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Saudi Arabia plans to increase oil exports by another 600k bpd starting from May

According to a Saudi energy ministry official

That will bring total crude oil exports by the kingdom to 10.6 mil bpd, as the official says the increase in exports is due to displacing crude with natural gas and drop in local demand.

Russia says that oil prices are very unpleasant, but not a catastrophe for the country

Comments by the Kremlin

  • There is no price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia
  • Our relations are good and doesn’t think anyone should intervene
  • Says Russia has safety buffer against unfavourable oil prices
I would argue that you have to read between the lines with this one. The fact that the OPEC+ joint technical committee meeting was cancelled goes to show that both sides aren’t exactly on speaking terms right now, so believe what you will.
In any case, their official stance still shows no backing down just yet.

Saudi Arabia’s head says attacks on oil facilities were an act of war by Iran

Saudi Arabia’s Crown prince in an interview on US TV

  • Said oil prices could spike to “unimaginably high numbers” if the world does not come together to deter Iran
  • said he would prefer a political solution to a military one
  • agreed with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo that the attacks were an act of war by Iran
  • a war between Saudi Arabia and Iran would collapse the global economy
US Sunday evening futures trade in oil is open, a little higher to begin the week.

Iran envoys says won’t rule out war

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif refused to rule out military conflict in the Middle East after the US sent more troops and weapons to Saudi Arabia in response to an attack on oil fields the US has blamed on the Islamic Republic.

“I’m not confident that we can avoid a war,” Zarif said in an interview with CBS to be broadcast Sunday on its “Face the Nation” program.

“I’m confident that we will not start one, but I’m confident that whoever starts one will not be the one who finishes it.”

When asked to elaborate, Zarif said: “That means that there won’t be a limited war.”

Zarif was interviewed in New York, where he will attend the United Nations General Assembly session.

The US said Friday it will send a “moderate” number of troops to the Middle East and missile defence capabilities to the Saudis in response to last weekend’s attack on oil facilities.

The foreign minister criticised the move. “I think it’s posturing,” Zarif said, according to a transcript provided by CBS. “I think it’s all going the wrong direction in addressing this issue.”

US and Saudi analyses of the attack have described the strike as complex, involving a mix of low-flying drones and cruise missiles coming from the north.

The attack exposed vulnerabilities in Saudi Arabia’s defence capabilities, despite the Kingdom having spent hundreds of billions of dollars on weaponry in recent years.

American officials blame Iran for the attack that knocked out half the production of oil from a key Saudi field.

Houthi rebels fighting a Saudi-led coalition in Yemen took credit for the attack.

“I’m confident that Iran did not play a role,” Zarif said. Anybody who “conducts an impartial investigation will reach that conclusion,” he said.

Markets eventually need to deal with the China reality

The situation in Saudi Arabia and focus on the Fed has took the spotlight away from China’s economic worries to start the week

China
  • China’s Premier Li says maintaining economic growth of 6% or more is very difficult
  • China Industrial Production in August 4.4% y/y (expected +5.2%)
  • China Retail sales for August: 7.5% y/y (expected +7.9%)
I still don’t think markets are paying much attention to the message emanating from China to start the new week, and that may be a sign of complacency.
Industrial production slowed to its weakest in 17 ½ years while retail sales slumped more than expected and the PBOC is still showing no signs of easing its lending rates just yet – as evident by today’s MLF operations.
Prospects of a trade deal may sound attractive for risk sentiment but it isn’t going to be a massive game changer to the slowing Chinese economy in my view. Domestic demand is weakening and that will continue to eat away at global economic growth.
Markets may be a bit distracted for the time being amid oil news, central bank focus, and hopeful optimism surrounding trade talks. But don’t expect that to stay the course for too long. The longer the ramifications of the above go unnoticed, the greater the hit it will have on markets when reality snaps back in.
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