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EU summit – one of the ‘frugals’ appear ready to accept a deal

Denmark reportedly ready to accept 400bn EUR in grants. Headline via Bloomberg.

Denmark is one of the frugal that were earlier holding out for 350bn EUR in grants. The full package is 750bn EUR, so that would leave 400bn in loans. Denmark is reportedly ready to accept 400bn in grants and 350bn in loans.
The frugals are:
  • Netherlands,
  • Austria,
  • Denmark
  • and Sweden
This is a positive input for EUR … deal edging closer. No word from the other 3 as yet though. And the deal would need agreement of all 27 EU leaders.

Risk ahead for the EURO this week

ECB policy review and European summit

German bunds were trading at -0.46% yesterday on the 10 year chart which is 10bps lower than a Bloomberg modelled curve mentioned on the Bloomberg Live Blog yesterday. This is most likely due to positioning ahead of the European Council’s summit.

On Friday and Saturday of this week EU policy makers will meet to discuss the proposed €750 billion recovery plan.The big questions is whether nations like Austria, Denmark, Sweden, Netherland and Finland will block the plan. The  issue is that these countries are opposed to the idea of large handouts on principle.However, despite their reluctance, the present crisis means their reticence may be seen as mean spirited in a time of shared humanitarian crisis. The pressure is for the countries concerned about the ideas of grants rather than loans to approve this proposed fund.On July 10 we had a German official state that Netherlands is unlikely to block the EU recovery fund which is supportive of the fund being accepted.

On Thursday we have the ECB rate meeting with little change expected. With the PEPP program increasing by €600 billion euros last month  it is unlikely that we see any changes to the PEPP program on Thursday.

The risk

If the recovery fund is rejected by the frugal four expect immediate downside for the EUR. However, given that the second day of the meeting is taking place over the weekend this is going to be weekend risk for the EUR.

ECB policy review and European summit

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