Archives of “Knowledge” tag

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Visualizing The Cost Of Living Around The World

  
Analysis, Education
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Imagine that users submitted hundreds of thousands of prices for everyday items, and that they all got compiled into a massive database. Then, suppose a worldwide index of prices was created that compared the cost of living across different places by using these many data points.

Well, that’s already happened at Numbeo which is the world’s largest database of user contributed data about cities and countries.

This infographic uses this information to show the most expensive and cheapest places to live by country. While it is missing some of the granularity of looking closer at individual regions and cities, it does do a good job of showing a broad perspective on living costs.

Switzerland and Norway may not surprise you as two of the most expensive countries. However, Venezuela might not have been a place that was on your radar. Of course, in retrospect, when you have inflation spiraling out of control at a rate of 64% per year, that will make things a bit pricey.

Want cheap goods and services? Head over to India, Nepal, and Pakistan. With about 1.5 billion people spread between those three countries, labour is cheap and the cost of living is very low. (more…)

Big Mistake Done By Traders

  
  Education
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The big mistake traders make is labeling challenges as problems.  A challenge is a function of growth, pushing one’s boundaries, becoming more than you presently are.  A problem is a shortcoming, a deficit, something to move past.
If you are never anxious, you are never pushing your boundaries.  Growth requires movement outside our comfort zones.  That brings uncertainty, nervousness, and doubt.  
The big mistake traders make is trying to eradicate uncertainty, nervousness, and doubt.  They want to trade with confidence and conviction.  They want to fearlessly pull the trigger.  So they stay in their comfort zones and they never grow and they never adapt to changing market conditions.
The trader who wants to develop embraces uncertainty, doubt, and fear.  Growth comes from mastering those, not erasing them.
The big mistake traders make is justifying stasis by calling it “sticking to a process”, “controlling emotions”, and “staying disciplined”.  Every uncertainty is a challenge.  Every challenge is an opportunity for growth.  Mastering challenges means we continually evolve our processes and make growth our discipline.  
If you want to overcome a “problem”, find the developmental challenge it brings to you.  Your problem is a gift.  Unwrap it.  Figure out how it will make you better.  Then tackle one small piece of the challenge and set yourself up for success.  Once you’ve gotten that under your belt, tackle the next piece, then the next.  Bryan was right: confidence comes from doing the things we fear, not from living a static life free of uncertainty.  

Three Emotions in Trading : FEAR, HOPE, AND GREED

  
  Education
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Fear, hope and greed are probably the three most common emotions traders deal with.  Holding on to losers, exiting too early, or jumping in before confirmation are just a few examples of the things we do when emotion manages our trades for us.  Trading without well-defined boundaries can be tempting, especially when things like intuition and “gut feeling” are things we take pride in as human beings.

We’ve all heard stories about how someone’s gut instinct helped them to avoid a dangerous situation or how someone’s intuition led them to make a perfect decision with little or no substantive information to guide them.  As powerful as these abilities may be in our human experience, I’ve learned that they have no place in trading.  I have found that what we perceive as gut instinct or intuition while trading is usually just fear, hope, or greed in disguise.

I address these three specific emotions using three boundaries:

1. Stop Loss- At what price point is my idea proven wrong? 

This boundary addresses the fear of realizing a loss.

2. Time limit- How long do I give this trade to work?

Hoping that a trade will eventually work out as price goes no where only ties up capital that could be used for better trades.

3. Target- At what price point does my idea come to an end?

Having a clear target for your idea keeps you from being greedy (Exiting the majority of a position at the target and letting profits run on the remainder is an effective way to address greed with winning positions).

Mauboussin: Three Steps to Effective Decision Making (Video )

  
Education, Video
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Making an important decision is never easy, but making the right decision is even more challenging. Effective decision-making isn’t just about accumulating information and going with what seems to make the most sense. Sometimes, internal biases can impact the way we seek out and process information, polluting the conclusions we reach in the process. It’s critical to be conscious of those tendencies and to accumulate the sort of fact-based and unbiased inputs that will result in the highest likelihood that a decision actually leads to the desired outcome. In this video, Michael Mauboussin, Credit Suisse’s Head of Financial Strategies, lays out three steps that can help focus a decision-maker’s thinking.

Make the Right Choice: Three Steps to Effective Decision Making 

Two Types of Intuition

  
  Education
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I distinguish two types of intuition – inherent and acquired. Inherent is the one you were born with and it is the end product of hundreds of thousands of years of evolution aka trying to survive in the fields. We are wired to seek instant gratification without a deeper thought about the future consequences, we are loss averse and stubborn.

While the inherent (core) intuition is the pre-installed software, each and everyone of us is born with, the acquired intuition is the upgrade we get through life as it is based on everything we experienced. Your brain remembers everything, even if you don’t realize it. Of course you can easily recall only the most vivid memories as depending on your everyday activity the brain has prioritized what is important and what is not.

When it comes to trading or investing, there is a reason you like some patterns more than others. The question is, should you trust your intuition? The contrarian school of thought in the market teaches that you should try to fade your intuition as it usually points you in the wrong direction. This is not always the case. If you have enough experience, your intuition is your biggest edge as it recognizes combinations of patterns and factors invisible for the normal eye. (more…)

2 Hidden Principles of Successful Traders

  
  Education
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1)  The ability to tolerate uncertainty – Suppose you take any particular configuration of price in a market; say, trading x% above or below a Y period moving average.  Then look at what that market does on average over the next Y period.  The odds are great that for any value of x and Y, the market’s directional tendency will be swamped by the variability of price within that next Y period.  What that means is that, on average, the signal to noise ratio for a directional trader is low.  Whatever directional tendency is present is generally not statistically significant and not readily tradeable.  Given such a situation, the modal opinion of any trader should be “I don’t know”.  Uncertainty is itself a view and, in fact, should be one’s base case.  When a trader cannot tolerate uncertainty and needs to manufacture conviction, the result inevitably is overtrading the objective opportunity set.  It is impossible to properly manage risk if you are intolerant of uncertainty.

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Simple Things For Creating A Great Trade

  
  Education
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Research is showing how powerful our mental context is in making risk decisions. But the thing is, most traders think mental context is about what they know – their insights, their indicators and their experience. In reality, it goes much further and deeper than that.

Recent experience that seems totally unrelated to trading counts. For example, if you work on a desk, then the adminis-trivia and in particular, its effect on your attitude will influence your trading. If your boss or colleague seemed to criticize – or compliment – you, it will influence your trading.

College students have been shown to walk slower after hearing the words gray hair, glasses, knee replacement. Interviewers have shown they can feel differently about a candidate depending on the temperature of the coffee cup they just held. Our unconscious sensory and information machine is working all of the time. It pays to make it an asset and not a liability. (more…)

Intuition & Vision in Trading

  
  Education
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 Intuition – A qualitative virtue recognized by few and held by even less. Our intuition is the byproduct of the analysis performed by our subconscious. It acts much like a muscle and requires exercise to develop and grow. Like a muscle, neglect can cause atrophy. Traders with a strong intuition built on a strong trading strategy put themselves in an ideal position to achieve consistent success in the market. Over time, traders can feel the energy a market gives off and can execute trades from this. It is an invaluable tool in one’s trading arsenal.

Vision – While total clairvoyance as to future price movement is unrealistic. It is my goal as a trader to assimilate as much information as possible with the goal of playing out scenarios that tie in together. It’s not always easy to do, yet understanding trading does not occur in a vacuum and markets do exhibit funny things get you mentally prepared to deal with these outlier events. Those that can think for themselves and need not rely on templatized news releases for their ideas usually put themselves in a position to benefit from their forward thinking.

We have heard many times about leaders who saw an industry trend before it happened. This was no accident. It came as a result of their understanding of their field and what could change it for the better. Traders who gain an understanding of how things can potentially play out and factor that into their trading strategy go a long way to keeping their objectivity when things unfold in a fast and volatile market.

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