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Trading Madness

Psychological BiasEffect on Investment BehaviorConsequence
OverconfidenceTrade too much.  Take too much risk and fail to diversifyPay too much in commissions and taxes.  Susceptible to big losses
AttachmentBecome emotionally attached to a security and see it through rose-colored glassesSusceptible to big losses
EndowmentWant to keep the securities receivedNot achieving a match between your investment goals and your investments
Status QuoHold back on changing your portfolioFailure to adjust asset allocation and begin contributing to retirement plan
Seeking PrideSell winners too soonLower return and higher taxes
Avoiding RegretHold losers too longLower return and higher taxes
House MoneyTake too much risk after winningSusceptible to big losses
Snake BitTake too little risk after losingLose chance for higher return in the long term
Get EvenTake too much risk trying to get break evenSusceptible to big losses
Social ValidationFeel that it must be good if others are investing in the securityParticipate in price bubble which ultimately causes you to buy high and sell low
Mental AccountingFail to diversifyNot receiving the highest return possible for the level of risk taken
Cognitive DissonanceIgnore information that conflicts with prior beliefs and decisionsReduces your ability to evaluate and monitor your investment choices
RepresentativenessThink things that seem similar must be alike.  So a good company must be a good investmentPurchase overpriced stocks
FamiliarityThink companies that you know seem better and saferFailure to diversify and put too much faith in the company in which you work
   

Investment philosophy

  • “Good information, thoughtful analysis, quick but not impulsive reactions, and knowledge of the historic interaction between companies, sectors, countries, and asset classes under similar circumstances in the past are all important ingredients in getting the legendary ‘it’ right that we all strive so desperately for.” 
  • “[T]here are no relationships or equations that always work. Quantitatively based solutions and asset-allocation equations invariably fail as they are designed to capture what would have worked in the previous cycle whereas the next one remains a riddle wrapped in an enigma. The successful macro investor must be some magical mixture of an acute analyst, an investment scholar, a listener, a historian, a river boat gambler, and be a voracious reader.Reading is crucial. Charlie Munger, a great investor and a very sagacious old guy, said it best: ‘I have said that in my whole life, I have known no wise person, over a broad subject matter who didn’t read all the time — none, zero. Now I know all kinds of shrewd people who by staying within a narrow area do very well without reading. But investment is a broad area. So if you think you’re going to be good at it and not read all the time you have a different idea than I do.'” 
  • “[T]he investment process is only half the battle. The other weighty component is struggling with yourself, and immunizing yourself from the psychological effects of the swings of markets, career risk, the pressure of benchmarks, competition, and the loneliness of the long distance runner.”  (more…)
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