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Bunting’s Laws of Investing

1. Sell stocks of companies that announce huge acquisitions, that overdiversify, or that spend a fortune on a lavish new headquarters.

2. Avoid stocks where management picks fights with analysts (or, by extension, hedge funds). See Overstock.com in 2005; Netflix in 2010.

3. Watch out when executives start selling a lot of stock — regardless of plausible-sounding excuses. Top execs in homebuilders, mortgage underwriters and Wall Street dumped billions before the 2008 crash.

4. “Run a mile” from all stocks in an industry going through a huge investment boom: Massive overcapacity and consequent collapse is inevitable.

5. Steer clear of investing in manufacturing companies. Their industries are usually plagued with extreme cycles of boom and bust, overcapacity and slumps.

6. Pay little attention to economists or market gurus.

7. Mistrust all mathematical trading formulas as well — they invariably fail just when you most need them to work.

8. Look for companies where the insiders are buying lots of stock.

9. Look for companies generating a lot of cash — a great sign of sustained outperformance.

10. Look for companies which have monopolies (or near monopolies), and those which manage to take out their main competitors.

11. Remember you are buying businesses, not just stocks. Pay close attention to the quality of the business, and especially the quality of the management.

12. Look for companies which have earned the trust of consumers, and which have very strong brand names.

Hedge Fund Market Wizards: Covel Interviews Schwager


Jack Schwager wrote the original Market Wizards books, two of the must read, seminal books for investors and traders.

His latest is Hedge Fund Market Wizards — it is a behind-the-scenes look at the world of hedge funds, from fifteen traders who’ve consistently outperformed.

Schwager explores the differences between great traders and everyone else who thinks they can trade. Rare insights into the trading philosophy and methods employed by some of the most profitable individuals in the hedge fund business.

 
Mike Covel interviews Schwager, and its very interesting:

Jack Schwager:

“Five Market Wizard Lessons” 
Hedge Fund Market Wizards is ultimately a search for insights to be drawn from the most successful market practitioners. The last chapter distills the wisdom of the 15 skilled traders interviewed into 40 key market lessons. A sampling is provided below: (more…)

French Doctor Accused Of Assisting Hedge Fund Manager Insider Trade

The Securities and Exchange Commission accused a French medical doctor with illegally tipping off a hedge-fund manager about the results of a clinical trial conducted by Human Genome Sciences Inc., prompting the manager to dump roughly six million shares of the drug maker. The SEC alleged in the civil complaint Tuesday that Dr. Yves M. Benhamou gave the hedge-fund manager nonpublic information about negative developments in the trial of the drug Albuferon, used to treat Hepatitis C, including that one trial participant had died…Over a period of weeks prior to the announcement, the hedge-fund manager ordered the sale of all Human Genome Sciences stock held by six hedge funds he co-managed, a stake of roughly six million shares, the SEC said. [WSJ]

Human decisions blamed for market rout

Human decisions to sell stocks may have been behind the August rout for equity markets after all, with hedge fund and mutual fund managers selling in response to turbulence and fears for the Chinese economy.

The conclusion, based on work by strategists at JPMorgan, is a riposte to those who have attempted to blame esoteric trading strategies such as “risk parity” for the size and speed of the summer correction.

“Discretionary managers were likely the ones responsible for the recent equity market sell-off,” said Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, global asset allocation strategist for the bank, in a note to clients.

Macro hedge funds and balanced mutual funds, both of which can invest in a variety of asset classes, took abrupt steps to reduce the risk of stock market losses during the month. The aggregate equity beta of portfolios, a measure of the relationship between equity index movements and those for individual investment funds, declined sharply in August.

The bank also found betas for so-called long-short hedge funds, stock market specialists, declined sharply in August as managers reacted to volatility by paring bets. JPMorgan’s work is based on a regression analysis of index movements, such as the HFRX, a hedge fund benchmark, as a proxy for fund holdings. (more…)

Walker, Wave Theory for Alternative Investments

Metaphors are tricky little beasts. Used well, they can make prose vivid; used poorly, they can sometimes become intrusive clichés. In the case of Stephen Todd Walker’s Wave Theory for Alternative Investments: Riding the Wave with Hedge Funds, Commodities, and Venture Capital (McGraw-Hill, 2011) the reader often yearns to move inland and be done with waves, surfers, and forced quotations. (Among the most egregious offenders in the quotation department is [on p. 309] the following: “In Herman Melville’s Moby Dick, the author explained that ‘[t]he sea was as a crucible of molten gold, that bubblingly leaps with light and heat.’ One can plainly see waves with the commodity gold.” Poor Melville and his “explanation.”)

Although the author pays lip service to Elliott wave theory, his waves are more generic. As he writes, “Wave theory is simply the belief that all securities move in waves (patterns, cycles, or trends).” (p. 3) Few people today would dispute this belief, so we can quickly dispense with any further talk about waves and move directly to the substance of the book—investing in venture capital, commodities, and hedge funds.

The most informative part of the book focuses on venture capital, with which the author was involved in the 1990s when he worked at Alex. Brown. He traces the history of venture capital, highlights some of the principal players, assesses the performance of venture capital, and discusses advantages and disadvantages for investors. One of the disadvantages is the phenomenon of capital calls. A client commits a certain amount of money, say $1 million. But “few funds take all the money up front today. As the venture fund identifies new opportunities, they will call on their investors to put more money into the fund…. Because these calls are random and over long periods (years), it can be burdensome to an investor. Should the investor (for whatever reason) decide not to invest, there are normally severe penalties.” (p. 172) (more…)

The Greatest Investment Book Ever Written

No, I’m not talking about Security Analysis or Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham or even Greenblatt’s You Can Be a Stock Market Genius.  I’m talking about Doyle Brunson’s Super System: A Course in Power Poker.  
OK, so the title of this post is a bit of an exaggeration and yes, there are probably tons of better poker books out there now post-extended-poker-boom.  The first edition of this book was published in 1978.  The connection between poker and trading is nothing new.  Just google “poker and trading” and there’s a lot of stuff out there; how poker guys started hedge funds, how a hedge fund guy became a poker guy, how they are similar/different, what can be learned from one or the other etc.   And the connection between gambling and trading was well documented in Fortune’s Formula.
But I just wanted to make a post about this book because I’m starting to reread it again (don’t ask).  I am not a poker player, but I remember reading this book a few years ago having borrowed it from a poker-playing friend.  Knowing that many traders and investors are very good poker players, I wanted to see what I can learn from reading about poker. 
I remember falling out of my chair at the similiarites between poker and investing.  I come from more of a trading background than an investing one and what was written in this book, particularly the early chapter “General Poker Strategy”,  has great advice that applies to traders and investors too.   I would make that chapter required reading along with the other investment “must reads”.
Anyway, here are some comments about what Brunson talks about in this chapter by sections.  I only comment on some of the stuff so this isn’t a summary of the chapter by any means.  (more…)

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