Ever seen an Ostrich with its head buried deep in the sand? There is a popular belief that the Ostrich buries its head in the sand, when in danger. It thinks that if it cannot see others, others can’t see it either.

That Ostrich is an example of Normalcy Bias. It happens to people who are facing a disaster. It causes people to underestimate the chances of the occurrence of the disaster. They think “it has not happened before, it will not happen again”, and live in denial. The result? People end up with less-than-adequate preparations for the disaster. And they cannot cope with the changed reality either.

Disaster planning and normalcy bias (more…)