bearish and Bullish Harami
Identified by a long bar followed by a very short one. Harami signal a loss of momentum and a possible reversal.

darkpiercing6
Dark Cloud Cover and Bullish Piercing Pattern – The dark cloud cover and bullish piercing patterns reveal weakness in the current trend and emerging strength in the opposition. (more…)

Candlesticks: Patterns Signalling Range-Trading

  • Doji
    • Psychological state of uncertainty.
  • Engulfing / Outside bars
    • This pattern must appear after a preceding trend in the price.
    • An outside bar would have taken out the stops of both the bulls and the bears, with no follow-through. Hence both sides become less confident and this leads to range-trading behavior.
  • Hammer bottom
    • After a downtrend, the market opens near to the previous close, drops a lot, before closing the period up towards the level at which it opened.
    • Signals an end of the downtrend where the next period will be characterised by range trading.
  • Shooting star
    • After an uptrend, the market opens near the previous close, rallies a lot, but closes the period down towards the level at which it opened.
    • Signals that that supply and demand have become more balanced, and this balance can mean range trading.
  • Hanging man
    • After an uptrend, market does not rise much but falls a lot, before closing back up near to the level at which it opened.
    • This is bearish, and represents the last buyers getting into the uptrend.
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