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Reasons for the sliding oil price pile up

  • Crude oil prices collapsed, with Brent crude closing under USD40/bbl for the first time since June
  • risk-off tone across markets 
  • stronger USD headwinds
  • tone was set earlier this week after Saudi Aramco cut its prices to Asian refiners, suggesting demand is weak
  • Bloomberg survey showed that only four out of ten Asian refiners would be subsequently trying to buy more Saudi crude
  • Abu Dhabi National Oil Co also cut its prices on Tuesday
  • US refiners are also cutting output, as the summer driving season ends and inventories remain high
  • rising COVID-19 infections across the globe doesn’t bode well for demand in the short term
  • futures markets widening in the contango for both Brent and WTI to their widest levels since May

Saudi Aramco has reduced the volume of crude it will supply to Asia

Reuters report citing four unnamed sources that the world’s largest oil exporter has cut August heavy crude supply for some Asian refiners

  • at least four buyers in Asia
  • cuts were mainly for Arab Heavy crude
No further details in the Reuters report.

Saudi Arabia has slashed its oil price for all crude

State oil giant Saudi Aramco statement on Saturday – cuts its official selling price for April for all its crude grades to all destinations

UPDATE – news about also Saudi plans to ramp up output, to well in excess of 10m bpd – I’ll post more on this separately
  • its Arab light crude oil to the United States cut to a discount of $3.75 per barrel, down $7 a barrel from March
  • to Northwestern Europe to a discount of $10.25 per barrel to Ice Brent, down $8 a barrel
Comes in the wake of the crumbling of OPEC+ plans late in the week, the OPEC/Russia pact expired without further agreement after 3 years in place.
State oil giant Saudi Aramco statement on Saturday - cuts its official selling price for April for all its crude grades to all destinations

Aramco’s IPO has lessons for Asia’s state-owned oil companies

Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia’s state-controlled oil company, held a record-breaking initial public offering earlier in December, becoming the world’s most valuable listed company, ahead of Apple of the U.S.

The listing on the Riyadh stock market on Dec. 11 gave Aramco a market value of $1.877 trillion. The $25.6 billion raised was also a record, breaking the previous mark set in 2014 by China’s e-commerce leader, Alibaba Group Holding.

The IPO has set off speculation about how the stock flotation will affect other state-owned oil producers, especially in Asia.

According to the International Monetary Fund’s latest forecast, Saudi Arabia will incur a fiscal deficit of 178.5 billion riyals ($47.57 billion) in 2019, staying in the red for the sixth consecutive year. The economy of the kingdom is greatly affected by the price of crude oil, which generates 70% of government revenue. As the world moves toward alternative forms of energy to combat climate change, the risks of relying heavily on oil will grow.

In 2016, Saudi Arabia adopted the Vision 2030 plan aimed at reducing its dependence on oil and creating a sustainable growth model. The listing of Aramco is key to the shift. (more…)

OPEC+ said to be discussing deepening current oil output cuts at least until June

Reuters reports, citing two unnamed sources on the matter

Says that OPEC+ is discussing to deepen the current set of output cuts by at least 0.4 mil bpd until June next year as Saudi Arabia is keen to surprise the market to the upside before the Saudi Aramco IPO.

Saudi Arabia floats change to Japan oil supply, sparks concern

Saudi Aramco has notified Japan’s top oil distributor about a potential change in shipments, stoking concerns about the kingdom’s ability to supply crude following attacks on its major refineries a week ago, Nikkei learned Saturday.

State-owned Aramco did not say why it wants to change the oil grade it supplies to JXTG Nippon Oil & Energy from light to heavy and medium, starting in October, JXTG officials said.

But the move indicates that the Saudi national oil company is having a hard time restoring its production as quickly as it has promised, despite repeated assurances that the company’s supply would be restored by the end of September.

Two of Aramco’s refineries were attacked in what is believed to be a drone and cruise missile strikes on Sept. 14. The attacks, which were claimed by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, knocked out more than half the country’s oil production.

JXTG officials said they suspect that Aramco is taking more time than expected to repair its desulfurization facility, which is necessary to produce light-grade crude used in the production of gasoline and light gas oil.

Saudi Arabia accounted for almost 40% of Japanese oil imports in fiscal 2018. (more…)

Weekend oil news – Russia & Saudi Arabia agree to extend OPEC+ oil output curbs

Russian President Vladimir Putin, over the weekend, said Russia has agreed with Saudi Arabia to extend the deal with OPEC on reducing oil output.

  • For 6 to 9 months
  • “We will support the extension, both Russia and Saudi Arabia. As far as the length of the extension is concerned, we have yet to decide whether it will be six or nine months. Maybe it will be nine months,”
Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih also said deal would likely be extended.
The output agreement is expected to be extended in its current form and with the same volumes.
OPEC plus (OPEC plus key oil producing allies) begin their meeting today, Monday 1 July
Russian President Vladimir Putin, over the weekend, said Russia has agreed with Saudi Arabia to extend the deal with OPEC on reducing oil output.

Can the Saudis destroy the NYMEX?

saudi_oilRead more here:
For Saudi Arabia, it is a philosophical issue that the black gold pouring out of its deserts should be treated as a tangible, physical commodity – not the paper plaything of traders on Wall Street hedging against the weak dollar. This thinking is at the heart of the Middle Eastern country’s decision last week to abandon its long alliance with West Texas Intermediate crude – the famous oil used by most global producers to price their exports to the US.
It is both a technical issue and a symbolic shift that strikes a blow to the domin-ance of the New York Mercan-tile Exchange, the world’s biggest centre of oil trading where the most popular products relate to WTI crude. (more…)

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