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Hypothesis of the day

Hypothesis I thought of the other day daydreaming:

A test of lows or highs is similar to how when you break up with a lover you always go back for a second try to probe to see if you made the right decision. Both parties are usually willing (bulls/bears and man/woman or etc/etc. If test falls short, low/high rejection a new trend is formed or new high/low is formed and trend is resumed. If two partners give it a second try either their relationship moves to new deeper levels of intimacy or they split up and look for new partners.

Of course break out failures and failed failures happen, but at least the scenarios can be confined to a limited set of outcomes.

9 Trading Rules

1. Move: Always be flexible.  The beauty of the stock market is polygamy is perfectly acceptable.  Never get married to a particular position or a particular strategy.   The market is complex, dynamic and always changing.  Learn to change with it if necessary.

2.  Plan de Vida: Always invest with a plan.  Have strict rules and a machine-like approach.

3.  Downshift: Pulling yourself out of the game when you’re not certain will help you from making debilitating mistakes.  When in doubt get out.

4. 80% Rule: Never let more than 20% of your portfolio put 80% of your portfolio at risk.  Position sizing is key to risk management.

5. Hope is a 4 letter word: Holding and hoping is not a strategy.  Cut your losses, learn from it and never look back.   Never ever get into something you can’t get out of.

6. Understand your risks: You can’t avoid black swans, but they don’t have to rip your face off.  Understand your risks and your rewards.

7. Goals and accountability: Set goals and keep track of your performance.  You are responsible for your own decisions.  Own your mistakes.

8. Psychology: Learn to control your emotions and understand the emotions of those around you.  Always remember what General Patton said: “if everyone is thinking the same then someone isn’t thinking”.   Also the famous Buffett quote: “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”

9. Your Tribe: Always remember that there is more to life than investing.  Don’t live to invest.  Invest to live.  Being the richest man/woman in the graveyard is worthless if there isn’t anyone to bury you there.

9 Trading Rules

1. Move: Always be flexible.  The beauty of the stock market is polygamy is perfectly acceptable.  Never get married to a particular position or a particular strategy.   The market is complex, dynamic and always changing.  Learn to change with it if necessary.

2.  Plan de Vida: Always invest with a plan.  Have strict rules and a machine-like approach.

3.  Downshift: Pulling yourself out of the game when you’re not certain will help you from making debilitating mistakes.  When in doubt get out.

4. 80% Rule: Never let more than 20% of your portfolio put 80% of your portfolio at risk.  Position sizing is key to risk management.

5. Hope is a 4 letter word: Holding and hoping is not a strategy.  Cut your losses, learn from it and never look back.   Never ever get into something you can’t get out of.

6. Understand your risks: You can’t avoid black swans, but they don’t have to rip your face off.  Understand your risks and your rewards.

7. Goals and accountability: Set goals and keep track of your performance.  You are responsible for your own decisions.  Own your mistakes.

8. Psychology: Learn to control your emotions and understand the emotions of those around you.  Always remember what General Patton said: “if everyone is thinking the same then someone isn’t thinking”.   Also the famous Buffett quote: “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”

9. Your Tribe: Always remember that there is more to life than investing.  Don’t live to invest.  Invest to live.  Being the richest man/woman in the graveyard is worthless if there isn’t anyone to bury you there

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