Trade data and ISM non manufacturing indices due out tomorrow
Tomorrow in the North American session will have the ADP employment report for the month of January will be released at 8:30 AM ET/1330 GMT. The estimate is for 158K. That near the expectations for nonfarm payroll on Friday of 162K.
The ADP is supposed to track the NFP numbers, but there can be some divergences as well.
The largest disparities came in November 2019 when nonfarm payroll was higher than ADP by 122K.
Back in February 2019 there was a larger disparity of 164K. However, in that month the ADP was higher than the nonfarm payroll.
The last 12 months has shown ADP vs NFP:
- Dec 202K vs 145K
- Nov 124K vs 256K
- Oct 121K vs 156K
- Sept 93K vs 180K
- Aug. 157K vs 168K
- July 142K vs 159K
- June 112K vs 193K
- May 41K vs 72K
- April 271K vs 224K
- March 151K vs 189K
- Feb 197K vs 33K
- Jan 300K vs 311K
The differences are:
- Dec ADP +57
- Nov NFP +122K
- Oct NFP +35K
- Sept NFP +87K
- Aug NFP +11K
- July NFP +17K
- June NFP +81K
- May NFP +31K
- April ADP +47
- March NFP +38K
- Feb ADP +164K
- Jan NFP +11K
The ADP average has been 159.25K
The NFP average has been 173.83K
So on average the ADP lags the NFP by about 14K.
Nine of the last 12 months had NFP higher.
There were only 3 months (including the last report), where the ADP was higher than NFP.
The releases tomorrow include:
- MBA mortgage applications. Last week they rose by 7.2%
- US trade balance for December will be released at 8:30 AM ET/1330 GMT with estimates of -48.2 billion versus -43.1 billion and November
- Canada will also release their international merchandise trade for December at 8:30 AM/1330 GMT. The estimate is for C$-0.61 billion versus C$-1.09 billion last month
- Markit US services PMI for January (F) is expected to come in at 53.2. That is unchanged from the preliminary reading. The composite index has no estimate but last month it was at 53.1
- ISM nonmanufacturing index for January is expected to come in at 55.1 versus 54.9 in December
Tonight at 9 PM ET, Pres. Trump will present the State of the Union address. He is expected to focus on the economy.