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IMF is $318 billion short of solvency

  
Economy, Education
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Those observing the emperor’s lack of clothing are multiplying. Earlier today, someone opened their mouth, and remarked on the blatantly obvious. Next thing you know Hungarian CDS was 30% wider, Romanian bond auctions were failing, the euro was tumbling, the PPT was scrambling, US markets closed green with nobody trading, etc. Yet the “letting the genie out of the bottle” award of the day has to go to the head of IMF’s policy-steering committee, Youssef Boutros-Ghali who said that the IMF is essentially insolvent in its current form of being the go to backstop for a European bailout. “If we are going to start including funds made available to Europe, then the IMF is not properly resourced,” Youssef Boutros-Ghali told Reuters, adding that IMF members were talking of doubling the amount of SDRs. The means the IMF is $318 billion short of solvency. And what is the IMF long? Why gold…3,005 tonnes worth.

The IMF has to have more resources after the support for Greece and needs to “very significantly” increase the amount of special drawing rights, the head of the Fund’s policy-steering committee said on Friday.

What does this mean in English? The IMF currently has 204 billion in allocated SDR to member countries (or $318 billion). Boutros-Ghali has basically said that in order to preserve its front-man status as a world bailout force (just because the Fed knows that the political whiplash of it being the bailout provider of last resort would mean the end of it, thus needing a strawman such as the IMF), the IMF will need to raise another $318 billion. Where will the IMF get that money? Here’s an idea: the IMF holds 3,005 tons of Gold. At today’s fixing, this equates to just over $116 billion (and much more should the price of gold mysteriously skyrocket). Of course, any fiction that the SDR is backed by gold will then disappear, but it’s not as if anyone even remotely pretends that any fiat currency (and the SDR is no exception) has any value left whatsoever. And since the US will end up having to fund the bulk of the SDR allocation, at least US taxpayers would be on the hook for a far more manageable $200 billion that the IMF needs in order to fully bail out Greece and everyone else in Europe.

 

The Emperor’s Three Questions & Answers for Traders

  
  Education
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Tolstoy’s story “The Emperor’s Three Questions” poses three questions:

1. What is the best time to do each thing?

2. Who are the most important people to be with?

3. What is the most significant thing to do at all times?

In the story, the Emperor traveled far and wide in his Kingdom to find the answers.  One day, he came upon a hermit who lived in a small hut atop a high hill. When asked these questions, the humble hermit replied:

1. The most important time is now, because that is the only time over which you have  power and control.

2. The most important person is the one you are with right now because you never know if you will be with that person again.

3. The most significant thing to do at all times is be happy and share that happiness with the person you are with.

The trading lessons are simple—but not so easy:

1. Be with the trade you are in at the moment.  Stop trying to control anything but your own trade.  The markets are going to do exactly what they want to and when they want to. YOU have the power to control what YOU feel, think, believe and do.

2.  All that matters for you is the trade you are in.  You may never see that trade again.  Savor it, cherish it and be with it for as long as it lasts.

3. Celebrate your victories with yourself.  Celebrate the trade and with the trade.  The instruction is to refrain from boasting or grandiose behavior when you make a winning trade.  The markets will humble you, and pride always comes before a fall. Napoleon said that the most dangerous moments come with victory. Decry and avoid hubris.

Also celebrate your defeats with yourself and the trade because they are mistakes.  Mistakes are our greatest teachers because it is through them that we learn. What do we learn?  Not to make them again!

Constantly strive to look inward, to know yourself, to raise yourself to the highest level of authenticity.  Be rigorously honest about who you are.

Taking personal responsibility for your thoughts, feelings and actions is the first step to true inner peace—both in trading and in life.  Never forget the ten most important words you can ever and always ask yourself:

Am I doing the best I can do right now?

The ultimate victory in competition is derived from the inner satisfaction of knowing that you have done your best and that you have gotten the most out of what you had to give…Howard Cosell

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