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The Essence of Success

Charles Dow used to counsel that no individual should ever be promoted if they hadn’t made a large error at some point. Phil Fisher used to insist only in investing in those stocks that had management teams willing to make big mistakes. If they didn’t make mistakes, they wouldn’t also take the risks required for success. Is this the essence of success? How does a corporate management team, upon the fruition of such errors, survive being “stopped out” of their positions in today’s hair twitch paradigm? Is being expropriated from your career rather than your capital not the bigger risk today? And thus can it only be stocks with founder, family or veto shareholdings that make for truly great growth stocks today? Should not Tim Cook undertake an LBO with the Qataris?

3 Trading Wisdom Thoughts

1) Focus on being profitable for the week – Individual trades may go against you and individual trading days can offer little opportunity. As a senior trader once explained to me, for the active trader, however, there are enough fresh opportunities in a week to make it reasonable to set a goal of being profitable for the week. You won’t reach your goal every single week, but the mere act of setting the goal keeps you focused. For example, you don’t want to lose so much money in a single day that you can’t make it back during the other days of the week. You also don’t want to lose so much money on a single trade that you can’t come back during the remainder of the day. When you really push yourself to be profitable every week, you don’t let individual days get away from you. And when you don’t let individual days get away from you, you start managing each trade carefully to ensure that your largest loss won’t exceed your largest gain. Time and again I’ve seen a consistent sign of progress among developing traders: they stop digging themselves into holes.
2) Take what the market gives you – Today I peeled out of several short positions after a spate of very negative TICK readings in the afternoon. I’ve learned that such concentrated selling often precedes nasty short-covering rallies. My S&P position hadn’t made as much profit as my NASDAQ and Russell positions, but the market doesn’t care about that. I took what the market gave me and started the week green. Did the market go down even further after I exited? Absolutely. As one experienced trader explained to me, when the market rewards your position right off the bat, you want to take something off the table. You might let a piece of your position ride if you have a longer-term opinion, but never give green a chance to become red. A winner that turns into a loser is a double loss. (more…)

Learn from Rafael Nadal

As I was watching Rafael Nadal put away Novak Djokovich this Monday night to win his first US Open, I couldn’t help but compare the qualities he has leveraged in improving his game to that of an aspiring trader. Nadal has literally willed himself into becoming the best tennis player in the world, amazingly enough, at a time when the best player possibly in history (Federer) is still in his prime. I was at the US Open earlier this week and marveled at how easy Federer positioned himself for each shot, and the best word I could use to describe him is efficient. Nadal however, can be best described as a machine that doesn’t quit. As I broke his game down, I realized that so many of the qualities he possesses have a corollary in the trading world.

  • Expand your playbook: When Nadal burst onto the scene, he was a dominant clay court specialist. Despite the incredible success early in his career on clay, his game needed improvement if he wanted to duplicate his success in other venues. He worked very hard to not only improve his serve, but also his net game to the point each of these areas are now pluses, on top of being the top baseliner in the game. He eventually won Wimbledon which is an incredible accomplishment for a player groomed as a baseliner. With the US Open under his belt, he is also one of the few to accomplish a career grand slam. A trader should not get too comfortable with only one setup, as the market will eventually change and render that setup less effective. Traders should constantly look to expand their playbook in order to have options in adapting to the markets. Being great at one play is very important, and should not be minimized, but traders should be willing to stretch themselves in order to improve as a trader.
  • Eliminate Mistakes: As I was watching the final set on Monday night, they mentioned that Nadal hadn’t made a single unforced error in the final set yet. I think he ended up with a single error in the last set when it was all said and done. This is flat out ridiculous. Nadal was playing someone who was at the top of their game and slugging it out toe to toe for many 20 plus shot rallies. This is probably one of the biggest reasons he is at the top right now. He doesn’t give away points; he makes the other player earn it. As a trader, you must eliminate needless mistakes. It is hard enough to take money consistently from the markets, let alone if you are struggling with mistakes. Common mistakes could include, trading sub par setups, letting stops slide, or not sizing a position properly. Make sure your trading methodology is clearly defined, and then trade it well.
  • Plays every single point: Another amazing quality Nadal has is the unwillingness to give up on a point. I’ve seen Nadal up 40-Love, standing 3 feet behind the baseline when his opponent hits a drop shot. This is a scenario where many players would concede the shot, content to be up 40-15 on the next point. I don’t think I have ever seen Nadal concede the shot. He hustle’s for every ball, which forces his opponents into more errors as they try to hit perfect shots. As a trader, you certainly don’t want to overtrade, but your job as a trader is to take advantage of opportunity when it is presented. You can’t do this if you are not at your desk waiting for each opportunity. Beyond just being there, you must be prepared, whether that entails pouring over charts before the markets open or running through potential market moving news events. It takes a high level of concentration to be able to sit and watch the markets for hours on end, especially when it is dull and lifeless, but all it takes is one single opportunity to make a traders day.
  • He is in excellent shape: Nadal may be in the best shape on tour. He slugs away for hours on end, and may hit the most balls overall on tour. If you think about it, his game is predicated on prolonged rallies which he usually wins. You must be in excellent shape in order to withstand 4 or 5 hours matches several times in a 2 week period. While a trader doesn’t have to be in the same physical shape as a world class athlete, being in good shape helps a trader remain balanced through the day and traders should definitely be well rested. One of a traders most important qualities is the ability to stay focused. Remaining focused is much easier when a trader isn’t dealing with ups and downs of a high sugar diet or dealing with only a few hours of sleep. While a trader can certainly deal with being tired once in a while, they will surely have frequent concentration lapses if they are in a constant battle with their diet and rest schedule.

Traders who are not happy with their performance should take a hard look at themselves and ask are they working hard enough. Nadal could have been content to win a few French Opens and hang around long enough in other tournament to get some decent payouts, but he kept working at improving his game. He has managed to become the best player in the world, and is already on his way to becoming one of the all time greats. When someone is this successful, it is never simply from talent alone. The Michael Jordan and Tiger Woods of this world do happen to be talented, but they also outwork their peers and are never satisfied.

Traders should constantly be looking for ways improve their game as the markets are one opponent that is also constantly evolving. It’s also worth noting, that a traders biggest adversary is themselves, much like any athlete who performs in a non team sport. It is not that easy to have lasting success in this field, but the ones who do have certainly adapted by constantly improving themselves.

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