Traders and investors have made and lost some of the world’s most significant pools of wealth. It’s no coincidence that many of the wealthiest individuals in the world today (and through history) have been successful investors. Names like Warren Buffet, George Soros, John Paulson, David Einhorn, Bill Gross and Sir John Templeton have become synonymous with strategies that have created astonishing success, in many case creating a groundswell of books and analysts who study their lives with a toothcomb to understand “what” the magic formula was…
Even outside these heavyweights of the trading world, hundreds of thousands of individuals around the world attest to have ‘the best‘ strategy to generate consistent positive returns (in fact, Google alone reveals over 10.4 million results when searching for best trading strategies). At a macro-level, the long-standing efficient market hypothesiswould make it notionally impossible for any trading strategy to be effective (as it asserts a level of information efficiency in the market). The past quarter century however, has seen a gradual move away from the efficient hypothesis to greater considerations of information asymmetry and behavioral biases driving inefficiencies (opportunities) in the market. So faced with this complexity, how do some traders generate such astonishing success?
To learn more, I spoke with Jack Schwager who is perhaps best known for his “Market Wizards” book series in which he has interviewed a cross section of the most successful traders and investors in the world. In May 2012 Jack released the latest book in this best-selling series, “Hedge Fund Market Wizards” (a behind-the-scenes look at the world of hedge funds, from fifteen traders who’ve consistently beaten the markets).
Jack Schwager is a recognized industry expert in futures and hedge funds and the author of a number of widely acclaimed financial books. He is currently the co-portfolio manager for the ADM Investor Services Diversified Strategies Fund, a portfolio of futures and FX managed accounts. He is also an advisor to Marketopper, an India-based quantitative trading firm, supervising a major project that will adapt their trading technology to trade a global futures portfolio. Previously, Mr. Schwager was a partner in the Fortune Group, a London-based hedge fund advisory firm, which specialized in creating customized hedge fund portfolios for institutional clients. His previous experience includes 22 years as Director of Futures research for some of Wall Street’s leading firms and ten years as the co-principal of a CTA.
Q: Is there a strategy or style which is most effective at generating return?
[Jack Schwager] The diversity of strategies people use is truly remarkable, I saw people using completely different strategies to the degree that if I had set out to invent 15 different strategies for a fictional work…. I couldn’t have made the strategies more different to the ones I saw in real life! This illustrates a point I have made in all my works insofar as there really is no ‘holy grail‘ or single style that is most effective. Those people looking for a single unified strategy are not asking the right question.
It’s a matter of finding an approach that works for the individual. A person has to know whether they are comfortable with fundamental or technical, long term or short term, certain types of markets, wider risk or less risk… You can go through a whole checklist of things and find it’s different for each individual.
Even when looking at differences between asset classes we see that every market can be traded using different strategies be they fundamental, technical, or a mixture. If we take equity markets we see that traders can use strategies including fundamental, value, extreme long term, and day. If you want a microcosm that proves diversity, there it is! (more…)
