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IMF WARNING: Britain could follow Greece?

There were fears that Britain could follow Greece into a financial crisis after a global finance chief warned of economic “contagion” spreading across Europe.

The head of the International Monetary Fund urged politicians to finalise a bail-out for the debt-laden Mediterranean country, saying that every day lost in resolving the problems risked spreading the impact “far away”.

Dominique Strauss-Kahn’s comments came amid more evidence of Europe’s mounting fiscal problems after Spain’s debt was downgraded – a move recently applied to its under-pressure neighbour Portugal as well as Greece.

On Wednesday, shadow chancellor George Osborne raised the spectre of the crisis affecting the public finances of the UK, which faces dealing with its own £163 billion mountain of public borrowing. (more…)

Another Massively Interactive European Chart

With all chart porn these days focusing on Europe, the Economist may have outdone itself with this combo set of all key financial and economic statistics for European countries.

Here is the caption provided by the Economist:

 
 

EUROPE is damned if it does and damned if it doesn’t, fiscally speaking. Fears that Greece’s debt crisis presage similar episodes elsewhere in the euro zone—notably in Portugal and Spain—have sent sovereign-bond yields for several southern European countries drifting higher, and have fuelled fears about the exposure of Europe’s banks to indebted governments. Attempts to rein in the public finances may calm bond markets but they also risk weakening growth, which makes life more difficult for exporters in places like China and America, and spells trouble of a different kind for the banks.

The interactive graphic above underlines some of the problems that the European economy faces. In 2009 only Poland of the 27 countries in the European Union managed to record positive growth. Although many countries have now returned to growth, it is generally anaemic. In many countries unemployment rates have not risen as much as you might expect given the depth of the crisis—there are times when making it hard to fire people has some advantages. But the flipside of labour-market rigidity is that the unemployment rate may be “sticky”, because firms have less need to hire as recovery takes hold. That will keep demand growth subdued.

Mediocre growth rates are more of a problem for some countries than others. They spell particular trouble for those that have high levels of debt and that do not have the option to devalue their currencies. That explains why Greece was first to lose the confidence of the markets: with a public-debt-to-GDP ratio of 115% and a budget deficit of 13.6% in 2009, it was the euro zone’s outlier country. Other countries are now scrambling to avoid Greece’s fate. Ireland, another heavily indebted euro-zone member, embarked on austerity early; Portugal and Spain, whose problems stem as much from levels of external and private debt as from government borrowing, have had their hands forced. Others still are pruning before the markets exert real pressure: Britain’s debt has the longest maturity of any EU member but it is still aiming to get its finances in order within four savage years.

Full chart after the jump

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