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The Wisdom of Paul Tudor Jones

Here are some noteworthy quotes from the 80′s (yes 80′s) PBS special “Trader“, highlighting Paul Tudor Jones and his partner Peter Borish’s trading strategies. I’d like to thank Rodrigo for sending me this special, as I wasn’t familiar with Jone’s career. Even after a decade in the business you can still keep learning from successful traders in the hopes of fine tuning one’s craft.

What I found refreshing about Jones is his commitment to helping underprivileged high school students and his pledge to pay for their college education as long as they complete high school. And more importantly, the giving of his time each and every week to intervene in their lives.

“If life ever ceases to be an educational experience, I probably wouldn’t get out of bed.”

When the headlines are extremely negative day after day and the market refuses to go down, it’s “telling a different story than what the headlines are.” When the markets sell off in the morning and are bought up in the afternoon, it’s a sign of quite accumulation.

“After awhile size means nothing. It gets back to whether you’re making 100% rate of return on 10k or 100 million dollars. It doesn’t make any difference.”

“Trading requires an energy level, and it’s very difficult to sustain it 24 hrs a day, which is what this requires. To do the job right requires such an enormous amount of concentration that you’ve got to be able to…it’s physical and emotionally mandatory to find some time to relax, and you’ve got to be able to turn it off like that.”

“The whole world is simply nothing more than a flow chart for capital.” (more…)

Baker & Nofsinger, eds., Behavioral Finance

Behavioral Finance: Investors, Corporations, and Markets, edited by H. Kent Baker and John R. Nofsinger (Wiley, 2010) is a must-have book for anyone who wants a comprehensive review of the literature on behavioral finance. In thirty-six chapters academics from around the world write about the key concepts of behavioral finance, behavioral biases, behavioral aspects of asset pricing, behavioral corporate finance, investor behavior, and social influences. The book is hefty (757 pages of typographically dense text), and each contribution includes an extensive bibliography. But this is not simply a reference book; it reads surprisingly well.

Why should we study behavioral finance? “Anyone with a spouse, child, boss, or modicum of self-insight knows that the assumption of Homo economicus is false.” (p. 23) In our investing and trading—indeed, in all the financial decisions we make, we are prone to behavioral biases; we are often inconsistent in our choices. Only if we understand the kinds of emotional pulls that negatively affect our financial decisions can we begin to address them as problems. Some of the authors offer suggestions for overcoming these problems.

Here are a few takeaways from the book that give a sense of its tone and breadth.

First, I am happy to report that the literature shows that “high-IQ investors have better stock-picking abilities” than low-IQ investors and they “also appear more skillful because they incur lower transaction costs.” (p. 571) I figure that everyone reading this review falls into the Lake Wobegon category.

Second, individual investors can form powerful herds. “[T]rading by individuals is highly correlated and surprisingly persistent. …[I]ndividual investors tend to commit the same kind of behavioral biases at or around the same time [and hence] have the potential of aggregating. If this is the case, individual investors cannot be treated merely as noise traders but more like a giant institution in terms of their potential impact on the markets.” (p. 531)

Third, what are some of the behavioral factors affecting perceived risk? Although the author lists eleven factors, I’ll share just two. “Benefit: The more individuals perceive a benefit from a potential risky activity, the more accepting and less anxiety (fear) they feel…. Controllability: People undertake more risk when they perceive they are personally in control because they are more likely to trust their own abilities and skills….” (p. 139)

And finally, investors’ attitude toward risk is not fixed. They care about fluctuations in their wealth, not simply the total level. “[T]hey are much more sensitive to reductions in their wealth than to increases,” and “people are less risk averse after prior gains and more risk averse after prior losses.” (p. 355) Interestingly, CBOT traders tend to exhibit a different pattern, reducing risk in the afternoon if they’ve had a profitable morning.

As should be expected in this kind of volume, there is a fair amount of repetition. The same studies are quoted by several authors. We read about such topics as overconfidence and the disposition effect multiple times. The context is different, the principles are the same. But through repetition we come to appreciate the scope of behavioral finance (and often its limitations as well).

Although this book is certainly no primer, the reader needs only a passing familiarity with behavioral finance to profit from it. And for those who are better acquainted with the field, it is a useful compendium and an excellent research tool. It has earned a place in my library.

Cold Truth About Emotional Investing

Consider an excerpt:

WSJ: What do you mean by emotional finance?

PROF. TUCKETT: What we try to do in emotional finance is start with the fact that the future is unknowable. The key thing about uncertainty is that it inevitably generates feelings. Because it matters to you, because your money’s on the line, so to speak, you’re bound to feel emotionally engaged.

WSJ: Some people think pros are more rational than individual investors.

PROF. TAFFLER: Although most of the fund managers we interviewed saw part of their particular competitive advantage as remaining, as they described it, unemotional or rational, in practice they were just as emotional as anyone else when they started to talk about the stocks they had invested in. There were lots of examples where they referred to them almost as if they were lovers.

If you’re entering into an emotional relationship with a stock, an asset or a company that can let you down, this leads to anxiety, which is often not consciously acknowledged. But it’s there, bubbling beneath the surface.

WSJ: The fund managers told stories about their investments. What was the role you found that storytelling played in their decision making? (more…)

Cost of Mistakes

Overconfidence is a very serious problem, but you probably don’t think it affects you. That’s the tricky thing with overconfidence: the people who are most overconfident are the ones least likely to recognize it. We tend to think of it as someone else’s problem.

When it comes to investing, however, we all have a problem.

As we become more and more confident we become willing to take on more and more risk. Why? We start seeing risky behavior as, well, less risky. But the reality is that as the level of overconfidence increases, the cost of our mistakes increase as well. (more…)

Book review: Backstage Wall Street by Josh Brown

They say that everyone has one book in them: this is Josh Brown’s book. Backstage Wall Street is part autobiography, part financial advice, part a sarcastic, sober assessment of “Wall Street” for individual investors, part history, part financial product details, part uncovering of marketing schemes, part catharsis. The trademarked snarky humor is recognizable throughout the piece: I laughed out several times. Unlike many textbook-ish and stuffy finance investment books, this book is conversational, humble and non-assuming. At the same time, it does not always flow very well from chapter to chapter, in part because of the switch between anecdotes and theory. People looking for a fool-proof “system”, a Suze Orman diet vanilla coke read, or a data-heavy CFA curriculum-type handbook will be disappointed. This book might well be the equivalent of Monkey Business, a classic that covers the lives of junior investment bankers with the added bonus of useful advice.

Josh- widely known via his blog The Reformed Broker- had started out in the traditional brokerage world, something virtually unknown to young people: people calling you on the phone to sell you stocks, Bud Fox-style. The high-pressure sales environment, the churn, the conflicts are all described in painful detail. He even lays out the “straightline”: a widely used pitch to overcoming objections by the person at the other end of the line. But you would not buy a car designed by the salesman with the gaudy tie, should you buy “advice” from a telemarketer? Probably not in this day and age, hence the industry is on its way out. Josh is now an independent RIA whose interests are much better aligned with those of the clients.

The problem- with or without brokers calling you- is that most people are bad individual investors, and make suboptimal choices. This is similar to the issues faced with the wider retirement system: the decline of the defined benefit plans has “empowered” individuals with 401(k)s, and, for the most part, the experiment has not been a success. Josh lays out in detail the pricey marketing machinations employed by mutual funds and the brokers that sell them, and how the mutuals are getting replaced by ETFs. Josh also discusses the often grotesque ascent of the discount online brokerages, and the double-edged sword they are for non-professionals. He also covers the “research” controversy from the dot-com boom to the big settlement, and the general disservice it has been providing.
(more…)

Malaysia Islamic clerics forbid forex trading

Malaysia Islamic clerics forbid forex trading

Malaysia’s highest Islamic body has issued an edict forbidding foreign exchange trading by Muslim individuals, saying such speculation violates Islamic law.

The National Fatwa Council ruled forex trading by money changers or between banks was allowable but trading by individuals “creates confusion” among the faithful, according to a report issued Wednesday by state news agency Bernama.

Council chairman Abdul Shukor Husin warned “there are many doubts about it (forex trading) and it involves individuals using the Internet, with uncertain outcomes,” Bernama reported.

“A study by the committee found that such trading involved currency speculation, which contradicts Islamic law,” he was quoted saying.

Forex and religion don’t have a great history. The only time Jesus uses physical force is when heexpels the money-changers from the temple. Matthew 21:12-13:

And Jesus went into the temple of God, and cast out all of them who sold and bought in the temple, and overthrew the tables of the moneychangers, and the seats of them that sold doves,
And said unto them, It is written, My house shall be called the house of prayer; but ye have made it a den of thieves.

Skipping over any doctrinal issues, trading foreign currency is a terrible idea for individual investors. It’s a zero-sum game and you most likely won’t win.

You’ll notice that it’s always around forex that trading outfits style their sales pitches in order to lure in customers. If you’re saving for your retirement, trust me, stay away from forex.

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