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Book Review: No One Would Listen

  
  Education
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This is a book about Harry Markopolos, who is the author of this book.  He talks about how he attempted  for years to expose the fraud that was Bernie Madoff.

The book takes the following form (from my view of how the author sees it):

  • How he came to a quick conclusion that Bernie Madoff was a fraud.
  • How he tried to convince others of that view, especially those that were feeding more money to Madoff.
  • Two journalists took his side and wrote about Madoff in 2001 or so, but to no avail.
  • Trying to come up with a similar strategy that would work, though it would return much less than Madoff’s supposed returns, and finding few would invest in it.
  • Fruitless wranglings with the clueless SEC.
  • Finally, in 2009, Madoff blows up.
  • Vindicated, he talks to the media, Congress, and anyone who will listen.
  • He excoriates the toothless SEC, and proposes better ways to root out financial fraud.

That’s the book in a nutshell.  But stylistically, the book harps on how no one would listen.  Well, duh.  No one did listen, or the book would have been over sooner.

People are not Vulcans.  They aren’t logical.  Most don’t think; instead, they mimic.  “If it works for him, it will work for me also.”

That was the case with Madoff.  He maneuvered many sheep into position to be fleeced, and worse, they begged for the privilege to be his clients.

There were many red flags flying:

  • No independent custodian
  • No independent Trustee
  • Small Auditor, incapable of auditing such an enterprise.
  • Returns were too smooth for being so high.
  • The asset size was to large for the markets supposedly employed.
  • Even front-running profits would not be enough, were Madoff to do that.
  • No profit motive.  Other managers with lesser track records charged more.
  • Marketing was by invitation.
  • Investors were sworn to secrecy.
  • And more, read the book. (more…)

Top ten reasons you know China has a financial bubble on its hands

  
Analysis, Economy, Education
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Edward Chancellor, author of the seminal book on financial speculation and manias “Devil Take The Hindmost,” is now turning his eyes to China.  He sees a number of red flags which point to excess in China.

Chancellor writes:

In the aftermath of the credit crunch, the outlook for most developed economies appears pretty bleak. Households need to deleverage. Western governments will have to tighten their purse strings. Faced with such grim prospects at home, many investors are turning their attention toward China. It’s easy to see why they are excited. China combines size – 1.3 billion inhabitants – with tremendous growth prospects. Current income per capita is roughly one-tenth of U.S. levels. The People’s Republic also has a great track record. Over the past thirty years, China’s Gross Domestic Product has increased sixteen-fold.

So what’s the catch? The trouble is that China today exhibits many of the characteristics of great speculative manias. The aim of this paper is to describe the common features of some of the great historical bubbles and outline China’s current vulnerability.

Everyone knows there is extreme levels of excess. The latest report from Andy Xie on local governments shows that governments are now depending on asset prices for revenue, much as they did in places like California during America’s housing bubble.

How can we identify a speculative mania? Chancellor says:

bubbles can be identified ex ante, as the economists like to say. There also exists an interesting, if rather neglected, body of research on leading indicators of financial distress. A few years ago, many of these indicators were pointing to rising economic vulnerability in the United States and other parts of the globe. Today, those red flags are flying around Wall Street’s current darling, The People’s Republic of China.

James Rickards thinks this is the greatest bubble in history. Even Sino-enthusiast Stephen Roach is pointing to a bubble in China. He just thinks the government will be able to prevent its dragging down the real economy.

That’s because Beijing was vigilant in preventing asset and credit bubbles from spilling over into the real side of the Chinese economy. This was very different from the Japan endgame of the late 1980s, where the confluence of equity and property bubbles led to a massive overhang of excess capacity.

Roach’s confidence sounds an awful lot like blind faith in the Chinese authorities to me – exactly the opposite of what Roach’s former colleague Andy Xie is saying.

Chancellor includes this blind faith in the 10 signposts of manias and financial crises (very reminiscent of Kindelberger, by the way).

  1. “Great investment debacles generally start out with a compelling growth story.”

     

    100% yes. Check.

  2. “Blind faith in the competence of the authorities.”

     

    See Roach’s comments above or read Goldilocks is not sleeping in America anymore; she’s now in China. Check.

  3. “A general increase in investment is another leading indicator of financial distress. Capital is generally misspent during periods of euphoria. Only during the bust does the extent of the misallocation become clear.” (more…)

Common Trading Mistakes

  
  Education
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In trading, as in life in general, we all know that experience is the best teacher. However, failures in stock market trading bear more weight since you stand to lose thousands of dollars (or more) with each mistake that you make. So as to help you recognize red flags and prevent you from losing money further, here is a list of some common mistakes you might want to avoid.

# 1: Lack of proper knowledge
Many people who come into stock trading with the notion that they can simply learn the ropes along the way may be fatally mistaken. This is because this kind of activity requires some degree of stock market know-how, as well as experience. First, you have to learn how to trade stocks, because this is the only that you can be familiar with terms, such as “stocks,” “shares,” “dividends,” “trends,” and so on. Without proper education, you might make decisions that could prove to be costly in the future. If you want to engage in trading, the first rule is for you to learn about the basics-read a book, enroll in a course, attend lectures by experts-anything that can help you understand what this is all about.

# 2: Acting on Impulse
In learning stock trading, you will realize that many emotions may come into play as you go through each and every transaction-impatience, greed, fear, and over confidence are some of these emotions. One of the most common mistakes people commit while trading is making decisions based on impulse. While it is true that you can feel a wide range of emotions as you evaluate the data in front of you, do remember that a cool, logical reasoning must prevail. Do whatever you can to always make decisions on a clear head.

# 3: Not having enough practice
As you engage in trading, the saying that “practice makes perfect” could not be truer. Again, if you want to learn how to trade stocks and are serious about engaging in trading, then you should also enhance your skills apart from just learning the basics. However, you could not afford the trial and error method using real money, because this is impractical and a waste of time. Fortunately, there are now some sophisticated tools that can help you practice through simulated trading and practice accounts. For a fee, companies can help you set up a practice account, through which you can execute “simulated trading.” What this does is it helps you learn how to trade stocks by honing your skills without the risk of losing actual money.

# 4: Having unrealistic expectations
Finally, another common mistake in trading is having unrealistic expectations. Sure, we may have all heard of those who got rich quick because of the stock market, but you cannot expect to earn millions without being able to make sound decisions based on fact. In the process of learning stock trading, you must be able to set a clear set of objectives, and not unrealistic expectations that could lead you to make rash (and costly) decisions.

In the future, try to avoid committing similar mistakes so that you can truly benefit from the time and effort you are trading in the stock market.

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