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Reuters Tankan (May) – Business sentiment hits decade lows

Reuters report on their monthly Tanakn survey for May 2020:

  • slump in Japan business mood deepens, hits decade lows again on coronavirus woes

Manufacturers index -44 in May vs -30 in April,  falls to lowest level since June 2009

  • non-manufacturers index -36 vs -23 …  lowest level since Dec 2009

Manufacturers august index seen at -51

  • non-manufacturers -48
The BOJ easy money policy is firmly entrenched, such a dire outlook in Japan. The extent you use central bank policy to assist your currency view, bearish yen.

Japanese business sentiment has fallen to a decade low (Reuters Tankan)

Bad data from the March survey, which is not surprising. ‘Highlights’ via Reuters report:

  • manufacturers’ sentiment index -20 vs Feb -5
  • Service-sector index -10 in March vs +15 in Feb
  • Manufacturers mood down ahead, service-sector flat
souring business mood could derail capital spending
All manufacturers across industries were pessimistic about business conditions,
Among service sector firms, no firms except those in real estate/construction and information/communications were optimistic.
Most of the companies expressed fears of the virus’ impact on their business, on top of already weak consumer spending due to an October sales tax hike and sluggish global demand aggravated by the U.S.-China trade war.
Reuters poll of 501 large- and mid-sized nonfinancial companies, of which 242 firms responded
Bank of Japan’s tankan quarterly survey is due April 1

G7 statement still under discussion

Reuters citing an unnamed source

  • statement being drafted on coronavirus response
  • to be issued Tuesday or Wednesday
  • does not include specific language calling for fresh fiscal spending or coordinated interest rate cuts
  • finance leaders will pledge to work together to mitigate economic damage
  • statement still under discussion,. language subject to change
Uh-oh …. this’ll put a cat amongst the pigeons
Prompting Flows into yen

North Korea warns the US that there may not be deunclearisation if sanctions continue

Some comments from North Korea being cited by Reuters

US NK
  • US has ignored year-end deadline for nuclear talks
  • No reason for North Korea to be unilaterally bound to any commitment
  • US is applying ‘the most brutal and inhuman sanctions’
  • If US continues with ‘hostile policies’ towards North Korea, there will never be denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula
Much like the Iran issue, this is one that does not really matter until it does – when something escalates in a significant manner. For now, just take note that US-North Korea relations have been deteriorating as of late and tensions are beginning to mount once again.

The UN Security Council will meet this week to discuss North Korea

Reuters (citing diplomats and a request from the United States) report the council will meet on Wednesday

  • it will discuss North Korea’s recent missile launches
Over the weekend NK conducted an unspecified “very important test” at its Dongchang-ri satellite launch site
I wonder if we’ll see a yen response? NK issues have, in the past, prompted yen buying (a flight to liquidity response, the USD also a beneficiary) but this has diminished.
North Korea kim yen

Saudi Aramco lures sovereign funds to $2 trillion IPO valuation

Reuters, exclusive

Reuters, exclusive
This just out from Reuters
‘State-owned Saudi Aramco has approached Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA), Singapore’s GIC and other sovereign wealth funds to invest in the domestic leg of the oil giant’s listing at it seeks to achieve a $2 trillion (1.6 trillion pounds) valuation, sources said’

IPO process still carrying on, despite the drone attacks mid-month.

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