Patience is a virtue, and no place does this truism hold more water than the stock market. When a trader allows doubt, a facet of fear, to inform his trading decision, he sets himself up for failure. The market does not care about the wants of an individual trader, whereas when making a turn across oncoming traffic, a mistake may result only in an oncoming driver slamming on his or her brakes in order to avoid an accident. The market will not extend such a courtesy. It will run over anyone and anything between it and where it is going without as much as an afterthought. It is the responsibility, not of the market to go where the trader wants it to go, but for the trader to determine the most likely course of the market and plan accordingly. Patience, achieved by a trader monitoring his internal dialogue, makes it possible.
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rssTrade What You See?
“Trade what you see” is a common mantra among short-term traders who formulate their trade ideas from charts. But do we process information from charts in accurate and non-biased ways?
An interesting set of studies reported in the 2003 Journal of Behavioral Finance suggest that perceptual biases in what we see can skew our trading and investment decisions.
Specifically, when investors see a chart that has a salient high point, they are more likely to want to buy that stock. When the chart depicts a salient low point, they are more apt to sell. In the words of the authors, “expectations about future prices assimilated to extreme past prices.”
The authors found that, when a chart contained a highly noticeable high point, traders listed more favorable features of the stock; when the chart depicted a salient low, more negative aspects of the stock were emphasized. Their analyses suggest that charts affect investors by providing them with enhanced access to either positive or negative information about the stock. In other words, our processing of the chart creates a selective bias in retrieval, leading us to view shares in artificially positive or negative ways.
It isn’t too far from the authors’ finding to a broader psychological hypothesis that *any* highly salient feature of a trading situation may skew information retrieval, perception, and action. For instance, the salient information may be a recent large gain or loss; a dramatic market move; or a piece of news. Trading what we see might be dangerous for the same reason that it is dangerous to trade what we hear or what we feel.
When one facet of a situation becomes highly salient to us, we overweight it in our perception and information processing. Our ability to view the entire situation in perspective is compromised. What is most obvious in a chart–or in our minds–may not be an accurate reflection of underlying supply and demand in a marketplace.
What Trading Teaches Us About Life
Trading is a crucible of life: it distills, in a matter of minutes, the basic human challenge: the need to judge, plan, and seek values under conditions of risk and uncertainty. In mastering trading, we necessarily face and master ourselves. Very few arenas of life so immediately reward self-development–and punish its absence.
So many life lessons can be culled from trading and the markets:
1) Have a firm stop-loss point for all activities: jobs, relationships, and personal involvements. Successful people are successful because they cut their losing experiences short and ride winning experiences.
2) Diversification works well in life and markets. Multiple, non-correlated sources of fulfillment make it easier to take risks in any one facet of life.
3) In life as in markets, chance truly favors those who are prepared to benefit. Failing to plan truly is planning to fail.
4) Success in trading and life comes from knowing your edge, pressing it when you have the opportunity, and sitting back when that edge is no longer present.
5) Risks and rewards are always proportional. The latter, in life as in markets, requires prudent management of the former.
6) Happiness is the profit we harvest from life. All life’s activities should be periodically reviewed for their return on investment.
7) Embrace change: With volatility comes opportunity, as well as danger.
8) All trends and cycles come to an end. Who anticipates the future, profits.
9) The worst decisions, in life and markets, come from extremes: overconfidence and a lack of confidence.
10) A formula for success in life and finance: never hold an investment that you would not be willing to purchase afresh today.