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US media says Iran launched nearly a dozen cruise missiles and over 20 drones in attack on Saudi

ABC news citing an unnamed Trump administration official

  • Iran launched nearly a dozen cruise missiles 
  • over 20 drones from its territory
  • a senior Trump administration official told ABC News Sunday.
officially:
  • so far, there’s been no public accusation that Iran launched missiles
Adds ABC:
  • But a senior U.S. official told ABC News Saturday that was false: “It was Iran. The Houthis are claiming credit for something they did not do.”
  • Pompeo tweeted that there was “no evidence the attacks came from Yemen.”
ABC news citing an unnamed Trump administration official

Pres. Trump: Tariffs that are set to go in place on Sunday against China are still on

Pres Trump says tariffs will go on as planned on Sunday.

Pres Trump says tariffs will go on as planned on Sunday.
Before departing the White House for the weekend told reporters,
  • He can’t say whether he will speak to Xi, but US is speaking to China
  • Tariffs set to go in place on Sunday against China are still on
  • “We are going to win the fight” with China
  • Trade meeting with China in September is still on, it has not been canceled
  • US is in incredible negotiating position with China because of tariffs it has placed on Chinese imports
  • He sees a connection between situation in Hong Kong and China trade talks
  • Chinese response in Hong Kong will be much more violent if were not for the trade talks
  • Repeats China wants to make a trade deal
On other topics:
  • Too soon to call for evacuation Florida.  Determination will likely be made on Sunday
  • Asked if he would like to see negative interest rates in the United States, says no.

The squeeze remains on.

Trump says euro ‘dropping like crazy’ as he laments dollar

Trump with his usual rant against the dollar and the Fed

The latest tweet:
The Euro is dropping against the Dollar “like crazy,” giving them a big export and manufacturing advantage…and the Fed does NOTHING! Our Dollar is now the strongest in history. Sounds good, doesn’t it? Except to those (manufacturers) that make product for sale outside the U.S. We don’t have a Tariff problem (we are reigning in bad and/or unfair players), we have a Fed problem. They don’t have a clue!
Here’s what ‘like crazy’ looks like:
Trump with his usual rant against the dollar and the Fed
The euro is down 0.75% against the US dollar in the past three months. The euro is higher today than it was on the day Trump was elected… ‘like crazy’ indeed.
EURUSD in Trump's term
Trump is continuing and says:
If the Fed would cut, we would have one of the biggest Stock Market increases in a long time. Badly run and weak companies are smartly blaming these small Tariffs instead of themselves for bad management…and who can really blame them for doing that? Excuses!
There are rumors that he was going to delay the tariffs that kick in on Sunday but this doesn’t sound like a guy who is about to backtrack.

Dollar holds firmer amid shift in risk mood earlier

Markets are still largely more optimistic following Trump’s remarks on trade

EUR/USD H1 26-08

The dollar is holding firmer across the board following Trump’s more optimistic take on trade relations with China earlier in the European morning. Although the greenback has pared its advance against the aussie, it has notably gained against the euro, pound and yen.

EUR/USD is now trading near the lows for the day at around 1.1117 with the euro also finding little comfort from the latest German Ifo survey report moments ago.
Although the dollar is traditionally seen as a haven currency, one of the key factors affecting the currency now is Fed pricing.
Earlier in the day, Fed fund futures saw ~29% odds of the Fed cutting rates by 50 bps in September. After Trump’s remarks, those odds have been slashed to just ~15% now.
As such, that is helping to put a bid back in the dollar. Looking ahead, be wary of potential trade developments as it will continue to play a part in influencing Fed expectations ahead of the September FOMC meeting.

Trump pressured Mnuchin to name China a currency manipulator

Trump increasingly dictatorial

The Washington Post reports that Trump “exerted immense pressure” on Mnuchin to name China a currency manipulator.
One of the people with knowledge of Trump’s pressure on Mnuchin said the White House wanted China labeled as a currency manipulator so that it prod Chinese officials back to the negotiating table. This has proven unsuccessful so far. Instead, it has inflamed tensions between the two countries.
Read it here.

Chinese companies looking to buy U.S. farm products -Xinhua

Some Chinese companies are seeking new purchases of U.S. agricultural products, China’s official Xinhua News Agency said on Sunday, citing authorities, as Beijing and Washington look for ways to end a protracted trade war.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed at last month’s G-20 summit in Osaka to restart trade talks that stalled in May.

Trump said at the time he would not impose new tariffs and U.S. officials said China agreed to make agricultural purchases. But Trump said on July 11 that China was not living up to promises to buy U.S. farm goods.

Chinese businesses have made inquiries with U.S. exporters to buy crops and agricultural products and applied for the lifting of tariffs, Xinhua said, citing Chinese authorities. China’s Customs Tariff Commission will arrange for experts to appraise the Chinese companies’ tariff exclusion applications, Xinhua said.

“Relevant Chinese departments expressed hope that the United States would meet China halfway, and earnestly implement the United States’ relevant promises,” the news agency said, without elaborating.

The world’s two largest economies have been embroiled in a tariff battle since July 2018, as the United States presses China to address what it sees as decades of unfair and illegal trading practices. (more…)

Who Is Winning The Trade War?

China on Wednesday urged the Trump administration to “make up its mind” about reaching a trade deal with Beijing, warning that additional tariffs could send negotiations further off track. — South China Morning Post, July 17

We state emphatically,

Nobody Wins In A Trade War

We’re not sure how to even keep score in a trade war.  The relative performance of stock markets?  Economies?

Trade Deficit

President Trump likes to look at the bilateral trade deficit.   However, during his tenure, the cumulative trade deficit with China has increased by almost $100 billion, 8 percent higher relative to the prior 28 months before he took office.

 

China Trade War (more…)

US-China trade negotiations at ‘standstill’ as US weighs Huawei

Headlines crossing

Progress has stalled as Trump’s administration tries to figure out how to meet the agreement to allow some US firms to sell products to Huawei.
This thing sounds like it’s going to fall apart before it even gets going. Stocks finished on the lows.

Trump and Powell spoke for five minutes on May 20

No word on what they spoke about

I’m sure Trump just called to say how much he respected the Fed’s independence.
The report comes from the just-published calendar.
No word on what they spoke about

Here was the news wrap from May 20. There wasn’t much going on that day but Trump and Powell did both speak later that evening. Here were the comments from Powell. He also said that it was premature to make judgement on trade & tariff impacts on path for monetary policy.

Trump, China & the Fed

I think it’s entirely possible we leave Osaka with a mild escalation -something like expanded 10% tariffs – enough to scare both China & the Fed into more stimulus & a 50bps cut. Then walk it back in 2020 with a juiced economy. Same playbook as Iran/SA

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