Archives of “Politics of the United States” tag

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Trump sends letter to Pelosi criticizing impeachment process

  
  Analysis
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Letter from Pres. Trump to Speaker of the House Pelosi

The White House letter to Pelosi
  • Impeachment process cheapened
  • McConnell will decide on impeachment witness issue
  • He’ll let Senate decide when to vote on US MCA
  • Abuse of power charges completely baseless

You can read the full 6 page letter here

China likes Trump as US president: a “business man”, “would be glad to have him re-elected”

  
  Analysis
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Despite the US-China tensions it seems China is very happy to be negotiating with US President Trump.

Washington Post carries the endorsement:
  • “Trump is a businessman. We can just pay him money and the problems will be solved,” said a politically connected person in Beijing, speaking on the condition of anonymity 
  • he is “easy to read,” said Long Yongtu, a former vice minister of foreign trade
  • “We want Trump to be reelected; we would be glad to see that happen.”
Its worth checking out the article, there is plenty more. Here is the link and it isn’t long.
It makes the ‘China is waiting it out until after the US election’ point of view less valid?
China is very happy to be negotiating with US President Trump.

What’s on calendar today? Trump.

  
  Analysis
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That’s about it….

The calendar is bare. There will be no economic releases from NY or Canada.
As far as events, the focus will be squarely on the speech by Pres. Trump at the Economic Club of New York. That will be at 12 PM ET.  Will it be a rah-rah speech or will he speak more on China? If on China, the evergreen story always has the ability to push stocks higher on increased optimism for a trade deal (or lower on decreased optimism for a trade deal if he is particularly ornery).
There is another speaker… Fed Harker will speak also in New York at a Reuters event. There is no text expected, however, Q&A from audience is likely. The speech will start at 12:55 PM ET/1755 GMT.

The US/China deal can be delayed until December: Senior Trump administration official

  
  Analysis
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Negative moves in stocks… Yields move lower… Gold moves higher

  • Trump/Xi meeting to sign US–China trade deal could be delayed until December as discussions continue over terms and venue
  • Still possible US – China trade deal pack will not be reached, but deal more likely than not
  • Europe a likely venue for the Trump-Xi meeting with Switzerland and Sweden among sites under consideration. Iowa is not a likely
  • Push for more tariffs rollbacks not seen derailing progress toward trade deal
  • Believes China sees quick trade deal as best chance for favorable terms, given Trump’s electoral and impeachment pressures
The stocks have moved to a new session lows (modest declines are picking up steam a bit).
  • S&P index fell to a low of 3067.26. We currently trade at 3069.5
  • NASDAQ fell to a low of 8387.61. We currently trade at 8389.32
  • Dow fell to 27420.17 with the price currently at 27435
US yields moved lower as well with the 10 year at 1.824%, -3.5 basis points.
Gold prices have moved higher with spot gold up $9 or 0.61% at $1493 currently.
WTI crude oil futures have moved lower they trading near session lows at $56.33 (currently at $56.42).
The USDJPY has moved to a new session low at 108.83. The 200 hour moving average comes in at 108.659.  There is a risk off in risk pairs like USDCAD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD.

Trump invites southeast Asian leaders to US for special summit

  
  Analysis
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Trump makes a move

The geographical battleground of the trade war is in southeast Asia.
It’s an area where China is trying to expand and solidify ties while the US is trying to beat back Beijing. There’s a military component as well as China tries to dominate the South China Sea.
This weekend, Trump skipped the ASEAN summit, which is attempting to finalize the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership — a massive trade deal.
Trump’s move to invite Southeast Asian leaders will undoubtedly raise eyebrows in Beijing and further convince leaders there that the Phase One deal will probably only be a ceasefire and that the US is planning to curb China’s growth and influence.

China issued 10m tonnes quota for US soybeans purchases – report

  
  Analysis
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It’s not the 40-50m tonnes Trump talked about but it’s a start

The idea was never to buy all the soybeans at once, but over the course of a year. China nees the food.
Reuters reports that Chinese officials gave tariff-free quotas to soybean buyers for up to 10m tonnes.
It’s a sign of concrete progress and good faith in the trade war but it could all fall apart very quickly.

Trump blames the stock market decline on ‘impeachment nonsense’

  
Analysis, US Market
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Trump turns his eye away from the Fed

He’s not entirely wrong, the market didn’t like the impeachment headlines when they first hit. But I’d argue that’s because impeachment is more likely to make him erratic and reactionary, if not dangerous.
As for what’s caused the latest leg of US stock market selling, allow me to draw some conclusions:
Trump turns his eye away from the Fed
Here’s his tweet:
All of this impeachment nonsense, which is going nowhere, is driving the Stock Market, and your 401K’s, down. But that is exactly what the Democrats want to do. They are willing to hurt the Country, with only the 2020 Election in mind!
However I think in the big picture, you’re going to have a US election in 13 months. How do you have any confidence in stocks on a Warren vs Trump election? That’s a binary outcome.
If the impeachment talk had any bearing, it was because it hurt Biden as much as Trump and that solidified Warren’s lead. She went from +200K in betting odds on Sept 12 to +110 now.

Trump impeachment update – House has enough votes to impeach (no update on Senate)

  
Analysis, Politics
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Its going to be a job keeping up with developments on the impeachment inquiry.

Latest is
  • 218 House Members now support impeachment inquiry
  • Which is enough to impeach Trump in the House
As you’d all know, the numbers are not there in the Senate, where Trump’s party is in the majority).
Its going to be a job keeping up with developments on the impeachment inquiry.

Trump: Hopes for allowing China into WTO have failed

  
  Analysis
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Trump on China at the UN

Trump on China at the UN
  • China hasn’t adopted promised reforms
  • China uses heavy state subsidies, steals IP
  • Cites company stealing Micron’s products in China
  • WTO needs drastic change
  • World’s second-largest economy shouldn’t be allowed to call itself a developing country
  • The days of globalism are over
  • Says he’s placed tariffs on over $500B of Chinese goods
  • Hopefully we can find a deal that’s good for both countries, but I will not accept a bad deal
  • Says carefully watching situation in Hong Kong
  • Expects China to honor treaty on Hong Kong

If you’re China and listening to that, do you really think Trump wants to make a long-term deal?

Trump ready to escalate trade war if no deal, advisor says

  
  Analysis
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SCMP report

Trump has so far only imposed ‘low level tariffs’ and is prepared to escalate them further if no deal is agreed, Michael Pillsburt told the SCMP.
This is an interesting tidbit as well:
“It was very close and then something mysterious happened. China reneged,” Pillsbury said. “The mystery is the hardliners [in Beijing]. They apparently were not aware of the 150-page deal. They somehow became aware of it in April. Some new players got involved in Beijing and next thing we know their reneging took place.”
The location of the comments is also telling; the US is sending a message to China.
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